The dominant claim was that oil and diesel markets remain physically tight despite emergency-stock releases and some recovery in Gulf flows.
Diesel $5.07 −0.9% WTI $97.55 +4.0% Nat gas $3.21 −19.1% closes of Oct 14–Oct 15
Discussion centred on a physically tight oil and diesel market amid disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, Russian refining, the Red Sea and other transport chokepoints. 4 6 The IEA was reported to be accelerating emergency releases, including diesel, but sources differed on whether this would materially resolve the shortage. 3 8 15 19 20 Views also diverged on price signals: some argued benchmark Brent and front-month WTI understate physical stress, while others pointed to recovering Gulf exports and falling oil prices. 6 9 29 38 41 Geopolitical coverage included tanker and shipping incidents near Hormuz, continued Iran-related escalation, the Yemen-Saudi conflict, Ukraine, and pressure on US alliances in Asia. 23 32 35 37 1
What happened
The IEA agreed to accelerate emergency releases including over 20 million barrels of diesel as part of completing previously announced releases amid warnings diesel supply remains tight.3 15 20
3 of 29
Multiple voices warned markets are physically tight with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Russian refining strikes and bottlenecks pushing diesel and gasoline to high levels despite Brent’s muted signal.4 6 23 34 41
3 of 29
Data and commentary indicated Gulf crude exports have largely recovered toward pre-war levels even as questions remain why spot oil prices stay elevated.19 41
2 of 29
“the overall story in diesel is still the same. It is still a shortage globally.”
Where they disagree Whether current oil prices reflect the physical market
Brent disconnected from physical6
Jeffrey Currie
Prices far from crisis29
1 voice
SH Physical spot > quoted41
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
32 of 49 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 4 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart ✕ WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 14 Full · since Jul 17 WTI crude futures, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Oct 15 Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. Steve H. Hanke · Oct 14 · up — Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. WTI crude futures, 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 Oct 1 Oct 15 Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. Steve H. Hanke · Oct 14 · up — Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. WTI crude futures, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-15, with 49 desk voices' positions $80 $90 $100 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices. Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60. Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets. Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends. Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. Steve H. Hanke · Oct 14 · up — Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. WTI crude futures rose from $81.78 to $97.55 since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 32 bullish, 15 bearish, 2 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Brent ≥ $120.00 : Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○ US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ Brent should be around $90 : Robin Brooks.
○ offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run : Charles Lemonides.
What settles next
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $97.55, −20.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $97.55, −28.2% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date 6-month check
Mike McGlone : “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00 Fiona Cincotta : “break below $89 opens the door to the 200 EMA around $82.50” (Sep 30) · WTI ≤ $82.50 No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.
The voices
David Lin
Data show Gulf crude export volumes have recovered substantially toward pre-war levels, raising the puzzle of why crude remains above $100 a barrel.41
Daniel Lacalle
Oil prices are far from crisis levels because US production, lower energy intensity and more diversified supply chains have improved resilience.29
SH Steve H. Hanke
Physical oil prices are roughly 35–40% higher than quoted prices due to abnormally low inventories and strong spot demand—especially for diesel used by truckers and farmers.41
PC Patrick Ceresna
Despite front-month WTI consolidation, depleted inventories, escalating military operations, Hormuz transit risk and heavy short positioning make the front month vulnerable.9
AH Alex Hodes
Diesel faces a global shortage exacerbated by refinery turnarounds and seasonal agricultural demand, so releases provide only temporary relief.4
Walter Bloomberg
Reports show tanker attacks and vessels on fire near the Strait of Hormuz amid stepped-up regional strikes and Iran-related escalation affecting transit and exports.23 25 35
12 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Ben Carlson, Evan, Jack Farley, Joseph Wang, Michael Every, Nate Hagens, TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
More from the desk Diesel shortage and emergency releases Alex Hodes described the IEA release as temporary relief against refinery maintenance, seasonal agricultural demand and an underlying global diesel shortage. The IEA was reported as accelerating releases, with more than 20 million barrels of diesel potentially released promptly and roughly 100 million barrels of oil still outstanding from the March intervention. Steve Hanke cited an IEA view that the diesel squeeze could persist into 2027. Alex Hodes described the IEA release as temporary relief against refinery maintenance, seasonal agricultural demand and an underlying global diesel shortage. 4 The IEA was reported as accelerating releases, with more than 20 million barrels of diesel potentially released promptly and roughly 100 million barrels of oil still outstanding from the March intervention. 3 15 19 20 Steve Hanke cited an IEA view that the diesel squeeze could persist into 2027. 41
Physical tightness versus benchmark prices Jeffrey Currie argued that Brent has become disconnected from physical conditions, while diesel, gasoline and delivery costs reflect greater disruption. Patrick Ceresna said Brent and parts of the oil market were structurally strong, but WTI’s front month remained contained amid flattening backwardation, heavy short positioning and depleted inventories. Steve Hanke likewise claimed physical oil prices were materially above quoted prices because inventories were abnormally low. Jeffrey Currie argued that Brent has become disconnected from physical conditions, while diesel, gasoline and delivery costs reflect greater disruption. 6 Patrick Ceresna said Brent and parts of the oil market were structurally strong, but WTI’s front month remained contained amid flattening backwardation, heavy short positioning and depleted inventories. 9 Steve Hanke likewise claimed physical oil prices were materially above quoted prices because inventories were abnormally low. 41
Hormuz and wider geopolitical disruption Reports described tanker fires, attacks on or near vessels, and Iranian claims of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Other commentary cited disruption in the Black Sea, Russian refining infrastructure, the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, alongside possible escalation in the Yemen-Saudi conflict. Reports described tanker fires, attacks on or near vessels, and Iranian claims of control over the Strait of Hormuz. 23 25 35 Other commentary cited disruption in the Black Sea, Russian refining infrastructure, the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, alongside possible escalation in the Yemen-Saudi conflict. 6 32 37
Countervailing supply and demand signals Daniel Lacalle presented a more reassuring assessment, arguing that oil prices were far from crisis levels and that US production, lower energy intensity and more diversified supply chains had made the US a shock absorber. Other reports noted recovering Gulf exports, falling US gasoline consumption and Russian diesel returning to global markets, although the Kremlin-related report said this would not fully stabilise conditions. Daniel Lacalle presented a more reassuring assessment, arguing that oil prices were far from crisis levels and that US production, lower energy intensity and more diversified supply chains had made the US a shock absorber. 29 Other reports noted recovering Gulf exports, falling US gasoline consumption and Russian diesel returning to global markets, although the Kremlin-related report said this would not fully stabilise conditions. 33 34 41
Broader macro and energy-security themes Sources linked the energy shock to inflation, recession risk and stress in transport-intensive sectors. Nuclear advocates argued that nuclear power could serve both climate and energy-security objectives, with the US administration portrayed as more supportive of nuclear development and used-fuel recycling. Sources linked the energy shock to inflation, recession risk and stress in transport-intensive sectors. 24 41 42 Nuclear advocates argued that nuclear power could serve both climate and energy-security objectives, with the US administration portrayed as more supportive of nuclear development and used-fuel recycling. 9
+2429 voices