The central rates debate was whether higher yields reflect durable growth and AI investment or an inflationary, debt-fuelled shock that ultimately supports bonds.
WTI $95.09 +2.1% CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts Sep S&P 500 7,714 −1.2% Dollar 121.60 +0.1% GDP 2.19% −0.45 pts Apr EUR/USD 1.1153 −0.4% 52w low closes of Oct 9–Oct 14
The period focused on the interaction between rates, inflation, energy shocks and AI investment. John Williams was described as favouring one further 2026 hike but no 2027 increases, while market pricing implied a more hawkish path 22 . Speakers disagreed mainly over whether rising Treasury yields were driven chiefly by AI capital demand, oil and inflation, or economic growth; they also differed on how durable the AI investment boom and its earnings are 6 32 . Several followed topics, including the Bank of England, central banks, the Federal Open Market Committee, tariffs and Treasury yields, received no attention in the supplied evidence.
What happened
New York Fed’s John Williams said one more rate hike may be appropriate in 2026 and he currently sees no need for further increases in 2027, which eased long-term yields.21 22
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Thomas Hayes argued yields are rising from a mix of nominal growth, AI-driven capital demand and oil-related inflation expectations and that a resolution in Iran could materially lower the 10-year yield.6
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Peter Berezin said oil helps explain higher yields but the dominant cause is an AI CapEx boom that crowds out other spending and keeps rates elevated, and he expects the boom to last another 12–24 months.32
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Robin Wigglesworth emphasised that bond yields can rise for both good reasons (strong growth) and bad reasons (inflation, threats to central-bank independence or solvency), and warned of risks from tech sector leverage.1
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“oil is part of the story. Now, is it most of the story? No, I don't think so.”
Where they disagree Primary cause of elevated bond yields
TH Yields from growth, AI, oil6
1 voice
PB Yields mostly AI CapEx crowding32
1 voice
RW Multiple competing drivers1
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
44 of 60 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 28 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 9 Full · since Jul 16 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Brent Johnson · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. Cameron Dawson · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. John Feneck · Oct 9 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Joseph Wang · Oct 9 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Robin Brooks · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-16 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Brent Johnson · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. Cameron Dawson · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. John Feneck · Oct 9 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Joseph Wang · Oct 9 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Robin Brooks · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-09, with 60 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Brent Johnson · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. Cameron Dawson · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. John Feneck · Oct 9 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Joseph Wang · Oct 9 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Robin Brooks · Oct 9 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.16% to 4.80% since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 44 expect more hikes, 7 expect a pause or cuts, 9 expect a hold.
Their record
○ France's budget gap to widen to -5.2% of GDP : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ Germany's deficit to widen to -4.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,118 now, +2.3% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,714 now, +3.7% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ 28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 29 Oct GDP · Thu
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.09, −18.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 5 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner Joseph Wang
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.09, −26.4% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Peter Boockvar : “two Fed rate hikes this year” (Oct 9). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
The voices
TH Thomas Hayes
Yields reflect a combination of US nominal growth, AI-driven capital demand and oil-influenced inflation expectations, and an end to the Iran conflict could push the 10-year substantially lower.6
PB Peter Berezin
Oil contributes to higher yields but the main driver is the AI CapEx boom crowding out spending; I see the boom lasting another 12–24 months and 5.5% would make me bullish on bonds.32
RW Robin Wigglesworth
Bond yields can rise for favourable reasons like booming growth or adverse reasons such as inflation, threats to central-bank independence or solvency, and tech’s increasing debt use could prove destructive.1
11 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Taggart, Amena Bakr, Anas Alhajji, Anna Wong, Arnaud Bertrand, Blake Morrow, Brent Johnson, Dan Nathan, Dario Perkins, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Gary Bohm, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, jeroen blokland, Max Wiethe, Michael Every, Mohamed El-Erian, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ), Warren Pies
More from the desk Fed outlook and rate expectations John Williams indicated that one more rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate, while seeing no need for further increases in 2027 and expecting inflation to move closer to target as tariff and energy effects fade. That outlook was characterised as less hawkish than market pricing, which anticipated a December hike and two further 2027 hikes. John Williams indicated that one more rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate, while seeing no need for further increases in 2027 and expecting inflation to move closer to target as tariff and energy effects fade 22 . That outlook was characterised as less hawkish than market pricing, which anticipated a December hike and two further 2027 hikes 22 .
Why yields are high Thomas Hayes attributed higher yields to a combination of growth, oil-driven inflation expectations and demand for capital, while distinguishing US growth from weaker European conditions. Peter Berezin said oil and diesel matter for inflation, but argued that the larger force is AI capital expenditure crowding out other spending through higher interest rates. Thomas Hayes attributed higher yields to a combination of growth, oil-driven inflation expectations and demand for capital, while distinguishing US growth from weaker European conditions 6 . Peter Berezin said oil and diesel matter for inflation, but argued that the larger force is AI capital expenditure crowding out other spending through higher interest rates 32 .
Bond appeal and downside risks Hayes said guaranteed Treasury income had become a credible alternative to equity earnings yields for pensions and other long-term investors, potentially driving a rotation into bonds. Berezin said a 5.5% ten-year yield would make him more bullish on bonds, while Harley Bassman warned that a 20-year yield above 6% could trigger substantial hedging-related selling. Hayes said guaranteed Treasury income had become a credible alternative to equity earnings yields for pensions and other long-term investors, potentially driving a rotation into bonds 6 . Berezin said a 5.5% ten-year yield would make him more bullish on bonds, while Harley Bassman warned that a 20-year yield above 6% could trigger substantial hedging-related selling 32 28 .
AI financing and sustainability Robin Wigglesworth said major technology companies had moved from abundant cash toward substantial bond financing for data centres, with roughly $500–$600 billion of direct bonds described as visible in the market. Hayes argued that AI bond issuance rests on income projections that may be implausibly large, whereas Berezin expected the capital-spending boom to continue for another 12–24 months but questioned whether current margins and compute pricing can last. Robin Wigglesworth said major technology companies had moved from abundant cash toward substantial bond financing for data centres, with roughly $500–$600 billion of direct bonds described as visible in the market 1 . Hayes argued that AI bond issuance rests on income projections that may be implausibly large, whereas Berezin expected the capital-spending boom to continue for another 12–24 months but questioned whether current margins and compute pricing can last 6 32 .
Transmission to currencies, consumers and markets French fiscal concerns were presented as a drag on the euro, alongside relatively hawkish Fed expectations and a crowded long-dollar position. Rising oil, inflation and borrowing costs were also linked to pressure on US discretionary consumers, while market concentration masked weaker breadth. French fiscal concerns were presented as a drag on the euro, alongside relatively hawkish Fed expectations and a crowded long-dollar position 26 . Rising oil, inflation and borrowing costs were also linked to pressure on US discretionary consumers, while market concentration masked weaker breadth 18 30 .
+1722 voices