Oil supply has partly normalised, but Hormuz risk, shipping costs and tight diesel markets kept the energy shock elevated.
WTI $94.79 +2.1% Brent $125.44 −0.1% Oct 6 closes of Oct 6–Oct 13
Coverage focused on the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruption, oil and diesel markets, and the effects on inflation and financial markets. Several sources said Gulf crude flows had recovered materially and that oil carried an excessive risk premium 29 34 , while others stressed attacks, freight costs, depleted inventories and persistently tight refined-product markets 8 13 19 37 . The Trump–Putin Russian diesel arrangement was widely portrayed as unlikely to deliver quick price relief and as politically or legally contentious 7 19 41 50 . India, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen and broader energy-security issues also received attention, while several followed topics—including the IEA, SPR as an event, diesel export ban, diesel crisis, and energy shock—had no retrieved items in this period 15 57 60 61 67 71 84 .
What happened
Volumes of crude flows out of the Persian Gulf have largely recovered to about 13 mb/d from 8 mb/d, prompting claims that a large risk premium is priced into Brent.29 34
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Observers warned oil-price relief is constrained by surging shipping and insurance costs, high crack spreads and depleted inventories keeping diesel and refined-product markets tight.3 13 37
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U.S. diesel futures rose despite President Trump’s deal to suspend sanctions on Russian diesel, with traders saying added Russian supply and tax relief are unlikely to meaningfully lower prices in the near term.7 19
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The Strait of Hormuz saw reported incidents and Iran reiterated threats, keeping geopolitical risk to shipping elevated.6 11 33
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“Brent should be around $90 versus $110 in March and April.”
Where they disagree Whether oil prices were excessively high or likely to remain elevated
Prices embed excess risk premium29 34
1 voice
PB Relief limited by market frictions3 8 13 37
3 voices
The desk How the desk is calling it
30 of 46 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 3 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart ✕ WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 12 Full · since Jul 15 WTI crude futures, 2026-09-12 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. WTI crude futures, 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. WTI crude futures, 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-13, with 46 desk voices' positions $80 $90 $100 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. WTI crude futures rose from $79.12 to $94.79 since Jul 15. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 30 bullish, 14 bearish, 2 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Brent ≥ $120.00 : Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○ Brent should be around $90 : Robin Brooks.
○ offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run : Charles Lemonides.
○ oil to reclaim $95 if 50 EMA support holds : Fiona Cincotta.
What settles next
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $94.79, −17.7% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $94.79, −26.1% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date 6-month check
Mike McGlone : “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00 No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.
The voices
Robin Brooks
Persian Gulf crude volumes are back to about 13 mb/d, so Brent should be nearer $90 not $110 because a huge and excessive risk premium is priced in.29 34
PB Peter Berezin
Despite some normalization of Gulf flows, high shipping costs, elevated crack spreads and depleted inventories mean there’s little scope for major oil-price relief this year.13
Rory Johnston
Apocalyptic freight rates are pressuring refining runs even as Brent prompt spreads sink while diesel prices explode higher.3 14
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Surging Middle East shipping and insurance costs have widened price gaps across crude grades and pushed global freight rates sharply higher.37
Walter Bloomberg
U.S. diesel futures jumped despite Trump’s Russian fuel deal and analysts say additional Russian supply and tax relief are unlikely to meaningfully lower fuel prices in the near term.7 19
9 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Amena Bakr, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Erik Townsend, Evan, Jack Farley, John Kemp, Joseph Wang, Nate Hagens, TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
More from the desk Hormuz disruption and the oil risk premium Robin Brooks argued that Persian Gulf crude flows had risen to about 13 mb/d and that Brent should be nearer $90 than $110, implying an excessive risk premium. He also made falling oil prices his base case for the rest of 2026. Against that, Bloomberg reported increased attacks on shipping, while Goldman-linked reporting described sharply higher freight and insurance costs and wider regional crude differentials. Robin Brooks argued that Persian Gulf crude flows had risen to about 13 mb/d and that Brent should be nearer $90 than $110, implying an excessive risk premium 29 . He also made falling oil prices his base case for the rest of 2026 34 . Against that, Bloomberg reported increased attacks on shipping, while Goldman-linked reporting described sharply higher freight and insurance costs and wider regional crude differentials 8 37 .
Diesel tightness and the limits of the Russian deal Reporting said the extra Russian supply was insufficient to materially reduce prices, while global diesel markets remained extremely tight. The deal was also described as politically contentious, including criticism from both parties and concern among European allies. Reporting said the extra Russian supply was insufficient to materially reduce prices, while global diesel markets remained extremely tight 7 19 . The deal was also described as politically contentious, including criticism from both parties and concern among European allies 7 41 50 .
Inflation, inventories and market transmission Peter Berezin said U.S. gasoline demand had not fallen much, leaving inventories steadily depleted, while high shipping costs and crack spreads supported diesel and gasoline prices. He viewed diesel as more important than gasoline for core inflation and said oil was only part of the explanation for higher bond yields, with AI investment demand the larger factor. Other market commentary linked oil above $105 with higher Treasury yields and pressure across markets. Peter Berezin said U.S. gasoline demand had not fallen much, leaving inventories steadily depleted, while high shipping costs and crack spreads supported diesel and gasoline prices 13 . He viewed diesel as more important than gasoline for core inflation and said oil was only part of the explanation for higher bond yields, with AI investment demand the larger factor 13 . Other market commentary linked oil above $105 with higher Treasury yields and pressure across markets 38 .
Geopolitical escalation and energy security Daniel Lacalle amplified a case for returning global energy policy to supply security, while Iran’s economic contraction and sanctions were presented as severe, though their effect on Tehran’s future stance was uncertain. Daniel Lacalle amplified a case for returning global energy policy to supply security 12 , while Iran’s economic contraction and sanctions were presented as severe, though their effect on Tehran’s future stance was uncertain 1 32 .
Supply, demand and regional shifts Saudi Arabia reported materially higher production, OPEC+ output increased, and OPEC raised its 2027 demand-growth forecast while cutting its 2026 estimate. Russia’s crude-production decline slowed as overseas shipments increased, although refiners remained under pressure. India was discussed through coal-fired generation, rupee weakness linked partly to U.S. tariffs and the Iran war, and its strategic and economic positioning between China, Russia and the United States. Saudi Arabia reported materially higher production, OPEC+ output increased, and OPEC raised its 2027 demand-growth forecast while cutting its 2026 estimate 30 31 . Russia’s crude-production decline slowed as overseas shipments increased, although refiners remained under pressure 27 . India was discussed through coal-fired generation, rupee weakness linked partly to U.S. tariffs and the Iran war, and its strategic and economic positioning between China, Russia and the United States 21 26 46 .
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