Higher yields and inflation expectations dominated, with disagreement over whether rates still have materially further to rise or whether bonds are becoming a value opportunity.
Fed 4.00% CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Gold $4,220 +1.5% Bitcoin $82,364 +0.8% WTI $91.66 +1.0% Dollar 121.38 −0.3% Oct 2 closes of Oct 2–Oct 9
The period focused on higher yields, inflation risks and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, with CPI data and Kevin Warsh’s comments identified as key market catalysts 6 10 14 . Several speakers argued that elevated borrowing costs and concentrated equity leadership risk weakening property, credit and broader asset markets 9 17 , while others saw bonds becoming more attractive after the selloff 17 . Gold, the dollar and Treasury markets were discussed as linked gauges of changing rate expectations, but the evidence contains competing views on whether inflation and rates will continue rising or whether bonds and gold are near turning points 9 32 44 . The followed topics Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, central banks, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, HM Treasury, U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Treasury, debt, equities, markets, mining, private equity, rally, rate hike and yield received no attention in the supplied items.
What happened
Bond traders focused on upcoming CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance as catalysts for interest-rate expectations.6 14
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Peter Schiff argued inflation is rising faster than rates, that nominal rates will go much higher and that this is bullish for gold and damaging for real estate.9
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Thoughtful Money participants said some investors are beginning to nibble at long-duration bonds around 5.3%–5.6% yields while many remain concerned high rates will hurt the economy and that the 10‑year could still rise another ~50bp toward 5%–6%.17
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Robin Brooks said gold’s rally last year was driven by Fed cuts, gold is flat this year, and the Fed will likely hike less than markets expect with cuts only in 2027.15 32
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“I actually think inflation is rising faster than rates.”
Where they disagree How far interest rates and inflation will move
PS Rates and inflation to rise9
1 voice
Fed hikes fewer than priced32
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
46 of 62 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 27 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 5 Full · since Jul 13 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-08, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. Robin Brooks · Sep 11 · up — Brooks expects the Fed to hike next week, saying the CPI number boxes it in. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 8 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 8 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 8 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Joseph Wang · Oct 8 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Peter Boockvar · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Robin Brooks · Oct 8 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-10 to 2026-10-08, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. Robin Brooks · Sep 11 · up — Brooks expects the Fed to hike next week, saying the CPI number boxes it in. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 8 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 8 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 8 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Joseph Wang · Oct 8 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Peter Boockvar · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Robin Brooks · Oct 8 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-13 to 2026-10-08, with 62 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. Robin Brooks · Sep 11 · up — Brooks expects the Fed to hike next week, saying the CPI number boxes it in. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 8 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 8 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 8 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Joseph Wang · Oct 8 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Peter Boockvar · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Robin Brooks · Oct 8 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.26% to 4.75% since Jul 13. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 46 expect more hikes, 8 expect a pause or cuts, 8 expect a hold.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Bitcoin ≥ $85,000 : James Stanley. Called it on Oct 2. Bitcoin $85,489 on Oct 2.
○ Diplomatic resolution in the Middle East before the midterms : Joseph Wang.
○ AI companies to generate ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ December heating oil around $350 : Mike McGlone.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,220 now, already there by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,812 now, +2.4% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Wed
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 29 Oct GDP · Thu
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $91.66, −14.9% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Paul Cronin : “no Fed rate hike this year” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 5 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner Joseph Wang
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $91.66, −23.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
The voices
Bloomberg
Bond traders are watching CPI and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance for clues on how quickly the central bank will keep raising rates.6 14
PS Peter Schiff
Inflation is rising faster than interest rates, nominal rates are not at their peak, and further large rate increases will harm real estate and the economy while supporting gold.9
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Some investors have started to nibble at long-duration bonds with 10‑year yields near 5.3%–5.6% but many remain worried high rates will cause broader market and economic damage and positioning has been shortened since the 10‑year could still rise another ~50bp.17
Robin Brooks
Gold’s big rally was driven by Fed cuts; gold is flat this year and the Fed will likely hike less than markets currently price with cuts not expected until 2027.15 32
open: Fed on hold by Oct 31 DS David Scutt
Gold may find relief if the dollar turns lower and Treasury futures show signs of bottoming after the recent selloff.44
open: Gold ≥ $4,400 ST StoneX
Gold’s price move has been tied closely to the dollar and Treasury futures, and indicators suggest both may be at reversal extremes that could help gold recover.44
10 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Amena Bakr, Anna Wong, Arnaud Bertrand, Blake Morrow, Dan Nathan, Dario Perkins, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Gary Bohm, Geiger Capital, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Jeffrey Currie ++, jeroen blokland, Jurrien Timmer, Luke Gromen, Max Wiethe, Michael Every, Mohamed El-Erian, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ), Warren Pies
More from the desk Inflation, yields and Fed policy Bond traders were watching inflation data and Kevin Warsh for clues about the pace of further rate hikes. Fiona Cincotta described markets as pricing roughly a 20% chance of an October hike and about an 80% chance of another hike by year-end, while warning that hotter CPI could strengthen the dollar, pressure stocks and lift yields. Bloomberg also framed higher bond yields as doing some of the central banks’ tightening work themselves, potentially reducing the number of official hikes required. Bond traders were watching inflation data and Kevin Warsh for clues about the pace of further rate hikes 6 . Fiona Cincotta described markets as pricing roughly a 20% chance of an October hike and about an 80% chance of another hike by year-end, while warning that hotter CPI could strengthen the dollar, pressure stocks and lift yields 34 . Bloomberg also framed higher bond yields as doing some of the central banks’ tightening work themselves, potentially reducing the number of official hikes required 7 .
Higher rates, property and credit stress Peter Schiff argued that inflation is rising faster than interest rates, that nominal rates have further to rise and that this would create substantial problems for real estate and the wider US economy. The discussion also noted that lower-quality corporate bonds were demanding higher spreads over Treasuries, while the term premium had risen sharply. Peter Schiff argued that inflation is rising faster than interest rates, that nominal rates have further to rise and that this would create substantial problems for real estate and the wider US economy 9 . The discussion also noted that lower-quality corporate bonds were demanding higher spreads over Treasuries, while the term premium had risen sharply 17 .
Bonds as risk or opportunity The dominant concern in the bond discussion was that high rates could damage funds, refinancing and the economy, but some investors were beginning to buy long-duration bonds because yields had reached attractive levels. One participant said only a minority of contacts were starting to nibble at bonds, while another shortened fixed-income duration and still allowed that the 10-year yield could rise another 50 basis points toward 5% or nearly 6%. The dominant concern in the bond discussion was that high rates could damage funds, refinancing and the economy, but some investors were beginning to buy long-duration bonds because yields had reached attractive levels 17 . One participant said only a minority of contacts were starting to nibble at bonds, while another shortened fixed-income duration and still allowed that the 10-year yield could rise another 50 basis points toward 5% or nearly 6% 17 .
Gold, dollar and Treasury turning points Schiff viewed rising inflation relative to rates as bullish for gold, while Robin Brooks attributed gold’s prior rally to Fed cuts and said cuts were unlikely until 2027. David Scutt argued that an overextended dollar and deeply oversold Treasury futures could turn, helping gold after its selloff, whereas Park saw the dollar retaining a safe-haven role and potentially improving if financial excesses were cleared. Schiff viewed rising inflation relative to rates as bullish for gold 9 , while Robin Brooks attributed gold’s prior rally to Fed cuts and said cuts were unlikely until 2027 15 32 . David Scutt argued that an overextended dollar and deeply oversold Treasury futures could turn, helping gold after its selloff 44 , whereas Park saw the dollar retaining a safe-haven role and potentially improving if financial excesses were cleared 17 .
Market concentration and rate sensitivity The sources highlighted a sharp divide between record-level headline indexes and weak breadth: AI stocks were described as driving much of the S&P 500’s returns and earnings growth, while many sectors and stocks were in drawdowns. Cincotta said high yields could weigh on bank investment-banking revenue and noted that the bank index was below recent highs despite elevated earnings expectations. The sources highlighted a sharp divide between record-level headline indexes and weak breadth: AI stocks were described as driving much of the S&P 500’s returns and earnings growth 5 , while many sectors and stocks were in drawdowns 2 17 . Cincotta said high yields could weigh on bank investment-banking revenue and noted that the bank index was below recent highs despite elevated earnings expectations 34 .
+1520 voices