The Kobeissi Letter

September 2026 · 368 items

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Voice · person

September 2026 · spoke in 368 items · 8 topics

Sep 1 → Oct 1, 05:30 ET · Last update Oct 9, 19:44 ET

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Sceptical

The Kobeissi Letter focused heavily on a sharp bond-market selloff, arguing that rising inflation, oil prices, deficits and the Iran War were pushing borrowing costs higher and making Treasury intervention ineffective ¹⁸⁴¹⁵³⁵⁵. It also tracked the Fed’s expected shift toward rate hikes, warning that markets had moved from pricing substantial cuts to pricing further tightening ²²⁷. Other major subjects were Middle East energy and diplomacy, with oil-supply disruptions and Iran negotiations driving large market moves ¹¹¹⁶³⁸⁴⁶. The account additionally discussed AI competition and regulation, trade realignment, deteriorating consumer sentiment and investor bearishness ³³⁴⁰⁵⁷²³.

On the record

last 30 days · 50 positions

Their calls

✓ 3✗ 1 4 settled in September 2026

✗✓✓✓

✓ Called it 10-year Treasury yield at or above 5.13% · US 10Y Note “The 10Y yield is moving in a straight line higher to 5.13% and the move is unsustainable.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 23 · settled Sep 24 the post ↗ It did: 10-year Treasury yield 5.18% on Sep 24.
The chart
✓ Called it 10-year Treasury yield at or above 5.00% · 10Y Note “The 10Y Note yield is pushing toward 5.00%.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 10 · settled Sep 15 the post ↗ It did: 10-year Treasury yield 5.00% on Sep 15.
The chart
✓ Called it 10-year Treasury yield at or above 5.00% by Sep 16 · 10Y Note “The Kobeissi Letter expects the 10Y Note yield to keep rising, above 5.00% by next week absent an end to the Iran War.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 9 · settled Sep 15 the post ↗ It did: 10-year Treasury yield 5.00% on Sep 15.
The chart
✗ Missed WTI crude futures at or above $100.00 by Sep 11 · oil “US oil prices are surging and will top $100 by Friday at the current pace.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 8 · settled Sep 11 the post ↗ It didn't: WTI crude futures $95.94 on Sep 11.
The chart

Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.

inflation +1.7 · 6 AI +1.3 · 6 Federal Reserve System +1.6 · 5 bond market -0.8 · 5 S&P 500 +0.5 · 4 US dollar -0.5 · 4 diesel +2.0 · 3 10Y Note +1.7 · 3

Latest positions

TKThe Kobeissi LetterBearish on treasuries Seasonality and history suggest Treasuries will keep falling in October. “History says Treasuries are likely to face more pressure.” Open the post Treasury seasonality points to further weakness … · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterBearish on 10Y Treasury note futures Treasury seasonality points to further weakness ahead for 10Y note futures. “Treasury seasonality points to further weakness ahead” Open the post Treasury seasonality points to further weakness … · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish on 30Y mortgage The host expects 30Y mortgage rates to keep climbing, with 8% within days. “At this rate, 8% mortgages are just days away.” Open the post BREAKING: The average interest rate on a 30Y Mor… · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish on 30Y Note The host notes the 30Y Note yield has just hit a fresh 24-year high and mortgage rates have yet to reflect it. “Today's rates also have yet to account for the move into a fresh 24-year high on the US 30Y Note yield just now.” Open the post BREAKING: The average interest rate on a 30Y Mor… · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply falling on US labor market The US labor market is weak, with vacancies barely exceeding unemployed workers. “The Fed cannot ignore the weak US labor market.” Open the post BREAKING: US job openings dropped -256,000 in Au… · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterFor on Federal Reserve System The Fed should act on the weak labor market rather than ignore it. “The Fed cannot ignore the weak US labor market.” Open the post BREAKING: US job openings dropped -256,000 in Au… · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish on tokenized equities Tokenized equities are breaking records and the trend is still early, with market cap at a record $3.5B and growth accelerating. “Tokenized equities are breaking records, and we are still early.” Open the post Tokenized equities are breaking records, and we … · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish on tokenized assets The push toward tokenization is in full swing, with Jupiter leading the move into tokenized assets. “The push toward tokenization is in full-swing.” Open the post Tokenized equities are breaking records, and we … · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterFalling on PCE inflation data The market will heavily discount today's PCE inflation data because the methodology change reduces measured inflation. “The market will heavily discount today's PCE inflation data.” Open the post The market will heavily discount today's PCE inf… · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterFalling on HEADLINE PCE INFLATION Headline PCE inflation was revised down by 30 basis points for July, though not all of it is genuine disinflation. “both headline and Core PCE inflation were revised down by 30 basis points for July” Open the post The market will heavily discount today's PCE inf… · 30 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish on Bitcoin The Kobeissi Letter says crypto is in a new bull market, expecting Bitcoin to keep rising. “Crypto is in a new bull market.” Open the post BREAKING: Bitcoin is up +43.1% so far in Q3 2026… · 29 Sept
TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish on 10Y Note The 10Y Note yield is surging to its highest level since June 2002. “long-term yields surge to their highest level since June 2002” Open the post What is happening here. The bond market is now … · 29 Sept

Their output

368 in September 2026

Mon 31Wed 9 · 24Thu 1

Stories it travels in

The stories

○ a voice, on the left
◌ a voice raising half of these
● a subject, on the right, under its story
⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story

The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.

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