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Oil & Geopolitics

Past edition
Oct 12 · 21 voices
i

About this edition

49 items · printed Oct 12, 09:35 ET

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Geopolitical escalation remained severe, but oil-price signals were contested as markets looked through some of the risks.

WTI $92.85 +2.0%closes of Oct 12

The period was dominated by Middle East escalation, especially attacks involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the Strait of Hormuz, with competing interpretations of what this meant for crude prices and supply risk 15223543. Russia-Ukraine developments were discussed through an energy-ceasefire proposal, Ukrainian strikes and possible Russian diesel supplies, while diesel-market tightness remained a major concern 113254044. The followed topics energy shock, diesel export ban, diesel crack spread, LNG, natural gas, oil exports and several other listed themes received no direct attention in this pool, despite being followed.

+1621 voices

What happened

Middle East escalation intensified with Houthi and other attacks hitting Saudi airports and tankers, raising risks to the Strait of Hormuz and prompting regional military and diplomatic reactions.1522242535

3 of 21

Oil prices fell modestly even as Brent remained above $100, reflecting contested market interpretation of geopolitical risk.81332

3 of 21

The global diesel market is tight (about 1mn b/d deficit) and officials/agencies urged releases and deals — including a U.S. Russian diesel arrangement defended by the administration — to alleviate prices.134044

2 of 21
Show 1 moreShow fewer

Saudi officials and OPEC participants emphasized investment/refining concerns and Saudi Arabia said its energy supply capability remains resilient.36921

3 of 21

“The global diesel market is facing an estimated 1 million b/d supply deficit”

AB Amena BakrOct 12 Open the source

The desk

How the desk is calling it

29 of 43 voices lean bullish on crude. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 3 calls open.

Where they stand · crude

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish
  • range-bound

WTI crude futures · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

WTI crude futures, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-12, where the desk's voices took positions$90$95$100Sep 15Oct 1Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here.Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade.Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge.Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge.Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike.Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals.Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall.Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week.Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace.Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices.Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation.Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective.Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer.Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again.Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut.Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher.David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices.Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely.David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze.Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down.Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows.Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock.Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher.Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens.J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it.Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation.Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility.Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.
WTI crude futures, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-12, where the desk's voices took positions$90$95$100Sep 15Oct 1Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge.Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge.Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike.Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals.Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall.Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week.Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace.Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices.Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation.Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective.Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer.Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again.Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut.Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher.David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices.Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely.David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze.Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down.Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows.Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock.Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher.Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens.J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it.Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation.Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility.Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.
WTI crude futures, 2026-07-14 to 2026-10-12, with 43 desk voices' positions$80$90$100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here.Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade.Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge.Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge.Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike.Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals.Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall.Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week.Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace.Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices.Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation.Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective.Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer.Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again.Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut.Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher.David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices.Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely.David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze.Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down.Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows.Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock.Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher.Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens.J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it.Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation.Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility.Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.

WTI crude futures rose from $78.68 to $92.85 since Jul 14. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 29 bullish, 13 bearish, 1 range-bound.

Their record ✓ 1✗ 0

✓Brent ≥ $120.00: Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○Diplomatic resolution in the Middle East before the midterms: Joseph Wang.
○December heating oil around $350: Mike McGlone.
○40,000 tonnes of refined zinc exports in September: Natalie Scott-Gray.

What settles next

3 NovWTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway: “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $92.85, −16.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 DecWTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz: “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $92.85, −24.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

Bloomberg

Reporting flagged deadly Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and emphasized regional escalation and resilient Saudi supply capabilities.91524

GA

Guy Adami

Markets may be assuaged if the war ends, which would push crude lower and help yields, though a market downturn could also force a flight to quality.2

Dan Nathan

Investors' perception of a flight to quality into U.S. Treasuries is important but uncertain amid broader debt concerns.2

Anas Alhajji

OPEC officials are discussing refining-sector problems and Saudi infrastructure like the East‑West Pipeline as energy insurance and Riyadh is being framed as the energy security capital.3742

JS

James Stanley

Despite headlines, crude looks like it's trying to bottom and cannot be ignored by market participants.8

Amena Bakr

Brent remains above $100 while oil is down ~1.3%, and the diesel market faces about a 1mn b/d deficit that could be partly eased by strategic releases or more Russian diesel.13

Michael Every

Forward‑looking markets are selling oil today even as geopolitics worsen, and the region's instability casts doubt on the market narrative.2225

Rory Johnston

Recent Hormuz transit counts show over 10mn bpd cleared the Strait in recent days but figures are likely understated and subject to upward revision.43

Robin Brooks

Iran's tanker attacks reflect a desperate attempt to reassert control of the Strait of Hormuz and signal regime weakness amid economic stress.47

Walter Bloomberg

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended a Russian diesel deal as legally implementable and good for lowering U.S. diesel prices.44

The Kobeissi Letter

Market breadth data show energy has held up relatively better while most S&P sectors are deeply down from highs.33

9 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Ben Carlson, Daniel Lacalle, Erik Townsend, Evan, Jack Farley, John Kemp, Joseph Wang, Nate Hagens, TankerTrackers.com, Inc., Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )

More from the desk

Middle East escalation and supply riskSources highlighted repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, tanker strikes around Hormuz and the possibility of wider US involvement. Rory Johnston estimated that more than 10 million barrels per day had recently cleared Hormuz, but warned that transit data were understated and uncertain.

Sources highlighted repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, tanker strikes around Hormuz and the possibility of wider US involvement 152435. Rory Johnston estimated that more than 10 million barrels per day had recently cleared Hormuz, but warned that transit data were understated and uncertain 43.

Oil prices versus geopolitical riskAmena Bakr reported oil prices lower by about 1.3% while Brent remained above $100, despite an estimated global diesel deficit of 1 million barrels per day. Michael Every argued that markets were selling oil despite an increasingly unstable geopolitical backdrop, while Rory Johnston sarcastically framed the explosions as bearish for crude. James Stanley said WTI had declined for another week but appeared to be trying to form a bottom, while warning that oil headlines were unreliable.

Amena Bakr reported oil prices lower by about 1.3% while Brent remained above $100, despite an estimated global diesel deficit of 1 million barrels per day 13. Michael Every argued that markets were selling oil despite an increasingly unstable geopolitical backdrop, while Rory Johnston sarcastically framed the explosions as bearish for crude 2227. James Stanley said WTI had declined for another week but appeared to be trying to form a bottom, while warning that oil headlines were unreliable 8.

Diesel supply, Russia and refiningThe IEA urged members to accelerate pledged diesel releases and consider supplying more as global markets tightened. Bessent said the Russian diesel deal would proceed despite legal questions and would reduce US diesel prices, while an EU diplomat instead urged Trump to impose further sanctions on Russia rather than strike diesel deals. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister attributed the current crisis partly to countries abandoning refining systems.

The IEA urged members to accelerate pledged diesel releases and consider supplying more as global markets tightened 40. Bessent said the Russian diesel deal would proceed despite legal questions and would reduce US diesel prices 44, while an EU diplomat instead urged Trump to impose further sanctions on Russia rather than strike diesel deals 14. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister attributed the current crisis partly to countries abandoning refining systems 21.

Ukraine-Russia energy conflictZelenskyy said Ukraine would continue long-range strikes against Russia unless Moscow accepted an energy ceasefire. Coverage also described Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants despite an announced ceasefire, and linked hopes for an energy truce to lower oil prices and increased supply.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine would continue long-range strikes against Russia unless Moscow accepted an energy ceasefire 1. Coverage also described Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants despite an announced ceasefire, and linked hopes for an energy truce to lower oil prices and increased supply 25.

Energy investment and regional positioningOPEC-related material focused on refining-sector problems, the need for investment and factors affecting oil prices. Other commentary presented Saudi energy capacity and the East-West Pipeline as forms of resilience or insurance, while discussion of Iraq portrayed Big Oil as continuing to pursue opportunities amid war.

OPEC-related material focused on refining-sector problems, the need for investment and factors affecting oil prices 36. Other commentary presented Saudi energy capacity and the East-West Pipeline as forms of resilience or insurance, while discussion of Iraq portrayed Big Oil as continuing to pursue opportunities amid war 7910.

Earlier editions

Oct 14 The central claim was that the Iran conflict had reduced and distorted oil flows without producing a $200 oil › Oct 14 Hormuz and regional attacks were presented as sustaining a costly refined-product and shipping shock, even as › Oct 13 Oil supply has partly normalised, but Hormuz risk, shipping costs and tight diesel markets kept the energy sho › Oct 13 The main disagreement was whether the oil-market constraint was an immediate crude-transit shock or a refining › Oct 12 Hormuz and refining constraints kept the energy market tight, but the scale and persistence of the supply shoc › Oct 11 Hormuz attacks and the Russia-Ukraine energy dispute dominated, with disagreement over the severity of the oil › Oct 11 Hormuz attacks and the broader Iran conflict were portrayed as the central oil-market risk, but views diverged › Oct 10 Diesel and broader refined-fuel scarcity, rather than crude alone, was presented as the central market vulnera ›