Hotter inflation reopened the debate over further Fed hikes, even as rising Treasury yields made bonds increasingly competitive with equities.
CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts Sep WTI $95.17 +2.1% S&P 500 7,719 −1.1% Fed 4.00% Gold $4,127 −1.2% GDP 2.19% −0.45 pts Apr closes of Oct 14
The period’s rates discussion centred on hotter US inflation reviving expectations of an October Fed hike, with market-implied probabilities rising to 43% 13 and some observers warning that persistent inflation could require further hikes into December and 2027 3 . At the same time, several speakers argued that bonds were becoming more attractive as yields rose, while others emphasised that elevated yields and tightening financial conditions could weaken growth and risk assets 10 11 25 . The evidence also covered how rate expectations were affecting gold, equities, credit and sector rotation, but followed topics including Allison Schrager, the Bank for International Settlements, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, bonds, bond yields, diesel prices, HM Treasury, markets, rally, stocks and Trading Analytix received no attention in this pool 23 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 .
What happened
Hotter US inflation lifted market odds of an October Fed rate hike to about 43%.13
1 of 34
Rising Treasury yields made bonds look competitive with equities and prompted rotation into fixed income.11 22 25
3 of 34
Some market participants warned higher yields, wider spreads and weaker breadth signal tightening financial conditions and potential growth fears.1 27
2 of 34
“Market expectations for an October rate hike surge to 43%”
Where they disagree Whether higher yields are primarily an opportunity or a warning of economic stress
TH Opportunity: bonds attractive25
1 voice
CD Warning: tightening signs1
1 voice
MH Warning: high yields weaken growth10
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
45 of 62 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 29 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 11 Full · since Jul 16 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-16 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-13, with 62 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.16% to 4.79% since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 45 expect more hikes, 8 expect a pause or cuts, 9 expect a hold.
Their record
○ bond yields will rise significantly over the next two to three months : Alasdair Macleod.
○ monetary inflation running at 7%-8% per annum : Michael Howell.
○ AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months : Ben Inker.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,127 now, +2.1% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,719 now, +3.6% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ 28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 29 Oct GDP · Thu
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.17, −18.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 5 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner Joseph Wang
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.17, −26.4% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Peter Boockvar : “two Fed rate hikes this year” (Oct 9). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
The voices
TH Thomas Hayes
Higher Treasury yields are already driving a rotation toward bonds as investors can lock in attractive guaranteed yields versus uncertain equity earnings, prompting reallocations into treasuries and defensive sectors.25
CD Cameron Dawson
Wider spreads, deteriorating breadth and rising yields are signs financial conditions are tightening and could presage broader growth worries if the trend continues.1
MH Michael Howell
Sustained high yields and related pressures will weaken growth and set up the potential for a significant bond-market rally as investors reposition away from riskier assets.10
RW Robin Wigglesworth
Bonds are tradable loans and the big treasury market sets the global cost of money, so rising yields materially change capital allocation decisions.22
WR Wolf Richter
After years of low yields, treasuries are becoming mildly appealing again and I'm shifting into bonds as they offer returns that were previously unobtainable.11
17 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Amena Bakr, Anas Alhajji, Arnaud Bertrand, Blake Morrow, Brent Johnson, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, jeroen blokland, Josh Linville, Luke Gromen, Michael Every, Mohamed El-Erian, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ), Warren Pies
More from the desk Inflation and the Fed path Walter Bloomberg said persistent inflation could force additional hikes in December and potentially into 2027, while other measures suggested some underlying inflation breadth had eased or remained mixed. Walter Bloomberg said persistent inflation could force additional hikes in December and potentially into 2027 3 , while other measures suggested some underlying inflation breadth had eased or remained mixed 12 15 .
Bonds versus equities Thomas Hayes argued that a guaranteed Treasury yield was becoming a credible alternative to an unguaranteed equity earnings yield, encouraging pensions and other institutional investors to rotate toward bonds. Wolf Richter likewise said Treasuries had become moderately attractive after a long period of unattractive yields, though he preferred TIPS and remained away from corporate and AI-linked bonds. Thomas Hayes argued that a guaranteed Treasury yield was becoming a credible alternative to an unguaranteed equity earnings yield, encouraging pensions and other institutional investors to rotate toward bonds 25 . Wolf Richter likewise said Treasuries had become moderately attractive after a long period of unattractive yields, though he preferred TIPS and remained away from corporate and AI-linked bonds 11 .
Growth and financial-conditions risk Cameron Dawson said higher yields, weaker equities, volatility and wider credit spreads were tightening financial conditions, while widening lower-quality credit spreads could signal brewing growth fears. Jurrien Timmer said slight tightening was beginning to temper earnings-driven price momentum, comparing the setup with 2022 and 2018. Cameron Dawson said higher yields, weaker equities, volatility and wider credit spreads were tightening financial conditions, while widening lower-quality credit spreads could signal brewing growth fears 1 . Jurrien Timmer said slight tightening was beginning to temper earnings-driven price momentum, comparing the setup with 2022 and 2018 27 .
Rates, gold and monetary credibility Bloomberg reported that gold held a two-day decline after a Fed official signalled that one more hike might be needed this year but further tightening would not be necessary in 2027, which improved sentiment toward gold. Michael Howell instead argued that high rates, government deficits and debt refinancing pressures could ultimately support a bond rally, while describing monetary and fiscal risks across the US, Europe and Japan. Bloomberg reported that gold held a two-day decline after a Fed official signalled that one more hike might be needed this year but further tightening would not be necessary in 2027, which improved sentiment toward gold 23 . Michael Howell instead argued that high rates, government deficits and debt refinancing pressures could ultimately support a bond rally, while describing monetary and fiscal risks across the US, Europe and Japan 10 .
JB+2934 voices