The central dispute was whether resilient but impaired oil flows implied a manageable shock or an unfolding diesel and energy crisis.
WTI $94.59 +0.8% Diesel $4.71 +1.8% Oct 6 closes of Oct 6–Oct 15
The period’s main discussion centred on disrupted Middle East oil flows, Strait of Hormuz security, diesel tightness and whether elevated prices represented a genuine supply crisis. Javier Blas judged flows resilient but reduced to roughly 70–75% of pre-war levels, while warning that prolonged disruption could push markets toward deficits and trade restrictions 28 29 31 . Others were less alarmed: Daniel Lacalle argued oil prices were far from crisis levels, whereas Steve Hanke said inventories were abnormally low and physical prices materially exceeded quoted prices 9 17 . The followed topics Ukraine, Russia, Iran, oil and diesel received attention, but several followed topics—including the American Petroleum Institute, WTI, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and nuclear—had no items in this selected pool 17 22 30 .
What happened
Middle East crude flows have held roughly 70–75% of pre‑war levels ex‑Iran with lumpier shipments and some recent sinkings near the Strait of Hormuz.12 28
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Javier Blas and others warned the shock is meaningful but he doubts extreme $150–$200 oil and noted economic damage has been less than feared so far.28 29 31
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Steve H. Hanke said inventories are abnormally low and physical prices are materially above quoted prices, and highlighted severe diesel price rises and market stress.17
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Daniel Lacalle argued oil prices remain far from crisis levels and the US now acts as a shock absorber with more resilient supply chains.9
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“Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels in real and nominal terms.”
Where they disagree Whether current oil conditions amount to a serious energy crisis
Not a crisis9
1 voice
SH Inventories & diesel worry17
1 voice
AM Severe refined-product stress27
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
32 of 49 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 4 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart ✕ WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 14 Full · since Jul 17 WTI crude futures, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Oct 15 Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. Steve H. Hanke · Oct 14 · up — Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. WTI crude futures, 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions $87.50 $90 $92.50 $95 Oct 1 Oct 15 Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. Steve H. Hanke · Oct 14 · up — Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. WTI crude futures, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-15, with 49 desk voices' positions $80 $90 $100 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. Steve H. Hanke · Oct 14 · up — Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. WTI crude futures rose from $81.78 to $94.59 since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 32 bullish, 15 bearish, 2 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Brent ≥ $120.00 : Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○ US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ Brent should be around $90 : Robin Brooks.
○ offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run : Charles Lemonides.
What settles next
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $94.59, −17.5% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $94.59, −26.0% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date 6-month check
Mike McGlone : “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00 Fiona Cincotta : “break below $89 opens the door to the 200 EMA around $82.50” (Sep 30) · WTI ≤ $82.50 No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.
The voices
Daniel Lacalle
Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels, the US is now a shock absorber, and supply chains are stronger and more diversified.9
SH Steve H. Hanke
Inventories are abnormally low, physical oil prices run about 35–40% above quoted prices, and diesel prices and market stress are cause for serious concern.17
AM Alasdair Macleod
Real refined‑product economics show severe stress, government messaging understates the shortfall, and prolonged disruption could trigger market collapse.27
Javier Blas
Middle East oil flows ex‑Iran remain resilient at about 70–75% of pre‑war levels, the shock is significant though I doubt $150–$200 oil and the market may tilt into a deficit before potential later oversupply.28 29 31
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
I noted the pullback in oil prices overnight and flagged that Middle East Gulf crude and product exports have fallen from recent highs amid attacks near Hormuz.1 6
9 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Amena Bakr, Ben Carlson, Erik Townsend, Evan, Jack Farley, John Kemp, Joseph Wang, Michael Every, Nate Hagens, TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
More from the desk Hormuz disruption and oil flows Blas said Middle Eastern crude flows excluding Iran remained resilient but had fallen to about 70–75% of pre-war levels, with crossings becoming more irregular. He warned that continued Iranian attacks could shift from slowing vessels to targeting loading ports, pipelines or processing facilities. Reports also described tanker and vessel incidents near Hormuz, while Iran claimed control of the strait. Blas said Middle Eastern crude flows excluding Iran remained resilient but had fallen to about 70–75% of pre-war levels, with crossings becoming more irregular 28 29 31 . He warned that continued Iranian attacks could shift from slowing vessels to targeting loading ports, pipelines or processing facilities 29 31 . Reports also described tanker and vessel incidents near Hormuz, while Iran claimed control of the strait 5 12 14 .
Oil-price and crisis outlook Blas remained bearish relative to bullish forecasts and rejected a move toward $150–$200 oil, noting that the economic damage had so far been less dramatic than expected. Lacalle instead said prices were well short of crisis levels and portrayed diversified supply chains and higher US production as shock absorbers. Macleod took the opposite view, arguing that official messaging understated shortages and that the underlying refined-product premium signalled much greater stress. Blas remained bearish relative to bullish forecasts and rejected a move toward $150–$200 oil, noting that the economic damage had so far been less dramatic than expected 31 . Lacalle instead said prices were well short of crisis levels and portrayed diversified supply chains and higher US production as shock absorbers 9 . Macleod took the opposite view, arguing that official messaging understated shortages and that the underlying refined-product premium signalled much greater stress 27 .
Diesel tightness and policy risk Steve Hanke said diesel prices had risen sharply since the war and attributed pressure to low inventories, agricultural demand and trucking consumption. The IEA view relayed on the David Lin show was that the diesel squeeze could persist into 2027, while Russian diesel reaching global markets was described by the Kremlin as helpful but insufficient to stabilise markets fully. Blas warned that prolonged tightness could generate formal or informal diesel export restrictions, including in major trading countries. Steve Hanke said diesel prices had risen sharply since the war and attributed pressure to low inventories, agricultural demand and trucking consumption 17 . The IEA view relayed on the David Lin show was that the diesel squeeze could persist into 2027, while Russian diesel reaching global markets was described by the Kremlin as helpful but insufficient to stabilise markets fully 13 17 . Blas warned that prolonged tightness could generate formal or informal diesel export restrictions, including in major trading countries 29 31 .
Demand, substitution and longer-run supply Blas expected high retail fuel prices, improving electric-vehicle options and charging infrastructure to weaken future oil-demand growth. He also argued that if Middle Eastern supply normalised, Iranian barrels returned and high prices stimulated investment, the market could eventually face abundant oil rather than sustained scarcity. Blas expected high retail fuel prices, improving electric-vehicle options and charging infrastructure to weaken future oil-demand growth 29 31 . He also argued that if Middle Eastern supply normalised, Iranian barrels returned and high prices stimulated investment, the market could eventually face abundant oil rather than sustained scarcity 29 31 .
Broader geopolitical and macro spillovers Higher oil prices were also associated with stronger inflation and market pressure, including falling equities and rising Treasury yields. Higher oil prices were also associated with stronger inflation and market pressure, including falling equities and rising Treasury yields 17 19 26 32 .
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