Hormuz attacks and the broader Iran conflict were portrayed as the central oil-market risk, but views diverged on whether flows were recovering and whether diplomacy could end the disruption.
WTI $91.66+1.0%Diesel $4.71+1.8%closes of Oct 6–Oct 9
The period was dominated by escalating attacks around Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of tanker incidents, disrupted flows and pressure on oil and refined-product markets 271021. Commentators linked renewed US-Iran tensions and the conflict’s persistence to higher crude, diesel, freight, insurance and bond yields, while some argued that diplomacy or a US withdrawal could eventually normalise traffic 142538. The Russia-US diesel arrangement also sharpened disagreement over whether Ukraine should stop attacking Russian refineries 121922.
+1621 voices
What happened
President Trump publicly demanded Ukraine immediately stop striking Russian oil refineries and called for new leadership in Kyiv.2223
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Moscow announced a diesel supply pledge to allow Russian diesel onto international markets following a Putin–Trump agreement.16
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Commentators argued Ukraine was unlikely to accept that Russia’s diesel pledge created an obligation to cease refinery attacks, noting Kyiv was not receptive to that logic.19
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Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and around Saudi Arabia intensified, with tankers struck, departures down and air-raid damage at Riyadh airport, pressuring oil, freight and insurance markets.27921
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“If you think the Houthis are capable of carrying this out on their own, think again. This is another proxy war.”
Whether Russia’s diesel arrangement should constrain Ukraine’s refinery attacks
Ukraine should stop attacks2223
Donald Trump
Ukraine unlikely to stop19
1 voice
The desk
How the desk is calling it
29 of 43 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 3 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart
bullish
bearish
range-bound
mixed
WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
WTI crude futures rose from $77.94 to $91.66 since Jul 13. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 29 bullish, 12 bearish, 1 range-bound, 1 mixed.
Their record ✓ 1✗ 0
✓Brent ≥ $120.00: Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○Diplomatic resolution in the Middle East before the midterms: Joseph Wang.
○December heating oil around $350: Mike McGlone.
○40,000 tonnes of refined zinc exports in September: Natalie Scott-Gray.
What settles next
3 NovWTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway: “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $91.66, −14.9% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 DecWTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz: “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $91.66, −23.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.
The voices
Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston said Ukraine was unlikely to accept that Moscow’s diesel pledge forced it to stop attacks and that Kyiv was not receptive to that argument.19
Amena Bakr
Amena Bakr reported that Hormuz attacks continue, signalling ongoing disruption to oil transit.2
TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
TankerTrackers.com showed regional departures are down and highlighted increased ship‑to‑ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.7
Walter Bloomberg
Walter Bloomberg reported an oil tanker exploded after striking a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz and covered Trump’s demand that Ukraine stop striking Russian refineries.2122
Javier Blas
Javier Blas noted Saudi authorities said at least 12 people were killed and hundreds injured in a Houthi strike on Riyadh’s airport.9
Bloomberg
Bloomberg reported Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban, allowing 500,000 tonnes to reach international markets after a Putin–Trump agreement.16
11 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Daniel Lacalle, Erik Townsend, Evan, Jack Farley, John Kemp, Nate Hagens
More from the desk
Hormuz security and oil flowsReports described continuing attacks in and around Hormuz, including a tanker explosion after an alleged mine strike and a sixteenth attack across Hormuz and the broader Gulf in 11 days. TankerTrackers.com said regional departures had fallen as ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman increased. Rory Johnston identified a bullish signal from attacks slowing and flows partially recovering, but also a bearish signal from the war’s heaviest attack pace while more than 10 MMbpd still crossed the strait.
Reports described continuing attacks in and around Hormuz, including a tanker explosion after an alleged mine strike and a sixteenth attack across Hormuz and the broader Gulf in 11 days 21021. TankerTrackers.com said regional departures had fallen as ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman increased 7. Rory Johnston identified a bullish signal from attacks slowing and flows partially recovering, but also a bearish signal from the war’s heaviest attack pace while more than 10 MMbpd still crossed the strait 8.
Oil, diesel and macro-market pressureDavid Lin said tanker attacks had reached their highest weekly rate of the Iran war and linked them to rising oil prices, while reported insurance and freight costs had risen sharply. Joseph Wang said crude had stabilised around $100 but refined products, particularly diesel, were the more important bottleneck because of constrained refining capacity and attacks on Russian refineries. Razan Hilal associated renewed US-Iran tensions with higher crude prices and Treasury yields, while StoneX technical analysis described a possible short-term bullish rebound within a broader corrective pattern.
David Lin said tanker attacks had reached their highest weekly rate of the Iran war and linked them to rising oil prices, while reported insurance and freight costs had risen sharply 14. Joseph Wang said crude had stabilised around $100 but refined products, particularly diesel, were the more important bottleneck because of constrained refining capacity and attacks on Russian refineries 25. Razan Hilal associated renewed US-Iran tensions with higher crude prices and Treasury yields, while StoneX technical analysis described a possible short-term bullish rebound within a broader corrective pattern 38.
US policy, Iran and prospects for de-escalationRichard D. Wolff argued that Iran could obtain weapons from Russia and China regardless of US pressure, and said Iran would reopen Hormuz if the US withdrew from the Gulf, potentially subject to fees. Joseph Wang instead expected a diplomatic outcome, arguing that mutual destruction of Middle Eastern oil infrastructure reduced the likelihood of renewed US bombing. The evidence therefore presents competing claims about both US leverage and the route back to normal traffic.
Richard D. Wolff argued that Iran could obtain weapons from Russia and China regardless of US pressure, and said Iran would reopen Hormuz if the US withdrew from the Gulf, potentially subject to fees 14. Joseph Wang instead expected a diplomatic outcome, arguing that mutual destruction of Middle Eastern oil infrastructure reduced the likelihood of renewed US bombing 25. The evidence therefore presents competing claims about both US leverage and the route back to normal traffic.
Russia diesel, Ukraine and energy diplomacyReports said Russia partially lifted its diesel-export ban after an agreement between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, while separate reporting described US-Russia discussions about investors in Nord Stream pipelines after the war. Donald Trump demanded that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries and suggested replacing Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Rory Johnston rejected the argument that Russia’s diesel pledge would force Kyiv to halt refinery attacks, saying Kyiv might not accept the connection to US energy security.
Reports said Russia partially lifted its diesel-export ban after an agreement between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, while separate reporting described US-Russia discussions about investors in Nord Stream pipelines after the war 1216. Donald Trump demanded that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries and suggested replacing Volodymyr Zelenskyy 2223. Rory Johnston rejected the argument that Russia’s diesel pledge would force Kyiv to halt refinery attacks, saying Kyiv might not accept the connection to US energy security 19.
Saudi Arabia and proxy conflictSaudi Arabia reported 12 deaths and more than 300 injuries in the Riyadh airport attack, which temporarily halted airport operations and was described as the kingdom’s deadliest attack since the Iran war began. Anas Alhajji argued that the Houthis were acting as proxies and characterised the conflict as a multi-dimensional, multi-layered set of wars.
Saudi Arabia reported 12 deaths and more than 300 injuries in the Riyadh airport attack, which temporarily halted airport operations and was described as the kingdom’s deadliest attack since the Iran war began 91520. Anas Alhajji argued that the Houthis were acting as proxies and characterised the conflict as a multi-dimensional, multi-layered set of wars 4.
+1621 voices