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Oil & Geopolitics

Sample
Oct 14 · 28 voices
i

About this edition

36 items · printed Oct 15, 03:35 ET

Tap any number in the text for its receipt — who said it, when, and the clip.

A sample edition, written from this desk's voices for everyone. Your own paper is written only from the voices you pick.

The central claim was that the Iran conflict had reduced and distorted oil flows without producing a $200 oil shock, but prolonged refined-product tightness could still worsen inflation and trigger export restrictions.

WTI $95.17 +2.1%Diesel $4.71 +1.8% Oct 6closes of Oct 6–Oct 14

The period was dominated by the Iran war’s effects on Middle Eastern oil logistics, refined products and inflation. Javier Blas argued that Hormuz flows remained materially active despite disruption, while warning that prolonged tightness could prompt formal or informal diesel export controls 111315. Other commentary linked higher oil and diesel costs to inflation, rates and market rotation 13161933. The followed topics American Petroleum Institute, attacks, blockade, Brent crude, Chris Wright, data-center, diesel ban, diesel crack spread, diesel crisis, diesel export ban, diesel fuel, diesel futures, drawdown, East-West Pipeline, elections, fuel prices, Gasoline, Jordi Visser, Latam, Mario Nawfal, Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, nuclear, Oil & Gas, oil exports, Pakistan, record high, Solar, Trump administration and U.S. Energy Information Administration received no attention in this pool [topic list].

+2328 voices

What happened

Javier Blas said Middle Eastern (ex‑Iran) crude flows are holding around 70–75% of pre‑war levels despite attacks, but refined‑product tightness could prompt export restrictions if the situation persists.111315

1 of 28

Alasdair Macleod warned that sustained, successful attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure could collapse Saudi Arabia’s economy and trigger wider financial stress.10

1 of 28

Amena Bakr reported that Strait of Hormuz flows have dropped and that the conflict is escalating with exposed energy infrastructure and depleted stocks pointing to higher oil prices.2729

1 of 28
Show 1 moreShow fewer

IEA and other commentators signalled a prolonged diesel squeeze into 2027, linking tight fuel markets to inflation, yield moves and market rotation.316192433

5 of 28

“I still don't see that we're going to go to $150, $175, $200.”

JB Javier BlasJeffrey Currie ++ ▶ 4:44

Where they disagree

How severe and durable the oil shock will be

AM

Severe lasting oil shock10

1 voice

Escalation points to higher oil29

1 voice

The desk

How the desk is calling it

32 of 49 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: WTI on Nov 3, Gareth Soloway's call; 3 calls open.

Where they stand · oil

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish
  • range-bound

WTI crude futures · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

WTI crude futures, 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions$90$95$100Sep 15Oct 1Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge.Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge.Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike.Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals.Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall.Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week.Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace.Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices.Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation.Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective.Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer.Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again.Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut.Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher.David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices.Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely.David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze.Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down.Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows.Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock.Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher.Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens.J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it.Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation.Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility.Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump.Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds.James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends.Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues.Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par.Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks.Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel.
WTI crude futures, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions$90$95Oct 1Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall.Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week.Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace.Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices.Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation.Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective.Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer.Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again.Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut.Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher.David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices.Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely.David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze.Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down.Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows.Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock.Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher.Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens.J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it.Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation.Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility.Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump.Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds.James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends.Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues.Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par.Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks.Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel.
WTI crude futures, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-14, with 49 desk voices' positions$80$90$100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge.Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge.Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike.Rory Johnston · Sep 17 · down — Johnston flagged concern about the durability of the crude rally, suggesting prices were likely to fall in the short term as flows dominate fundamentals.Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil.Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall.Rory Johnston · Sep 22 · down — Johnston reads the crude market as selling off on the headline, with traders selling first and asking questions later.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — He says risks to crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the near term.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week.Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace.Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · down — A renewed risk-on sentiment would likely come with a pullback in US bond yields and, most importantly, crude oil prices.Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation.Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective.Nate Hagens · Sep 25 · down — Hagens expects the era of cheap, abundant crude to end as the richest, cheapest barrels are already burned and remaining supply costs more to extract.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer.Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again.Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut.Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 30 · down — Strong Middle East supply and rebounding exports are pressuring crude prices, with a break below $89 opening a deeper decline.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — As long as the war continues and Hormuz stays throttled, crude and product prices will keep grinding higher.David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · down — Energy prices will peak out rather than keep rising, so no continuous escalation in refined product prices.Razan Hilal · Oct 1 · up — A close above the 2011–2026 resistance near 120 would open a longer-term bullish phase for crude oil, though below it consolidation or pullback is likely.David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze.Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Expects crude prices to remain relatively elevated until confidence is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down.Rory Johnston · Oct 2 · up — Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows.Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock.Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher.Josh Young · Oct 5 · up — Expects much higher crude oil prices, with falling inventories and elevated Q4 refining activity as the trigger.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens.J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it.Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation.Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility.Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.Adam Tooze · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.Dan Nathan · Oct 9 · up — Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.Richard D. Wolff · Oct 10 · up — Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.Rory Johnston · Oct 10 · mixed — Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.Rory Johnston · Oct 11 · down — Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.Bob Elliott · Oct 12 · up — Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump.Bruno Santos · Oct 12 · down — Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · up — Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 12 · up — Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds.James Stanley · Oct 12 · up — Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · down — Expects oil prices to tumble once the war with Iran ends.Michael Every · Oct 13 · up — Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues.Peter Berezin · Oct 13 · steady — Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · down — Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · up — Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par.Amena Bakr · Oct 14 · up — Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks.Javier Blas · Oct 14 · down — Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel.

WTI crude futures rose from $78.28 to $95.17 since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 32 bullish, 15 bearish, 2 range-bound.

Their record ✓ 1✗ 0

✓Brent ≥ $120.00: Razan Hilal. Called it on Oct 2. Brent $135.51 on Oct 2.
○US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027: The Kobeissi Letter.
○Brent should be around $90: Robin Brooks.
○offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run: Charles Lemonides.

What settles next

3 NovWTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway: “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.17, −18.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 DecWTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz: “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.17, −26.4% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “crude oil back down to $40” (Oct 8) · WTI ≤ $40.00No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

Javier Blas

Despite repeated Iranian attacks, Middle East ex‑Iran crude flows remain materially active (~70–75% of pre‑war levels) but longer‑lasting refined‑product tightness raises the risk of formal or shadow diesel export restrictions.111315

AM

Alasdair Macleod

Sustained successful attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure could leave Saudi Arabia economically finished and precipitate broad financial turmoil.10

Amena Bakr

Hormuz flows have dropped as the conflict escalates, energy infrastructure is exposed and inventories are being depleted, implying higher oil prices.2729

Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )

The IEA warns the diesel squeeze from the Iran war will likely last well into 2027, with falling inventories and steepening cracks signalling prolonged tightness.24

Robin Brooks

Rising oil prices alongside hotter inflation readings are contributing to volatile market and bond reactions, suggesting oil is influencing expectations.3

The Kobeissi Letter

Nasdaq weakness coincides with US oil prices topping $96/barrel and rising Treasury yields amid hot inflation data.16

Geiger Capital

Gasoline price rises accounted for over half of September’s inflation increase, linking the Iran war to midterm political effects.19

TH

Thomas Hayes

Higher energy prices from the Iran situation are feeding into inflation expectations and consumer sentiment, affecting market and sector rotations.33

12 of this desk's 20 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Anas Alhajji, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Erik Townsend, Evan, Joseph Wang, Michael Every

On the record

USSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +13

Steve H. Hanke Expects no US recession anytime soon because the money supply is still growing.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the US Treasury to inflate away its debt, implying a massive devaluation of the dollar.↗

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq Expects the US economy to wobble if financial conditions around AI capex deteriorate, since it rests on a single AI-driven story.↗

Wolf Richter Expects the US economy to keep running hot, with strong nominal growth and inflation staying elevated.↗

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Robin Wigglesworth Expects the US economy to keep growing at a fast rate and does not worry about the US going bust anytime soon.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, the largest among major developed economies.↗

Ananth Krishnan Expects India-US relations to remain difficult for now, though the relationship stays important to India.↗

Tavi Costa Expects the US to inflate its way out of its debt problem rather than deflate, with a 75-80% probability.↗

Grant Cardone Expects the US economy to enter the greatest economic expansion since the Industrial Revolution, and to be deflationary rather than inflationary.↗

Peter Schiff Expects higher rates to create a lot of problems in the US economy, which was built on real estate.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects American politics and consciousness to tilt back toward government actively improving average people's lives, with more socialists winning office in US cities.↗

Nate Donnay Expects US milk production growth to stay above 2% as the herd expansion supports output.↗

Luke Gromen Expects an austerity-driven US recession to trigger debt collapse, banking system collapse and hyperinflation versus gold.↗

Brent Johnson Expects the U.S. to consolidate power and remain the dominant global power rather than decline, likening it to Republican Rome becoming the Empire.↗

Jurrien Timmer Expects US earnings and payout growth to be peaking, with the second derivative due to roll over.↗

oilSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +12

Steve H. Hanke Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par.↗

Javier Blas Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel.↗

Amena Bakr Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks.↗

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Thomas Hayes Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations.↗

Peter Berezin Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that.↗

Michael Every Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues.↗

Robin Brooks Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise.↗

Fiona Cincotta Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds.↗

Bob Elliott Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump.↗

Dan Nathan Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.↗

Rory Johnston Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.↗

Peter Boockvar Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.↗

dieselSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +6

Steve H. Hanke Expects diesel prices to stay high for quite some time, agreeing with the IEA that the squeeze lasts into late 2027.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects diesel shortages and sharply higher prices as winter energy demand hits.↗

Bruno Santos Expects the diesel market to stay tight and its supply to keep falling as attacks continue in Russia and the Gulf, heading into peak winter demand.↗

Fiona Cincotta Expects additional Russian diesel supplies to ease tightness in the refined products market and pressure on fuel prices, particularly in the US.↗

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Richard D. Wolff Notes diesel has more than doubled over the past year and expects oil-driven diesel prices to keep climbing.↗

Joseph Wang Says diesel is already at $200 a barrel, very high, and is the real bottleneck; refining constraints won't be fixed easily.↗

Adam Tooze Expects the diesel crisis to intensify, with 2026 a moment of truth as supplies and stocks are exhausted.↗

Mike McGlone Expects diesel to have peaked, with December heating oil futures around $350 versus the front contract near $490.↗

U.S.Peter Berezin, Matt Warder +4

Peter Berezin Expects a weaker US economy when the AI boom ends, with a larger shock and a more muted policy response.↗

Matt Warder Sees the US coal revenue outlook as steady state and pretty promising from here.↗

Joe Aldina Expects U.S. met coal exports to China to recover to around the 10 million ton level, which is bullish for U.S. producers.↗

Raphael Bulascoschi Expects the U.S. corn crop to be smaller in 26/27, with U.S. corn stocks set to tighten.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects an almost guaranteed recession in the U.S. driven by the stock market going down.↗

Luke Gromen Expects the U.S. cannot muddle through like Japan and faces a debt spiral, with a dollar-up, rates-up, economy-down vicious cycle.↗

IndiaCaleb Silver, Joe Aldina +3

Caleb Silver Says India's stock market weakness is temporary and the country will come back.↗

Joe Aldina Expects India to be forced to import more coal short term, keeping the market tight and bullish.↗

Nate Hagens Expects AI to take the call-center and outsourcing work that has been India's upward path, with the impact already visible.↗

Adam Tooze Expects India to be in a rather strong position thanks to its large, sophisticated petrochemical sector and recently built refineries.↗

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Marcelo Bonifacio Expects India to produce only about what it consumes, leaving low stocks and requiring more sugar imports after its crop ends around May or June.↗

UkraineAlexander De Croo, Anas Alhajji +3

Alexander De Croo Expects Ukraine to rebuild its energy grid as a decentralized grid of the future with more redundancy.↗

Anas Alhajji Expects Ukrainians to keep dying as the West fights Russia to the last Ukrainian.↗

Bertrand Oesterle Expects Ukraine's winter wheat area could be 17% lower than last year, with less export revenue to finance the next crop.↗

Nate Hagens Expects warfare in Ukraine to become increasingly automated, with AI-controlled drones and machine-run targeting replacing human decisions.↗

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Adam Tooze Expects Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries to give it leverage in the war.↗

crude oilJavier Blas, Bruno Santos +3

Javier Blas Expects the crude market to tilt into a deficit as Hormuz volumes are lost and buyers stockpile.↗

Bruno Santos Expects crude oil prices to trade lower in the near term as Middle Eastern supply recovers and G7 stocks are released, though he does not expect a return to pre-war levels.↗

Adam Tooze Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story.↗

Fawad Razaqzada Expects higher crude oil prices, which risk feeding into inflation.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects crude oil to scale back down toward $40, with the December WTI contract seen closer to $50-60.↗

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Saudi ArabiaAmena Bakr, Alasdair Macleod +2

Amena Bakr Expects further escalation in the conflict with the Houthis, as neither side is ready to negotiate.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects Saudi Arabia's economy to collapse into civil strife as it cannot get its oil out.↗

Bruno Santos Expects Saudi and Iraqi flows to stay relatively high, with Yambu loading again and Aramco cutting OSPs to Asia to win back market share.↗

Evan Expects the Saudi-Houthi conflict to remain within its current limits and build toward a truce rather than escalate.↗

coalAnas Alhajji, Matt Warder +2

Anas Alhajji Has been bullish on coal since last year, expecting its price to rise.↗

Matt Warder Expects strong thermal pricing to underpin the whole met complex and put a floor under it.↗

Joe Aldina Expects thermal coal prices to have room to run higher, with strong upside option value from low gas storage and weather risk.↗

Nate Hagens Expects coal retirements worldwide to be deferred as data center load arrives.↗

crudeRory Johnston, Dan Nathan +1

Rory Johnston Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude.↗

Dan Nathan Says crude is not going lower anytime soon because there will be no peace deal with Iran.↗

Peter Boockvar Expects crude prices to remain elevated for a while given lost barrels and prolonged conflict.↗

energyIndy Johar, Tavi Costa +1

Indy Johar Expects a super cycle of energy demand driving unprecedented investment in energy innovation.↗

Tavi Costa Expects energy companies, especially US service companies, to do well as activity increases.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects offshore drilling and offshore production to keep growing for another five to ten years.↗

GasolineBruno Santos, Mike McGlone

Bruno Santos Expects gasoline margins to keep easing seasonally, though not back to normal levels anytime soon.↗

Mike McGlone Expects the price of gasoline to get back down to two bucks.↗

GreeceWalter Bloomberg, Robin Brooks

Walter Bloomberg Sees Greece's sovereign debt crisis as posing less systemic risk to the eurozone than France's current debt problems.↗

Robin Brooks Warns that if the widening in spreads continues, Greece faces a return to the euro zone debt crisis doom loop with deposit flight.↗

IranRobin Brooks, Richard D. Wolff

Robin Brooks Expects Iran's economy to contract far more than the IMF's -7.6% 2026 forecast implies.↗

Richard D. Wolff it can obtain any weapons from Russia and China and is in an extraordinarily powerful position.↗

Middle EastAlasdair Macleod, Joseph Wang

Alasdair Macleod Expects nothing to come out of the Middle East for a considerable time as shipping is effectively shut.↗

Joseph Wang Expects no more Middle Eastern hot war and a diplomatic deal worked out before the midterms, which would be good for the global economy and yields.↗

RefiningJavier Blas, Bruno Santos

Javier Blas Notes refining margins have ballooned to $30-$50 a barrel from $10-$12, and expects stockpiling demand to keep the sector strong.↗

Bruno Santos Sees the global refining crisis persisting, with ~14% of capacity offline in September versus a normal ~7%, and unplanned outages half the total.↗

RussiaAnas Alhajji, Adam Tooze

Anas Alhajji Expects Russia to keep collecting revenues despite the Graham sanctions, which he says have had no real impact.↗

Adam Tooze Expects Russia to be hurt by Ukrainian strikes on its diesel refining capacity, which are hitting a nerve.↗

South KoreaRipley Atkinson, Adam Tooze

Ripley Atkinson Expects South Korean buying interest to keep supporting the market and improve as the year progresses.↗

Adam Tooze Expects South Korea to be in a rather strong position thanks to its large, modern refining capacity.↗

Strait of HormuzRobin Brooks, Richard D. Wolff

Robin Brooks Expects Iran to lose its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, as its attacks there signal weakening control.↗

Richard D. Wolff Does not expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal until Iran's demands are met and the US leaves the Gulf.↗

AsiaBruno Santos

Bruno Santos Expects Asian demand to recover as countries restock, which he calls an upside risk for prices further down the road.↗

BrentRobin Brooks

Robin Brooks Expects Brent to fall to around $90, well below the $110 seen in March and April.↗

GulfNatalie Scott-Gray

Natalie Scott-Gray Sees near-term risks for aluminium firmly to the upside, with any re-escalation in the Gulf a threat.↗

HormuzAmena Bakr

Amena Bakr Sees the risk around Hormuz as growing, with more attacks on vessels there.↗

IraqBruno Santos

Bruno Santos Expects Iraqi flows to stay relatively high alongside Saudi volumes.↗

IsraelRichard D. Wolff

Richard D. Wolff Expects Israel's position to worsen once the US backs away, forcing it to come to terms with Iran and Turkey.↗

PakistanEvan

Evan Expects Pakistan's reported role in the Yemen conflict to remain a staged performance rather than a real escalation.↗

Red SeaEvan

Evan Expects the Red Sea war risk to stay contained, with the conflict moving toward a truce rather than escalating.↗

SolarLuke Gromen

Luke Gromen Expects solar plus battery returns of 15-20% annualized, an inflation-hedged bond, and sees demand for silver from solar taking the over.↗

TurkeyRobin Brooks

Robin Brooks Sees Turkey at risk of becoming a primary node for global transmission if the outbreak in Russia is serious and spreads.↗

WTIJames Stanley

James Stanley Expects WTI to be trying to bottom near the 90 handle, and sees crude back above 100 as a problem for markets.↗

YemenAmena Bakr

Amena Bakr Expects further escalation in the Houthi–Saudi conflict, with neither side ready for negotiations.↗

gasNate Hagens

Nate Hagens Expects gas plant use and construction to rise, with mothballed plants restarted and turbines ordered in gigawatt blocks.↗

More from the desk

Hormuz disruption, but not closureJavier Blas estimated Middle Eastern crude flows excluding Iran at roughly 70–75% of pre-war levels, down from about 85% around late September and early October, while saying substantial volumes were still crossing Hormuz. He warned that continued Iranian escalation could target loading ports, pipelines and oil-field processing facilities rather than close the strait outright.

Javier Blas estimated Middle Eastern crude flows excluding Iran at roughly 70–75% of pre-war levels, down from about 85% around late September and early October, while saying substantial volumes were still crossing Hormuz 1115. He warned that continued Iranian escalation could target loading ports, pipelines and oil-field processing facilities rather than close the strait outright 15.

Oil-price ceiling versus prolonged supply stressBlas said he remained bearish relative to forecasts of $150–$200 oil and attributed the market’s failure to reach $200 partly to weaker Chinese seaborne buying and a smaller-than-expected economic shock. In contrast, Alasdair Macleod forecast a collapse in Saudi Arabia’s economy if attacks prevented its oil and derivatives exports, while Amena Bakr linked depleted stocks and infrastructure attacks to higher prices.

Blas said he remained bearish relative to forecasts of $150–$200 oil and attributed the market’s failure to reach $200 partly to weaker Chinese seaborne buying and a smaller-than-expected economic shock 15. In contrast, Alasdair Macleod forecast a collapse in Saudi Arabia’s economy if attacks prevented its oil and derivatives exports, while Amena Bakr linked depleted stocks and infrastructure attacks to higher prices 1029.

Diesel tightness and policy interventionThe IEA was reported as expecting diesel constraints to persist into the latter half of 2027, with inventories falling, cracks rising and supply below demand in the fourth quarter of 2026. Blas said the White House’s threatened diesel export ban was initially more a negotiating instrument than a serious measure, but warned that longer disruption could produce official or shadow restrictions in countries including Nigeria, India and China.

The IEA was reported as expecting diesel constraints to persist into the latter half of 2027, with inventories falling, cracks rising and supply below demand in the fourth quarter of 2026 24. Blas said the White House’s threatened diesel export ban was initially more a negotiating instrument than a serious measure, but warned that longer disruption could produce official or shadow restrictions in countries including Nigeria, India and China 1315.

Inflation, rates and asset-market effectsSeveral commentators connected higher oil or gasoline prices with hotter inflation, rising yields and pressure on equities. Thomas Hayes said the Iran conflict was feeding consumer inflation expectations, while arguing that opportunities were shifting toward smaller companies, value, international stocks and natural gas rather than crowded technology trades.

Several commentators connected higher oil or gasoline prices with hotter inflation, rising yields and pressure on equities 13161933. Thomas Hayes said the Iran conflict was feeding consumer inflation expectations, while arguing that opportunities were shifting toward smaller companies, value, international stocks and natural gas rather than crowded technology trades 33.

Russia, Iran and Saudi narratives divergedMacleod portrayed Russia as a resilient modern economy and rejected claims in the UK press that it was near collapse, while also suggesting Russian diesel could include Iranian-origin supply. Other items highlighted Iran’s sharply negative growth outlook and attacks on Saudi-linked infrastructure, but the evidence does not establish a single agreed assessment of either country’s economic position.

Macleod portrayed Russia as a resilient modern economy and rejected claims in the UK press that it was near collapse, while also suggesting Russian diesel could include Iranian-origin supply 10. Other items highlighted Iran’s sharply negative growth outlook and attacks on Saudi-linked infrastructure, but the evidence does not establish a single agreed assessment of either country’s economic position 17252628.

Earlier editions

Oct 14 The central claim was that the Iran conflict had reduced and distorted oil flows without producing a $200 oil › Oct 14 Hormuz and regional attacks were presented as sustaining a costly refined-product and shipping shock, even as › Oct 13 Oil supply has partly normalised, but Hormuz risk, shipping costs and tight diesel markets kept the energy sho › Oct 13 The main disagreement was whether the oil-market constraint was an immediate crude-transit shock or a refining › Oct 12 Hormuz and refining constraints kept the energy market tight, but the scale and persistence of the supply shoc › Oct 12 Geopolitical escalation remained severe, but oil-price signals were contested as markets looked through some o › Oct 11 Hormuz attacks and the Russia-Ukraine energy dispute dominated, with disagreement over the severity of the oil › Oct 11 Hormuz attacks and the broader Iran conflict were portrayed as the central oil-market risk, but views diverged ›