China
September 2026Live view →
Sceptical
Discussion portrayed China as economically consequential but internally imbalanced, strategically resilient and increasingly central to rivalry with the US. Views diverged sharply over whether US-China relations are fundamentally adversarial or economically interdependent, and over China’s domestic openness and external intentions. China’s energy security, rare-earth leverage, Taiwan, and its role in global trade and the Global South were recurring concerns.1012151725
Where the voices land
All voices 20 voices7 worsening13 improving
Sharply worsening
- NSNatalie Scott-GraySharply worsening Chinese domestic demand continues to underperform with weak credit growth and insufficient stimulus, keeping the growth trajectory soft. ▶ 0:03 What Base Metals Tightness Means for Copper Smel… · 29 Sept
- KMKeith McCulloughSharply worsening He is not long anything China, citing locals selling Shanghai and Shenzhen on the eve of the meeting. “So I'm not long anything China. I'm short India.” ▶ 35:34 2027 Market Bloodbath: Worse Than 2022's Bear Ma… · 24 Sept
- TRTrinhSharply worsening Trinh says Chinese data shows continued weakness, with exports the only bright spot. “China is an example where data shows continued weakness with exports the only bright star” Open the post Good morning Asia, Rates are rising and the que… · 14 Sept
Worsening
- RJRory JohnstonWorsening China's crude oil imports have pulled back dramatically, by about 5.5 million barrels a day at the monthly peak. ▶ 13:23 The Shocking Reason Gas Prices Can’t Come Down A… · 30 Sept
- BOBertrand OesterleWorsening China did not commit to buying more US soybeans and its Sinograin purchases and auctions have been disappointing, leaving less room for imports. “the Chinese did not commit to buy any more U.S. soybeans” ▶ 4:10 Diesel Rattles Grains & Oilseeds but Soybeans Bo… · 30 Sept
- BJBrent JohnsonWorsening China is awash in too much debt, part of a global setup for big trouble. “it's all of china has too much debt europe has too much debt south america has too much debt” ▶ 2:43 How the U.S. power move in Greenland impacts you… · 27 Sept
- JSJeff SniderWorsening The Chinese aren't in great shape either, so preserving the status quo on trade suits both sides. “at the same time the chinese aren't in great shape either” ▶ 26:38 Rare Recession Indicator Is ‘Screaming’—No One’s… · 26 Sept
Improving
- PCPeter CoxImproving China has developed satellite capabilities comparable to Ceres, giving the world a second source of climate data. ▶ 15:17 Is The Earth Warming Faster Than We Thought? | E… · 30 Sept
- BPBen PouladianImproving China is eager to join the data center buildout and sell commodity components to providers worldwide. “a country like china who's just basically chomping at the bit to join the party” ▶ 27:33 Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Me… · 30 Sept
- DODoombergImproving Doomberg argues China has insulated itself on energy — coal, renewables, nuclear, hydro all domestic — leaving only crude oil as a vulnerability. “Russia's electricity grid is 100% impervious to fuel attacks” ▶ 49:06 DOOMBERG | All roads lead to the printer! · 27 Sept
- JWJoseph WangImproving Good U.S.-China relations are good for the global economy and the president wants a working relationship. “having good relationships with China, obviously very good for the global economy” ▶ 15:53 Markets Weekly September 26, 2026 · 26 Sept
- MCMike CastleImproving US-China relations appear to be improving, which is constructive for ag demand and the global economy. “it does appear that things are improving and that has major implications, not just for the soybean market, for the broader commodity markets” ▶ 4:57 China Ag Purchases Get Pandas Not Paperwork for … · 25 Sept
- MEMichael EveryImproving China wins fantastically well from the status quo without war and has armored its economy against coercion. “They win fantastically well from the status quo without war.” ▶ 37:16 MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Glo… · 24 Sept
- LGLuke GromenImproving China is about to sell even more EVs, solar panels and batteries into Europe, implying its export position strengthens. “China about to sell even more EV's, solar panels, & batteries into Europe.” Open the post China about to sell even more EV's, solar panels… · 18 Sept
- BSBrad SetserImproving China's net auto exports will exceed 10 million this year, easily topping Japan and Germany combined. “China's net auto exports this year (will over 10m) will also easily top the combined net exports of Japan and Germany.” Open the post Stunning. China's net auto exports this year … · 17 Sept
- ETErik TownsendImproving Townsend argues the AI arms race with China is real and that China gaining LLM supremacy would confer massive geopolitical advantage, so the competitive threat from China is serious and growing. “the real core central issue is that AI has become an "arms race" between USA and China, with the winner on LLMs gaining massive geopolitical advantage” Open the post I think the REPLIES to Jacob's excellent thread … · 9 Sept
- GBGary BohmImproving China will keep advancing its A.I., power, grid and industrial buildout without pausing. “China is not pausing A.I. advancements, campus buildouts, power, grids, or the industrial base behind them.” Open the post China will not pause, so America cannot either. … · 9 Sept
Sharply improving
- ABArnaud BertrandSharply improving He predicts an avalanche of Chinese mini-series will hit global social feeds, greatly expanding China's cultural reach. “an absolute avalanche of Chinese mini-series hitting every social feed on the planet” Open the post People are really not paying enough attention to… · 30 Sept
- RWRuby WangSharply improving China's biotech rise has been decades in the making and is now accelerating exponentially, with the direction of drug development reversed in its favor. ▶ 39:24 From Barefoot Doctors to Biologics: Dr. Ruby Wan… · 29 Sept
- CACarly AndersonSharply improving China is building most of the world's reactors and will double installed nuclear capacity within five years. ▶ 10:55 MacroVoices #548 Dr. Carly Anderson: Emerging En… · 3 Sept
Technology and soft power 7 voices7 improving
Improving
- PCPeter CoxImproving China has developed satellite capabilities comparable to Ceres, giving the world a second source of climate data. ▶ 15:17 Is The Earth Warming Faster Than We Thought? | E… · 30 Sept
- BPBen PouladianImproving China is eager to join the data center buildout and sell commodity components to providers worldwide. “a country like china who's just basically chomping at the bit to join the party” ▶ 27:33 Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Me… · 30 Sept
- DODoombergImproving Doomberg argues China has insulated itself on energy — coal, renewables, nuclear, hydro all domestic — leaving only crude oil as a vulnerability. “Russia's electricity grid is 100% impervious to fuel attacks” ▶ 49:06 DOOMBERG | All roads lead to the printer! · 27 Sept
- GBGary BohmImproving China will keep advancing its A.I., power, grid and industrial buildout without pausing. “China is not pausing A.I. advancements, campus buildouts, power, grids, or the industrial base behind them.” Open the post China will not pause, so America cannot either. … · 9 Sept
Sharply improving
- ABArnaud BertrandSharply improving He predicts an avalanche of Chinese mini-series will hit global social feeds, greatly expanding China's cultural reach. “an absolute avalanche of Chinese mini-series hitting every social feed on the planet” Open the post People are really not paying enough attention to… · 30 Sept
- RWRuby WangSharply improving China's biotech rise has been decades in the making and is now accelerating exponentially, with the direction of drug development reversed in its favor. ▶ 39:24 From Barefoot Doctors to Biologics: Dr. Ruby Wan… · 29 Sept
- CACarly AndersonSharply improving China is building most of the world's reactors and will double installed nuclear capacity within five years. ▶ 10:55 MacroVoices #548 Dr. Carly Anderson: Emerging En… · 3 Sept
Debt, demand and growth model 4 voices4 worsening
Sharply worsening
- NSNatalie Scott-GraySharply worsening Chinese domestic demand continues to underperform with weak credit growth and insufficient stimulus, keeping the growth trajectory soft. ▶ 0:03 What Base Metals Tightness Means for Copper Smel… · 29 Sept
Worsening
- RJRory JohnstonWorsening China's crude oil imports have pulled back dramatically, by about 5.5 million barrels a day at the monthly peak. ▶ 13:23 The Shocking Reason Gas Prices Can’t Come Down A… · 30 Sept
- BJBrent JohnsonWorsening China is awash in too much debt, part of a global setup for big trouble. “it's all of china has too much debt europe has too much debt south america has too much debt” ▶ 2:43 How the U.S. power move in Greenland impacts you… · 27 Sept
- JSJeff SniderWorsening The Chinese aren't in great shape either, so preserving the status quo on trade suits both sides. “at the same time the chinese aren't in great shape either” ▶ 26:38 Rare Recession Indicator Is ‘Screaming’—No One’s… · 26 Sept
Geopolitics and power rivalry 4 voices4 improving
Improving
- JWJoseph WangImproving Good U.S.-China relations are good for the global economy and the president wants a working relationship. “having good relationships with China, obviously very good for the global economy” ▶ 15:53 Markets Weekly September 26, 2026 · 26 Sept
- MCMike CastleImproving US-China relations appear to be improving, which is constructive for ag demand and the global economy. “it does appear that things are improving and that has major implications, not just for the soybean market, for the broader commodity markets” ▶ 4:57 China Ag Purchases Get Pandas Not Paperwork for … · 25 Sept
- MEMichael EveryImproving China wins fantastically well from the status quo without war and has armored its economy against coercion. “They win fantastically well from the status quo without war.” ▶ 37:16 MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Glo… · 24 Sept
- ETErik TownsendImproving Townsend argues the AI arms race with China is real and that China gaining LLM supremacy would confer massive geopolitical advantage, so the competitive threat from China is serious and growing. “the real core central issue is that AI has become an "arms race" between USA and China, with the winner on LLMs gaining massive geopolitical advantage” Open the post I think the REPLIES to Jacob's excellent thread … · 9 Sept
Exports and manufacturing 3 voices1 worsening2 improving
Sharply worsening
- TRTrinhSharply worsening Trinh says Chinese data shows continued weakness, with exports the only bright spot. “China is an example where data shows continued weakness with exports the only bright star” Open the post Good morning Asia, Rates are rising and the que… · 14 Sept
Improving
- LGLuke GromenImproving China is about to sell even more EVs, solar panels and batteries into Europe, implying its export position strengthens. “China about to sell even more EV's, solar panels, & batteries into Europe.” Open the post China about to sell even more EV's, solar panels… · 18 Sept
- BSBrad SetserImproving China's net auto exports will exceed 10 million this year, easily topping Japan and Germany combined. “China's net auto exports this year (will over 10m) will also easily top the combined net exports of Japan and Germany.” Open the post Stunning. China's net auto exports this year … · 17 Sept
7 worsening13 improving
Also asked
Policy 3 voices← against · for →1 against2 for
Against
- BSBrad SetserAgainst Setser argues a 0.5pp-of-GDP temporary fiscal stimulus in China is too small to make a difference, and notes the IMF has not really called for fiscal expansion there. “a 0.5 pp of GDP "temporary" fiscal stimulus won't move the needle” Open the post Moreover, the IMF hasn't really called for a fis… · 26 Sept
For
- CBChris BerryFor Berry judges Beijing's export controls as deliberate leverage it has no reason to remove. “I'm not sure why Beijing would consider this as it's huge leverage for them” ▶ 4:43 Tungsten: The War Over the Metal of War · 28 Sept
- DLDaniel LacalleFor Lacalle says China must be part of the solution alongside the U.S. to guarantee safe transit through Hormuz and the Red Sea. “They must be part of the solution, alongside the U.S., to guarantee safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz” Open the post The U.S. should not rush into a deal with Iran. … · 21 Sept
Mentions
907 in September 2026Mon 31Wed 23 · 70Thu 1
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Bloomberg 281 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 79 mentions
- Michael Pettis 68 mentions
- Arnaud Bertrand 56 mentions
- Anas Alhajji 52 mentions
- Brad Setser 45 mentions
- The Kobeissi Letter 33 mentions
- Michael Every 31 mentions
See what your own voices say about China, every morning.
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