Hormuz and refining constraints kept the energy market tight, but the scale and persistence of the supply shock were disputed.
WTI $93.16 +2.4% Diesel $4.71 +1.8% Oct 6 Gasoline $4.35 +7.0% Oct closes of Oct 6–Oct 12
The period’s pool focused on the Iran war, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks, crude and refined-product supply, and the implications for oil and diesel prices. Participants broadly described Middle East disruption as keeping energy prices elevated, while differing over whether Russian diesel, recovering flows, or reduced risk premia could materially ease the market 12 22 28 44 . Refining capacity and inventories were repeatedly presented as more immediate bottlenecks than crude production or tanker transit alone 13 18 . The followed topics ban on diesel exports, diesel export ban, export ban, energy shock, US-Iran war, blockade, and several others received no attention in the supplied pool, despite being followed.
What happened
Markets were focused on Iran-related risks around the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on tankers that have tightened energy flows and kept prices elevated.8 12 19
3 of 34
An announced deal for additional Russian diesel shipments prompted talk that it could ease product tightness but not resolve Gulf shipping risks.22 28
1 of 34
Analysts and officials flagged refining capacity shortfalls and low inventories as the immediate bottleneck for diesel and other middle distillates.13 18 37
3 of 34
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Some argued Persian Gulf crude flows have materially recovered from wartime lows, implying excessive risk premia in prices.21 24
2 of 34
“There is no easy way out.”
Where they disagree Whether Russian diesel would materially ease fuel prices
FC Russian diesel could help22 44
2 voices
Deal unlikely to lower prices25 28
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
30 of 45 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 3 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart ✕ WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 9 Full · since Jul 14 WTI crude futures, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-12, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. WTI crude futures, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-12, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. WTI crude futures, 2026-07-14 to 2026-10-12, with 45 desk voices' positions $80 $90 $100 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. WTI crude futures rose from $78.68 to $93.16 since Jul 14. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 30 bullish, 14 bearish, 1 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Brent ≥ $120.00 : Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○ offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run : Charles Lemonides.
○ oil to reclaim $95 if 50 EMA support holds : Fiona Cincotta.
○ Diplomatic resolution in the Middle East before the midterms : Joseph Wang.
What settles next
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $93.16, −16.3% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $93.16, −24.9% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date 6-month check
Mike McGlone : “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00 No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.
The voices
FC Fiona Cincotta
Additional Russian diesel volumes could ease some refined-product tightness but will do little to resolve the larger Gulf shipping-risk that keeps prices elevated.22
John Kemp
Global refinery capacity constraints and low fuel inventories, not crude output or tanker transit through Hormuz, are the major bottlenecks driving market positioning.18
BS Bruno Santos
A global refining crisis with about 14% of capacity offline and depleted U.S. diesel stocks underpins a tight diesel market and the export-restriction debate.13
EB Elisabeth Braw
Iran’s actions over cables and tolls in the Strait of Hormuz reflect a deteriorating maritime order that raises enforcement questions and risks to transit.3
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Supertankers are turning away from Gulf transfer hubs amid Iran’s attacks, raising fresh concerns about the sustainability of oil flows through the waterway.12
Robin Brooks
Persian Gulf oil volumes are around 13 mb/d versus a recent high of 16.5 mb/d, meaning flows are much improved from the height of the war and too much risk premium may be priced in.24
Javier Blas
Global crude oil in transit has surged to an almost all-time high, signaling large movements of crude despite the conflict.21
Amena Bakr
The global diesel market faces about a 1 million b/d deficit into peak demand, and European stock releases plus returning Russian diesel could temporarily halve that gap over 90 days.44
Anas Alhajji
OPEC’s secretary general stressed refining-sector problems and the need for investment, highlighting the role of refining capacity in current market tightness.37 40
Walter Bloomberg
Former U.S. Defense Secretary warned the Iran war has no easy way out and criticized the Russian diesel deal as unlikely to significantly lower fuel prices and potentially aiding Moscow.25
11 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Erik Townsend, Evan, Joseph Wang, Michael Every, Nate Hagens, TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
More from the desk Hormuz disruption and geopolitical risk Elisabeth Braw argued that Iran’s ability to impose tolls or impede maritime rules reflected a weakened enforcement order, while other commentary said Hormuz normalisation might occur without a formal deal. Elisabeth Braw argued that Iran’s ability to impose tolls or impede maritime rules reflected a weakened enforcement order, while other commentary said Hormuz normalisation might occur without a formal deal 3 30 .
Russian diesel as a possible relief valve Trump’s proposed Russian diesel shipments were presented as capable of easing refined-product tightness, but initially limited relative to global demand. The supplied coverage also reported Jefferies’ view that the deal was unlikely to materially lower US diesel prices because only 300,000 tons were expected initially and the supply would serve global markets. Trump’s proposed Russian diesel shipments were presented as capable of easing refined-product tightness, but initially limited relative to global demand 22 . The supplied coverage also reported Jefferies’ view that the deal was unlikely to materially lower US diesel prices because only 300,000 tons were expected initially and the supply would serve global markets 28 .
Crude-price outlook and market positioning Investor positioning was described as bearish on crude but bullish on gasoline and neutral on diesel, with refining capacity and low inventories seen as the main bottlenecks. Other commentary argued that oil prices contained too much risk premium relative to Persian Gulf volumes, while technical analysis suggested prices could remain constructive and retest $100 if support held. Investor positioning was described as bearish on crude but bullish on gasoline and neutral on diesel, with refining capacity and low inventories seen as the main bottlenecks 18 . Other commentary argued that oil prices contained too much risk premium relative to Persian Gulf volumes 24 , while technical analysis suggested prices could remain constructive and retest $100 if support held 22 .
Broader energy and macro spillovers The sources linked high energy prices to bond-market, inflation, currency and growth concerns, including French business uncertainty and expectations that a war ending could lower crude prices. European gas was described as vulnerable to cooler weather and Middle East supply risks, while US natural gas was reported lower year-to-date than European gas. The sources linked high energy prices to bond-market, inflation, currency and growth concerns, including French business uncertainty and expectations that a war ending could lower crude prices 5 26 36 . European gas was described as vulnerable to cooler weather and Middle East supply risks, while US natural gas was reported lower year-to-date than European gas 15 32 .
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