Inflation, oil and fiscal stress kept upward pressure on yields, but sources disagreed over whether the bond market was stabilising or approaching a broader debt-driven break.
CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Fed 4.00% Gold $4,220 +1.5% Diesel $4.71 +1.8% S&P 500 7,812 +0.6% Copper $6.71 +2.1% closes of Oct 6–Oct 9
The period’s rates discussion focused on persistent inflation and energy pressures, rising yields, fiscal concerns, and whether bond-market stability represented genuine demand or only temporary relief. Joseph Wang said a strong 10-year auction had created a soft ceiling for yields, while other voices warned that debt dynamics, French fiscal deterioration, and forced selling were driving yields higher 1 6 10 17 . Views also diverged on the policy path: some expected further rate hikes, whereas Lance Roberts argued that falling oil could pull yields lower and support rate-sensitive sectors 1 3 26 . Several followed topics received no attention in this pool, including the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve System, Federal Open Market Committee, Bank for International Settlements, and the 10-year Treasury as a standalone topic.
What happened
A strong 10-year auction and low primary-dealer takedown appeared to create a soft ceiling for yields and stabilise the 10-year, according to Joseph Wang.1
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Some speakers warned that rising debt costs, deficits and weaker foreign demand were creating a self-reinforcing debt spiral and signs the bond market was breaking down.8
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The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that investor concerns about France’s deteriorating fiscal situation have widened the gap between corporate and government yields.6
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Show 2 more Show fewer
Lance Roberts argued that a fall in oil prices could pull inflation and yields lower and trigger a trade into rate-sensitive sectors.3
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Gary Wagner said oil-driven inflation expectations make higher rates by year-end highly probable.26
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“we seem to have reached a level of yields that is drawing a lot of investor interest”
Where they disagree Near-term direction of yields and monetary policy
Further rate hikes expected1
1 voice
LR Yields could fall if oil drops3
1 voice
GW Higher rates likely by year-end26
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
24 of 34 voices lean bullish on oil. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 22 calls open.
Where they stand · oil
i
Reading the chart ✕ WTI crude futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 4 Full · since Jul 13 WTI crude futures, 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · down — Brooks argues that the market's fear-driven oil rally is misplaced and that the situation is fundamentally bearish for oil prices. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Oil is hitting $100, which will add further inflation. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — Suppressed prices post-war brought on the return to highs; oil at $120 would be a crisis. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Sees reason to be bullish on oil because the current flow arrangement through Hormuz is not a sustainable new normal. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. WTI crude futures, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions $90 $95 $100 Sep 15 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · down — Brooks argues that the market's fear-driven oil rally is misplaced and that the situation is fundamentally bearish for oil prices. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Oil is hitting $100, which will add further inflation. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — Suppressed prices post-war brought on the return to highs; oil at $120 would be a crisis. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Sees reason to be bullish on oil because the current flow arrangement through Hormuz is not a sustainable new normal. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. WTI crude futures, 2026-07-13 to 2026-10-09, with 34 desk voices' positions $80 $90 $100 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · down — Brooks argues that the market's fear-driven oil rally is misplaced and that the situation is fundamentally bearish for oil prices. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Oil is hitting $100, which will add further inflation. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — Suppressed prices post-war brought on the return to highs; oil at $120 would be a crisis. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · down — Brooks expects no further sharp spike in oil prices, implying limited upside from here. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · down — Brooks expects oil to keep flowing from Yanbu storage, so the supply disruption and price spike will fade. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — If the plan is to kill the global economy with higher oil prices, it will fail and lead to higher oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 14 · down — The extreme upside scenarios for oil prices are not the real story, implying less price risk than the narrative suggests. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · down — Brooks argues the apocalyptic oil-rally narrative is giving way to facts, implying oil prices won't surge. Amena Bakr · Sep 16 · down — The oil price drop reflects traders de-risking rather than a genuine all-clear, with the market repricing toward partial recovery. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Brooks argues the spot Brent premium is not a leading signal and oil prices will not surge. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — The oil price panic is over and the market is far more resilient than the $200-oil crowd admits, implying prices won't spike. Robin Brooks · Sep 19 · down — Brooks thinks the oil bulls' panic narratives are no longer working, implying downside for oil. Robin Brooks · Sep 22 · down — The case for oil price spikes is fading, so he expects oil prices to fall. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Oil will hit record all-time highs, north of $147, and over $200 a barrel in the 2030s on supply shortfalls. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He is long oil, calling it a bullish trend and trade, and bought more this week. Michael Every · Sep 24 · up — Oil's drop is driven by unjustified hope; the Middle East escalation means supply risk persists and prices should not be priced for peace. Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Ceresna positions for renewed crude oil strength, expecting another pipeline or export-route disruption to reverse the latest relief move. Robin Brooks · Sep 24 · up — Oil prices are rising, which raises the odds of a US diesel export ban. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · up — Oil has further to go before it eventually tames interest rates and inflation. Michael Every · Sep 25 · up — Oil shipped through Hormuz is more expensive from a security-cost perspective. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff expects oil prices to go much higher as reserves run out and the government becomes a buyer. Rory Johnston · Sep 25 · down — The economics of high-cost Hormuz flows break down if global oil prices fall. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 26 · up — Oil's outlook stays constructive while it holds above the 50 and 200 EMA, with buyers needing a rise above 95. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — Energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, are the biggest risk and are shooting higher. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead calls the idea of $60 oil again delusional and says $55-60 oil may never be seen again. Doomberg · Sep 27 · down — Doomberg says crude falls when refineries are destroyed, and long term there will be a glut. Anas Alhajji · Sep 28 · up — Countries are locking in oil regardless of cost and building strategic storage, supporting demand. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · up — Higher oil pricing is continuing and will put pressure on equities. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He sees oil prices staying elevated because supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. David Hunter · Oct 1 · down — Hunter is bearish on oil, expecting it to roll over and possibly fall into the 30s in a global bust. David Hay · Oct 2 · up — Expects oil to spike higher and could see it hit $200 a barrel, with a possible near-term short squeeze. Michelle Brouhard · Oct 2 · up — Sees reason to be bullish on oil because the current flow arrangement through Hormuz is not a sustainable new normal. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · down — Expects oil prices to come down. Joseph Wang · Oct 3 · up — Expects oil to keep facing upward pressure from the Middle East war and the energy shock. Alex Krainer · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil prices to rise, finding it strange that with 15% of global supply taken out prices are still only around $100 a barrel. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to fall back if demand collapses, as in 2008, rather than stay at $100. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · down — Expects oil prices to crack as the economy is crushed. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Expects oil to keep moving higher. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · down — Expects WTI to fall to $78 by the midterms, and to the 60s or 50s if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens. J Mintzmyer · Oct 6 · up — Says oil will keep flowing and be consumed even at $100-110 a barrel; demand destruction only kicks in around $140-150. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Expects oil below $70 before the end of the year, and is shorting it. Alex Hodes · Oct 7 · down — Expects the G7 reserve releases to bring oil prices down in the near term, though not to solve the longer-term supply situation. Arthur Berman · Oct 7 · up — Expects a run-up in oil prices, followed by demand destruction and eventually a long global recession like after the first oil shocks. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · steady — Expects oil to stay range-bound around 95-105 Brent, with volatility. Amena Bakr · Oct 8 · up — Expects forces of nature to push oil prices up. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. WTI crude futures rose from $77.94 to $91.66 since Jul 13. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 24 bullish, 9 bearish, 1 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Bitcoin ≥ $85,000 : James Stanley. Called it on Oct 2. Bitcoin $85,489 on Oct 2.
○ Diplomatic resolution in the Middle East before the midterms : Joseph Wang.
○ AI companies to generate ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ December heating oil around $350 : Mike McGlone.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,812 now, +2.4% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level” S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000. They said Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000. Distance 7,812 now, +2.4% to go. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Wed
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 29 Oct GDP · Thu
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $91.66, −14.9% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Paul Cronin : “no Fed rate hike this year” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 4 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $91.66, −23.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Peter Boockvar : “two Fed rate hikes this year” (Oct 9). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
The voices
Joseph Wang
Recent stability in the 10-year yield was precipitated by a very good 10-year auction and low primary-dealer takedown, which places a soft ceiling on yields for now.1
LR Lance Roberts
A decline in oil prices should pull inflationary pressures and yields lower, creating a trade in rate-sensitive sectors like financials and real estate.3
GW Gary Wagner
Crude oil’s recent spike is feeding inflation and inflation expectations, making higher rates by year-end highly probable as the Fed reacts.26
open: Fed +0.25% by Dec 31 CM Chris Marcus
Rising debt burdens and swelling issuance alongside market dislocations suggest the bond market is breaking down and may have reached contagion points.8
Gary Bohm
Higher yields are creating a self-reinforcing debt spiral—greater interest costs widen deficits, requiring more borrowing and pushing yields further up.8
open: Gold ≥ $5,000 Robin Brooks
French bond yields have been going vertical and excuses like thin liquidity or hedge-fund selling are just that—France has itself to blame.10
open: Fed on hold by Oct 31 The Kobeissi Letter
Investor concerns about France’s deteriorating fiscal situation are widening the gap between corporate and government yields, making corporates look safer.6
13 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Amena Bakr, Anna Wong, Arnaud Bertrand, Blake Morrow, Brent Johnson, Dan Nathan, Dario Perkins, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Geiger Capital, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, jeroen blokland, Luke Gromen, Max Wiethe, Michael Every, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ), Warren Pies
More from the desk Inflation, oil and rate expectations Wang said higher oil prices, tariffs and stronger AI investment had shifted the base case toward two further rate hikes, though not consecutively. Gary Wagner likewise linked crude oil to inflation expectations and said markets assigned a high probability to higher rates by year-end. Roberts instead argued that a meaningful decline in oil could reduce inflationary pressure, pull yields lower and support interest-sensitive sectors. Wang said higher oil prices, tariffs and stronger AI investment had shifted the base case toward two further rate hikes, though not consecutively 1 . Gary Wagner likewise linked crude oil to inflation expectations and said markets assigned a high probability to higher rates by year-end 26 . Roberts instead argued that a meaningful decline in oil could reduce inflationary pressure, pull yields lower and support interest-sensitive sectors 3 .
Bond-market stability versus fiscal stress Bloomberg highlighted forced selling in long-duration Treasury futures, while Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos argued that bond pessimism had gone too far and that an AI bust could instead trigger a rush into bonds. Bloomberg highlighted forced selling in long-duration Treasury futures 17 , while Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos argued that bond pessimism had gone too far and that an AI bust could instead trigger a rush into bonds 20 .
European sovereign risk The Kobeissi Letter said French corporate bonds were increasingly trading through comparable government bonds because investors viewed internationally exposed companies as safer than French sovereign debt. Robin Brooks attributed sharply higher French yields to France itself rather than temporary liquidity or positioning explanations, while Bloomberg reported that European bonds had stabilised as falling oil prices eased budget concerns. The Kobeissi Letter said French corporate bonds were increasingly trading through comparable government bonds because investors viewed internationally exposed companies as safer than French sovereign debt 6 . Robin Brooks attributed sharply higher French yields to France itself rather than temporary liquidity or positioning explanations 10 , while Bloomberg reported that European bonds had stabilised as falling oil prices eased budget concerns 13 .
Rates and portfolio positioning Roberts argued that investors should assess bonds within a portfolio rather than focus only on near-term price moves, while warning that bond ETFs behave like trades on the direction of interest rates. Roberts argued that investors should assess bonds within a portfolio rather than focus only on near-term price moves, while warning that bond ETFs behave like trades on the direction of interest rates 3 .
+1924 voices
