Hormuz and regional attacks were presented as sustaining a costly refined-product and shipping shock, even as some oil flows recovered.
WTI $95.09 +2.1% closes of Oct 14
The period focused on Middle East conflict risk, especially attacks affecting the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure and oil logistics, with sources linking those developments to elevated crude, diesel and refined-product prices. 14 15 27 32 44 Market commentary also examined the inflation and bond-yield consequences, while separate coverage tracked Saudi production recovery, Russian crude and diesel flows, India-US energy ties, and Russia-Ukraine disruption. 1 8 22 37 44 The followed topics ban on diesel exports, diesel ban, diesel export ban, energy shock, fuel prices, Brent crude, and several other listed topics received no attention in this evidence pool.
What happened
Iranian-linked attacks hit shipping and Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran HQ, raising risk to Strait of Hormuz flows and refining logistics.14 15 27 32
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Diesel and refined-product prices surged with diesel crack spreads spiking while U.S. diesel futures jumped despite a Trump-Putin diesel export deal.24 31 44
3 of 22
Market commentators tied higher bond yields and inflation to energy-price effects from the Iran war, while others emphasised an AI-driven CapEx boom as the main rates driver.1 44
2 of 22
Show 1 more Show fewer
Saudi crude production reported a sharp recovery after recent lows even as shipping risks and freight costs remained elevated.8 19 27
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“That's like a far, far bigger factor.”
RW
Robin Wigglesworth Oct 14 ▶ 18:46
Where they disagree What is driving higher bond yields and inflation
RW Iran war/energy drives yields1
1 voice
PB AI CapEx mainly lifting rates44
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
31 of 47 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 3 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart ✕ WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 13 Full · since Jul 16 WTI crude futures, 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. WTI crude futures, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. WTI crude futures, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-14, with 47 desk voices' positions $80 $90 $100 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. WTI crude futures rose from $78.28 to $95.09 since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 31 bullish, 14 bearish, 2 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Brent ≥ $120.00 : Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○ US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ Brent should be around $90 : Robin Brooks.
○ offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run : Charles Lemonides.
What settles next
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.09, −18.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.09, −26.4% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date 6-month check
Mike McGlone : “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00 No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.
The voices
RW Robin Wigglesworth
Higher energy costs from the Iran war mechanically feed inflation and thus are a far larger factor boosting bond yields than the AI bond boom.1
PB Peter Berezin
Shipping costs, blown-out crack spreads and Russian refinery disruptions mean little scope for major oil-price relief this year and AI CapEx is the main reason rates are up.44
Rory Johnston
There have been 24 UKMTO-confirmed attacks around Hormuz since Sept 30 and diesel crack spreads and freight rates are at apocalyptic levels.23 24 27
Walter Bloomberg
U.S. diesel futures jumped 4.5% despite Trump's agreement to suspend sanctions on Russian diesel exports and traders say the extra supply won’t meaningfully lower prices.31
Javier Blas
Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran administrative building was targeted in a missile attack causing a fire.14
Bloomberg
Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surged, potentially threatening the recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports.32
TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
Middle East crude exports by Gulf producers have varied month to month through 2026, with October at 17.273 mbd after earlier lows.19
11 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Erik Townsend, Evan, Jack Farley, John Kemp, Joseph Wang, Nate Hagens
More from the desk Diesel, refining and freight-market stress The evidence emphasised that refined products, rather than crude alone, were driving consumer and market stress: diesel prices and crack spreads surged while freight costs and tanker transfers rose. U.S. diesel futures rose despite the proposed Russian diesel arrangement, with traders arguing that the additional supply would not materially reduce prices. The evidence emphasised that refined products, rather than crude alone, were driving consumer and market stress: diesel prices and crack spreads surged while freight costs and tanker transfers rose. 23 24 44 U.S. diesel futures rose despite the proposed Russian diesel arrangement, with traders arguing that the additional supply would not materially reduce prices. 31
Oil flows, supply and disruption Saudi Arabia reported a sharp recovery in crude production, and combined Middle East exports in October were shown above September levels. Against that, Russia was shipping less crude amid Black Sea security concerns, Ukraine-related refinery disruption was cited as supporting diesel prices, and Guyana was expected to exceed 1 million barrels a day of exports when a new grade began shipping. Saudi Arabia reported a sharp recovery in crude production, and combined Middle East exports in October were shown above September levels. 8 19 Against that, Russia was shipping less crude amid Black Sea security concerns, Ukraine-related refinery disruption was cited as supporting diesel prices, and Guyana was expected to exceed 1 million barrels a day of exports when a new grade began shipping. 21 37 44
Inflation, bonds and the AI investment boom Robin Wigglesworth said energy inflation from the Iran war could force central banks to raise rates, calling it a much larger bond-market factor than the AI bond boom. Peter Berezin likewise treated oil as part of the explanation for higher yields but said the larger driver was AI capital spending crowding out other investment through higher interest rates. Robin Wigglesworth said energy inflation from the Iran war could force central banks to raise rates, calling it a much larger bond-market factor than the AI bond boom. 1 Peter Berezin likewise treated oil as part of the explanation for higher yields but said the larger driver was AI capital spending crowding out other investment through higher interest rates. 44
India, US and broader energy geopolitics India featured in coverage of New Delhi discussions on AI, trade and energy, its central bank's investor-confidence challenge, and planned US-India cooperation on energy and investment. Anas Alhajji framed current conflicts as contests over energy and AI dominance, with strategic chokepoints functioning as major instruments of power. India featured in coverage of New Delhi discussions on AI, trade and energy, its central bank's investor-confidence challenge, and planned US-India cooperation on energy and investment. 3 10 11 Anas Alhajji framed current conflicts as contests over energy and AI dominance, with strategic chokepoints functioning as major instruments of power. 2
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