Hot inflation lifted rate-hike expectations, but falling yields and disagreement over October versus later Fed action showed the policy path remained unsettled.
CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts Sep Fed 4.00% Dollar 121.60 +0.1% Oct 9 WTI $94.59 +0.8% Gold $4,179 +1.7% S&P 500 7,719 −1.1% closes of Oct 9–Oct 15
The dominant discussion was a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, with September CPI at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, which increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. 2 8 13 Views differed on timing: some saw October as a genuine coin toss or expected a hold, while others argued for a December hike and even a March 2027 hike. 2 10 16 Falling Treasury yields were attributed to haven demand and tech-sector weakness despite inflation, while commentators also debated whether AI demand and earnings could withstand higher financing costs. 6 9 41
What happened
September CPI came in hotter than expected (headline 3.7%, core 2.6%), lifting odds of further Fed tightening.2 8 13
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Market reaction included a steep equity sell-off, especially in tech/AI names, and a fall in 10-year Treasury yields as investors sought havens.8 9 21 30
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Commentators disagreed on timing of the next Fed hike, with views ranging from an October coin toss to a December move and further hikes into March 2027.2 10 16
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Opinions diverged on AI: some called the selloff a buying opportunity while others warned capital windows are closing or flagged sustainability risks to hyperscaler CapEx.5 12 41
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“Inflation's here to stay.”
SS
Shriya Samarth Oct 15 ▶ 0:00
Where they disagree Timing of the next Federal Reserve hike
SS October coin toss2
1 voice
Fed holds in October10
Chris Zaccarelli
The desk How the desk is calling it
45 of 65 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Calls settled lately: 1 right, 1 wrong. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 39 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 13 Full · since Jul 17 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Jesse Felder · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates cyclically and ultimately intervene with QE/yield-curve control rather than hold a Volcker-style hawkish line. Leonel Mattos · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to embark on a cycle of rate hikes to stabilize inflation faster. Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. Shriya Samarth · Oct 13 · mixed — Sees the October 28 Fed decision as a coin toss, with OIS pricing swinging between roughly 22% and 45% odds of a hike. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Jesse Felder · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates cyclically and ultimately intervene with QE/yield-curve control rather than hold a Volcker-style hawkish line. Leonel Mattos · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to embark on a cycle of rate hikes to stabilize inflation faster. Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. Shriya Samarth · Oct 13 · mixed — Sees the October 28 Fed decision as a coin toss, with OIS pricing swinging between roughly 22% and 45% odds of a hike. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-13, with 65 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Jesse Felder · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates cyclically and ultimately intervene with QE/yield-curve control rather than hold a Volcker-style hawkish line. Leonel Mattos · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to embark on a cycle of rate hikes to stabilize inflation faster. Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. Shriya Samarth · Oct 13 · mixed — Sees the October 28 Fed decision as a coin toss, with OIS pricing swinging between roughly 22% and 45% odds of a hike. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.18% to 4.79% since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 45 expect more hikes, 9 expect a pause or cuts, 10 expect a hold, 1 mixed.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 1
✗ CPI ≥ 4.00% by Oct 13 : Jeffrey Gundlach. Missed on Oct 14. CPI 3.72% on Sep 1.
✓ Dollar ≥ 104.00 : Todd Horwitz. Called it on Oct 8. Dollar 121.45 on Oct 8.
○ bond yields will rise significantly over the next two to three months : Alasdair Macleod.
○ monetary inflation running at 7%-8% per annum : Michael Howell.
○ AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months : Ben Inker.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,179 now, +0.8% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline James Stanley: “4100 test in the short term” COMEX gold futures with James Stanley's target ≤ $4,100 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≤ $4,100 James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. They said Sep 25: Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Distance $4,179 now, −1.9% to go. source ↗ 28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 29 Oct GDP · Thu
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $94.59, −17.5% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 5 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner Joseph Wang
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec S&P 500 · Thu
Gareth Soloway : “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” (Oct 6). S&P 500 is at 7,719, +3.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (S&P 500).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $94.59, −26.0% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
The voices
SS Shriya Samarth
Hot September CPI (3.7% headline, 2.6% core) made the October Fed outcome a coin toss as meeting day approached.2
JF Jesse Felder
IPO withdrawals, credit stress and signs of financing strain suggest the capital window is closing and could weaken AI-driven investment demand.5
CD Cameron Dawson
AI demand looks strong for now, but the sustainability of projected hyperscaler CapEx growth is the key risk to the bull market.41
Mohamed El-Erian
Falling US government bond yields likely reflect flight-to-quality from hit tech stocks and concerns about tech's role in growth.6
FC Fiona Cincotta
Treasury yields have come lower partly due to tech-sector sell-off and safe-haven flows, which has helped silver bounce from its lows.9
open: S&P 500 ≥ 8,000; WTI ≤ $82.50 MM Michael McCrae
The hot CPI boosted expectations that the Fed will implement another rate hike before year-end and triggered the steepest sell-off since July.8
17 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Amena Bakr, Anas Alhajji, Anna Wong, Arnaud Bertrand, Dan Nathan, Dario Perkins, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Geiger Capital, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Luke Gromen, Max Wiethe, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Warren Pies
More from the desk Inflation and the Fed path Shriya Samarth said the hot CPI showed sticky inflation and put the October 28 meeting back into coin-toss territory, with rate-hike odds rising from about 22% to 45% before falling toward 30%. Chris Zaccarelli expected an October hold but a 25-basis-point December hike, partly because of the meeting’s proximity to the US midterm elections. UBS was reported to expect hikes in September and December 2026 and March 2027, while markets were pricing nearly five hikes. Shriya Samarth said the hot CPI showed sticky inflation and put the October 28 meeting back into coin-toss territory, with rate-hike odds rising from about 22% to 45% before falling toward 30%. 2 Chris Zaccarelli expected an October hold but a 25-basis-point December hike, partly because of the meeting’s proximity to the US midterm elections. 10 UBS was reported to expect hikes in September and December 2026 and March 2027, while markets were pricing nearly five hikes. 16
Why yields fell despite hot data Mohamed El-Erian attributed falling US government-bond yields to a flight to quality from pressured technology stocks and concerns about technology’s contribution to US growth. Fiona Cincotta similarly linked lower Treasury yields to tech selling, safe-haven rotation and oil-price declines. US Treasuries were also reported to have rallied across the curve as the global equity selloff increased demand for haven assets. Mohamed El-Erian attributed falling US government-bond yields to a flight to quality from pressured technology stocks and concerns about technology’s contribution to US growth. 6 Fiona Cincotta similarly linked lower Treasury yields to tech selling, safe-haven rotation and oil-price declines. 9 US Treasuries were also reported to have rallied across the curve as the global equity selloff increased demand for haven assets. 30
AI, credit and market vulnerability Cameron Dawson said the market was increasingly signalling risk to semiconductor-margin and AI-infrastructure assumptions, with weakness in lower-quality credit potentially indicating emerging growth concerns. Jesse Felder argued that cancelled or delayed AI-related IPOs and credit-market stress showed the capital window was closing, and warned that a future recession could produce further central-bank intervention even with inflation above target. Cameron Dawson said the market was increasingly signalling risk to semiconductor-margin and AI-infrastructure assumptions, with weakness in lower-quality credit potentially indicating emerging growth concerns. 41 Jesse Felder argued that cancelled or delayed AI-related IPOs and credit-market stress showed the capital window was closing, and warned that a future recession could produce further central-bank intervention even with inflation above target. 5
Inflation’s energy and supply dimension Several accounts stressed that energy was driving much of the inflation shock: Samarth highlighted gasoline and energy-linked airline costs, while Dawson said supply inflation could spread into other parts of the economy. Steve Hanke argued that low oil inventories and tight diesel supply could prolong inflationary pressure. Several accounts stressed that energy was driving much of the inflation shock: Samarth highlighted gasoline and energy-linked airline costs, while Dawson said supply inflation could spread into other parts of the economy. 2 41 Steve Hanke argued that low oil inventories and tight diesel supply could prolong inflationary pressure. 32
+2328 voices