Hot inflation raised rate-hike expectations, but falling Treasury yields signalled a competing flight-to-quality narrative.
Fed 4.00% CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts Sep Diesel $5.07 −0.9% Dollar 121.60 +0.1% Oct 9 WTI $97.55 +4.0% S&P 500 7,744 +0.3% closes of Oct 9–Oct 15
The period was dominated by hotter-than-expected US inflation and its implications for Federal Reserve policy: CPI was reported at 3.7%, while PPI reached 6.3% and core PPI 5.0% 10 21 . Several commentators argued this increased the risk of further rate hikes, including a possible December move 25 30 34 , although one market view treated October as a hold and December as the likely hike 25 . Despite the inflation shock, Treasury yields fell as investors rotated away from pressured technology stocks, prompting disagreement over whether this reflected a defensive regime shift or merely technical and positioning effects 12 19 23 .
What happened
US inflation prints came in hot with CPI at 3.7%, PPI at 6.3% and core PPI at 5.0%, raising rate-hike odds.10 21 30
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Despite hotter-than-expected inflation, 10-year Treasury yields fell as investors rotated out of pressured tech stocks into safer assets.19 23 39
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Commentators disagreed on the AI selloff: Neil Howe called declines an early warning for the AI boom while Dan Ives labelled them buying opportunities.4 28
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Market forecasts for Fed policy diverged, from Chris Zaccarelli expecting a December hike after an October hold to UBS forecasting three hikes through March 2027 and Robin Brooks warning of hawkish dissents if no hike occurs.25 33 34
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“Everyone thinks bonds are safe. No, bonds are not safe.”
Where they disagree Whether the AI selloff is a warning or a buying opportunity
NH AI selloff is warning4
1 voice
AI selloff is buy opportunity28
Dan Ives
The desk How the desk is calling it
45 of 66 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Calls settled lately: 1 right, 1 wrong. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 37 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 13 Full · since Jul 17 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Ben Inker · Oct 14 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 14 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, with October hike expectations rising sharply and a December hike now heavily priced in. Jesse Felder · Oct 14 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates cyclically and ultimately intervene with QE/yield-curve control rather than hold a Volcker-style hawkish line. Leonel Mattos · Oct 14 · up — Expects the Fed to embark on a cycle of rate hikes to stabilize inflation faster. Michael Howell · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Neil Howe · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the Fed may hike at least once more before year-end, but will reverse course and inflate if unemployment rises. Robin Brooks · Oct 14 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. Robin Brooks · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. Shriya Samarth · Oct 14 · mixed — Sees the October 28 Fed decision as a coin toss, with OIS pricing swinging between roughly 22% and 45% odds of a hike. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Ben Inker · Oct 14 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 14 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, with October hike expectations rising sharply and a December hike now heavily priced in. Jesse Felder · Oct 14 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates cyclically and ultimately intervene with QE/yield-curve control rather than hold a Volcker-style hawkish line. Leonel Mattos · Oct 14 · up — Expects the Fed to embark on a cycle of rate hikes to stabilize inflation faster. Michael Howell · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Neil Howe · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the Fed may hike at least once more before year-end, but will reverse course and inflate if unemployment rises. Robin Brooks · Oct 14 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. Robin Brooks · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. Shriya Samarth · Oct 14 · mixed — Sees the October 28 Fed decision as a coin toss, with OIS pricing swinging between roughly 22% and 45% odds of a hike. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-14, with 66 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October. James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down. Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case. Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead. John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December. Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027. Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike. Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish. Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. Ben Inker · Oct 14 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 14 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, with October hike expectations rising sharply and a December hike now heavily priced in. Jesse Felder · Oct 14 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates cyclically and ultimately intervene with QE/yield-curve control rather than hold a Volcker-style hawkish line. Leonel Mattos · Oct 14 · up — Expects the Fed to embark on a cycle of rate hikes to stabilize inflation faster. Michael Howell · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves. Neil Howe · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the Fed may hike at least once more before year-end, but will reverse course and inflate if unemployment rises. Robin Brooks · Oct 14 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. Robin Brooks · Oct 14 · steady — Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. Shriya Samarth · Oct 14 · mixed — Sees the October 28 Fed decision as a coin toss, with OIS pricing swinging between roughly 22% and 45% odds of a hike. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.18% to 4.82% since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 45 expect more hikes, 9 expect a pause or cuts, 11 expect a hold, 1 mixed.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 1
✗ CPI ≥ 4.00% by Oct 13 : Jeffrey Gundlach. Missed on Oct 14. CPI 3.72% on Sep 1.
✓ Dollar ≥ 104.00 : Todd Horwitz. Called it on Oct 8. Dollar 121.45 on Oct 8.
○ bond yields will rise significantly over the next two to three months : Alasdair Macleod.
○ monetary inflation running at 7%-8% per annum : Michael Howell.
○ AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months : Ben Inker.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,193 now, +0.5% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline James Stanley: “4100 test in the short term” COMEX gold futures with James Stanley's target ≤ $4,100 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≤ $4,100 James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. They said Sep 25: Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Distance $4,193 now, −2.2% to go. source ↗ 28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 29 Oct GDP · Thu
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 Nov WTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway : “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $97.55, −20.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 5 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner Joseph Wang
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec S&P 500 · Thu
Gareth Soloway : “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” (Oct 6). S&P 500 is at 7,744, +3.3% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (S&P 500).
31 Dec WTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz : “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $97.55, −28.2% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
The voices
NH Neil Howe
Neil Howe said the tech and chip selloff—led by data‑center names—is a tremor and an early warning that slowing data‑center growth could hurt the AI boom.4
Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks said yesterday’s CPI gives ammunition to FOMC members worried about entrenching inflation and that a no‑hike decision could prompt hawkish dissents.34
open: Fed on hold by Oct 31; Fed cut by Dec 31, 2027 SS Shriya Samarth
Shriya Samarth described the October Fed decision as a coin toss, noting hike odds surged after the CPI print and then receded.15
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Mohamed El‑Erian noted that despite hot CPI and PPI readings, 10‑year yields fell, likely due to a flight to quality out of pressured tech stocks and concerns about tech’s growth role.19 21
FC Fiona Cincotta
Fiona Cincotta said treasury yields retreated partly because investors rotated out of the tech sector into treasuries, boosting demand for non‑yielding assets like silver.23
open: S&P 500 ≥ 8,000 Walter Bloomberg
Walter Bloomberg reported US 10‑year Treasury yields extended their fall and were down 11 basis points at 5.08%.39
The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter warned that US inflation is 'RED hot', highlighting CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3% and saying the odds of rate hikes are rising sharply.10 29 30
16 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Amena Bakr, Anas Alhajji, Anna Wong, Arnaud Bertrand, Blake Morrow, Brent Johnson, Dan Nathan, Dario Perkins, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Jurrien Timmer, Luke Gromen, Max Wiethe, Michael Every, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Warren Pies
More from the desk Inflation and Fed tightening The Kobeissi Letter highlighted CPI near twice the Fed’s target and PPI above three times it, while Mohamed El-Erian described September PPI as materially above expectations, with headline PPI at 6.3% and core PPI at 5.0%. Shriya Samarth said sticky inflation made the October Fed decision uncertain, with rate-hike odds rising after CPI but subsequently easing; other commentary pointed to a December hike and possible further tightening into 2027. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted CPI near twice the Fed’s target and PPI above three times it 10 , while Mohamed El-Erian described September PPI as materially above expectations, with headline PPI at 6.3% and core PPI at 5.0% 21 . Shriya Samarth said sticky inflation made the October Fed decision uncertain, with rate-hike odds rising after CPI but subsequently easing 15 ; other commentary pointed to a December hike and possible further tightening into 2027 25 33 .
Treasury yields and defensive rotation Treasury yields declined despite the hot inflation data. Mohamed El-Erian attributed that move to a flight to quality from weakening technology stocks and emerging credit stress, while Fiona Cincotta linked lower yields to rotation from technology into Treasuries and renewed demand for precious metals. Treasury yields declined despite the hot inflation data 19 21 39 . Mohamed El-Erian attributed that move to a flight to quality from weakening technology stocks and emerging credit stress 19 , while Fiona Cincotta linked lower yields to rotation from technology into Treasuries and renewed demand for precious metals 23 .
AI, equities and financing conditions The sources presented conflicting interpretations of the technology selloff. Neil Howe called weakening tech and chip stocks a warning sign for the AI boom, and Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s results might not dispel doubts about the broader AI trade. Dan Ives instead characterised declines in AI infrastructure stocks as buying opportunities, arguing that higher borrowing costs would not necessarily weaken AI demand. The sources presented conflicting interpretations of the technology selloff. Neil Howe called weakening tech and chip stocks a warning sign for the AI boom 4 , and Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s results might not dispel doubts about the broader AI trade 45 . Dan Ives instead characterised declines in AI infrastructure stocks as buying opportunities, arguing that higher borrowing costs would not necessarily weaken AI demand 28 .
Energy and inflation transmission Diesel-market commentary described European stock releases as temporary relief while maintaining that the global market remained in shortage. Jeffrey Currie argued that physical energy-market disruption was broader than Brent pricing suggested, citing high diesel and gasoline costs and impaired price discovery. Diesel-market commentary described European stock releases as temporary relief while maintaining that the global market remained in shortage 7 . Jeffrey Currie argued that physical energy-market disruption was broader than Brent pricing suggested, citing high diesel and gasoline costs and impaired price discovery 8 .
Other central-bank and sovereign-bond pressure Bloomberg reported that India’s efforts to stabilise the rupee were increasing expectations of faster rate hikes and pressuring its bond market. Separately, commentary on France argued that widening spreads would test the ECB’s willingness to intervene, while Mario Draghi said the threshold for intervention was higher. The followed topics Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank for International Settlements, HM Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors received no attention in the supplied evidence during this period. Bloomberg reported that India’s efforts to stabilise the rupee were increasing expectations of faster rate hikes and pressuring its bond market 44 . Separately, commentary on France argued that widening spreads would test the ECB’s willingness to intervene, while Mario Draghi said the threshold for intervention was higher 40 . The followed topics Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank for International Settlements, HM Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors received no attention in the supplied evidence during this period 73 74 75 80 81 .
+2227 voices
