O
oil
September 2026Live view →
Balanced
Commentary centered on geopolitics- and infrastructure-driven tightness versus demand damage and macro liquidity. Jeffrey Currie emphasized rotating bottlenecks, depleted inventories, and refining constraints as key drivers, with crack spreads signaling product scarcity and underinvestment increasing volatility 216. Others flagged positioning and technicals: Warren Pies highlighted extreme managed-money shorts and record crack spreads as a setup for a bounce, later noting a sharp $17 rally and large petrol inventory draws since the Iran war began 219. Countering bullish takes, Anas Alhajji argued the earlier shock already destroyed demand and that, absent new chokepoint closures, there’s no case for extreme bullishness; recent strength reflects risk premium and a bounce from oversold levels 10. Several voices tied oil’s path to macro: Luke Gromen and hosts discussed war-driven risk premia, range assumptions, and how higher oil pressures bonds and tech, while Kathryn Rooney Vera expected a drop if Hormuz reopens and advised profit-taking in energy stocks 4617114.
From the window to Aug 1, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
All voices 21 voices4 bearish17 bullish
Bearish
- DODoombergBearish Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. “you blow up all the refineries the price of crude goes negative” ▶ 26:43 DOOMBERG | All roads lead to the printer! · 27 Sept
- RJRory JohnstonBearish The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. “That doesn't work if global prices fall” Open the post I continue to stress that while a lot of oil is … · 25 Sept
- ABAmena BakrBearish The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. “Today’s oil price drop is a move by traders to de-risk, not an all-clear.” Open the post Today’s oil price drop is a move by traders to d… · 16 Sept
- DLDaniel LacalleBearish Oil prices are far from crisis levels and each geopolitical shock has a smaller effect, so prices are not heading to crisis highs. “Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels in real and nominal terms.” Open the post Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels … · 9 Sept
Bullish
- AAAnas AlhajjiBullish Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. “They’re also locking in coal, oil, and gas regardless of cost, and building strategic oil and gas storage” Open the post 🧭Interesting observation: US energy dominance… · 28 Sept
- JBJim BiancoBullish He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. “we're still at deficit and so that's one of the reasons why you're seeing elevated prices in oil” ▶ 12:03 How The Bond Market Can ‘Wreck’ Every Other Asse… · 28 Sept
- CVChris VermeulenBullish Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. “what's going on with the war and the higher oil pricing is definitely going to continue to put pressure on equities” ▶ 0:46 ‘Panic Selling’ Today: Yields To 8%, Gold To $3,… · 28 Sept
- FCFiona CincottaBullish Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. “this does keep the the outlook a little bit more constructive um buyers are going to want to take a rise above that 95 level” ▶ 4:56 Fed Hike Bets Lift Yields Yet Nasdaq Hits a Reco… · 26 Sept
- MEMichael EveryBullish Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. “which just means that oil is that much more expensive from a security perspective” ▶ 4:30 MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Glo… · 25 Sept
- TOTed OakleyBullish Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. “i think oil has further to go but eventually that i think oil will tame the interest rates” ▶ 37:27 Ready For A Bear Market? Most Investors Aren't |… · 24 Sept
- RBRobin BrooksBullish Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. “As oil prices rise, a US export ban on diesel becomes more likely.” Open the post As oil prices rise, a US export ban on diesel be… · 24 Sept
- JSJosef SchachterBullish Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. “we're going to see record all well record all-time highs for the price of oil because we're not producing enough” ▶ 12:31 Global Gas Shortage: This Is When Oil Price Doub… · 23 Sept
- LGLuke GromenBullish If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Open the item Medium-to-long term thoughts on LT USTs, etc. · 14 Sept
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterBullish Oil prices have nearly doubled since the Iran War began and $100+ oil is a problem for the world. “oil prices have nearly doubled since the Iran War began” Open the post In all fairness, US Treasury Secretary Bessent w… · 9 Sept
Strongly bullish
- BSBill SmeadStrongly bullish Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. “we very possibly will never again see 55 to 60 dollar oil” ▶ 34:11 ‘Almost 0%’ Chance Stocks Are Higher In 10 Years… · 27 Sept
- JSJeff SniderStrongly bullish Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. ▶ 17:38 Rare Recession Indicator Is ‘Screaming’—No One’s… · 26 Sept
- PSPeter SchiffStrongly bullish Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. “Look, prices are going much, much higher.” ▶ 21:43 PETER SCHIFF | The Federal Reserve is going to h… · 25 Sept
- KMKeith McCulloughStrongly bullish He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. ▶ 11:35 2027 Market Bloodbath: Worse Than 2022's Bear Ma… · 24 Sept
- PCPatrick CeresnaStrongly bullish Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. “So this week, I wanted to position for renewed crude oil strength, but with a defined premium budget.” ▶ 46:19 MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Glo… · 24 Sept
- FJFelix JauvinStrongly bullish Oil is hitting $100, which will add further inflation. “oil is hitting 100 bucks here so there's going to be even further inflation on that side of things” ▶ 11:49 The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Rou… · 11 Sept
- QTQuinn ThompsonStrongly bullish Suppressed prices post-war brought on the return to highs; oil at $120 would be a crisis. “when they suppressed prices for many months post-war, that's why we're back to highs” ▶ 8:29 The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Rou… · 11 Sept
Inflation, rates and market positioning 6 voices1 bearish5 bullish
Bearish
- ABAmena BakrBearish The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. “Today’s oil price drop is a move by traders to de-risk, not an all-clear.” Open the post Today’s oil price drop is a move by traders to d… · 16 Sept
Bullish
- FCFiona CincottaBullish Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. “this does keep the the outlook a little bit more constructive um buyers are going to want to take a rise above that 95 level” ▶ 4:56 Fed Hike Bets Lift Yields Yet Nasdaq Hits a Reco… · 26 Sept
- TOTed OakleyBullish Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. “i think oil has further to go but eventually that i think oil will tame the interest rates” ▶ 37:27 Ready For A Bear Market? Most Investors Aren't |… · 24 Sept
Strongly bullish
- JSJeff SniderStrongly bullish Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. ▶ 17:38 Rare Recession Indicator Is ‘Screaming’—No One’s… · 26 Sept
- KMKeith McCulloughStrongly bullish He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. ▶ 11:35 2027 Market Bloodbath: Worse Than 2022's Bear Ma… · 24 Sept
- FJFelix JauvinStrongly bullish Oil is hitting $100, which will add further inflation. “oil is hitting 100 bucks here so there's going to be even further inflation on that side of things” ▶ 11:49 The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Rou… · 11 Sept
Middle East conflict and Hormuz 6 voices2 bearish4 bullish
Bearish
- RJRory JohnstonBearish The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. “That doesn't work if global prices fall” Open the post I continue to stress that while a lot of oil is … · 25 Sept
- DLDaniel LacalleBearish Oil prices are far from crisis levels and each geopolitical shock has a smaller effect, so prices are not heading to crisis highs. “Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels in real and nominal terms.” Open the post Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels … · 9 Sept
Bullish
- JBJim BiancoBullish He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. “we're still at deficit and so that's one of the reasons why you're seeing elevated prices in oil” ▶ 12:03 How The Bond Market Can ‘Wreck’ Every Other Asse… · 28 Sept
- CVChris VermeulenBullish Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. “what's going on with the war and the higher oil pricing is definitely going to continue to put pressure on equities” ▶ 0:46 ‘Panic Selling’ Today: Yields To 8%, Gold To $3,… · 28 Sept
- MEMichael EveryBullish Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. “which just means that oil is that much more expensive from a security perspective” ▶ 4:30 MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Glo… · 25 Sept
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterBullish Oil prices have nearly doubled since the Iran War began and $100+ oil is a problem for the world. “oil prices have nearly doubled since the Iran War began” Open the post In all fairness, US Treasury Secretary Bessent w… · 9 Sept
Supply, inventories and spare capacity 4 voices1 bearish3 bullish
Bearish
- DODoombergBearish Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. “you blow up all the refineries the price of crude goes negative” ▶ 26:43 DOOMBERG | All roads lead to the printer! · 27 Sept
Bullish
- JSJosef SchachterBullish Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. “we're going to see record all well record all-time highs for the price of oil because we're not producing enough” ▶ 12:31 Global Gas Shortage: This Is When Oil Price Doub… · 23 Sept
Strongly bullish
- PSPeter SchiffStrongly bullish Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. “Look, prices are going much, much higher.” ▶ 21:43 PETER SCHIFF | The Federal Reserve is going to h… · 25 Sept
- PCPatrick CeresnaStrongly bullish Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. “So this week, I wanted to position for renewed crude oil strength, but with a defined premium budget.” ▶ 46:19 MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Glo… · 24 Sept
Demand and the economy 2 voices2 bullish
Bullish
- AAAnas AlhajjiBullish Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. “They’re also locking in coal, oil, and gas regardless of cost, and building strategic oil and gas storage” Open the post 🧭Interesting observation: US energy dominance… · 28 Sept
- LGLuke GromenBullish If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Open the item Medium-to-long term thoughts on LT USTs, etc. · 14 Sept
4 bearish17 bullish
Also asked
Risk 3 voices← rising · easing →2 rising1 easing
Risk rising sharply
- DLDaniel LacalleRisk rising sharply The oil routes these economies depend on are threatened by disruption in Hormuz and the Red Sea. “threatens the oil routes on which these economies depend most” Open the post The Iran regime and its proxies are inflicting t… · 20 Sept
Risk rising
- RJRory JohnstonRisk rising Weak Chinese crude demand is one of the oil market's main ongoing downside vulnerabilities. Open the post Aside from overstretched spec positioning and ri… · 17 Sept
Risk easing
- RBRobin BrooksRisk easing If Iran attacks Western oil infrastructure, the West has workarounds, so the disruption risk is limited. “If it attacks Western oil infrastructure, the West has workarounds.” Open the post Iran is at an asymmetric disadvantage. If it att… · 15 Sept
Mentions
899 in September 2026Mon 31Sun 13 · 54Thu 1
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Anas Alhajji 157 mentions
- Bloomberg 134 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 82 mentions
- Robin Brooks 79 mentions
- The Kobeissi Letter 55 mentions
- Rory Johnston 53 mentions
- Javier Blas 44 mentions
- TankerTrackers.com, Inc. 27 mentions
See what your own voices say about oil, every morning.
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