US
Sceptical
Discussion focused on the United States’ deteriorating geopolitical and fiscal position, especially its Iran war, relations with China and Europe, and growing intervention in markets and institutions. Some speakers still view US assets, growth and strategic capacity as relatively resilient, while others see debt, political conflict, energy exposure and institutional retreat as signs of a more dangerous trajectory. The material is notably divided between claims of continued US leadership and warnings that America-first policies are weakening alliances and the rules-based order.
Where the voices land
9 improving6 worsening
- SHSteve H. HankeImproving Expects no US recession anytime soon because the money supply is still growing. “that suggests we we are not going to have a recession anytime anytime soon” ▶ 45:02 Hot Inflation Shocks Markets: The Worst Is Still… · 14 Oct
- AMAlasdair MacleodWorsening Expects the US Treasury to inflate away its debt, implying a massive devaluation of the dollar. ▶ 2:50 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- ʎꞱʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹqSharply worsening Expects the US economy to wobble if financial conditions around AI capex deteriorate, since it rests on a single AI-driven story. “If the financial vibes wobble, the real economy side is going to wobble too.” Open the post You can see that the market is moving towards a … · 14 Oct
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- WRWolf RichterSharply improving Expects the US economy to keep running hot, with strong nominal growth and inflation staying elevated. “That's the definition of an economy running hot.” ▶ 5:40 When A.I. Spending Starts Slowing, Start Worryin… · 14 Oct
- RWRobin WigglesworthImproving Expects the US economy to keep growing at a fast rate and does not worry about the US going bust anytime soon. ▶ 1:22 The Hater's Guide To Bonds With Rob Wigglesworth · 14 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply improving Expects the US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, the largest among major developed economies. “The US fiscal deficit is projected to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, its largest since 2012” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- AKAnanth KrishnanSharply worsening Expects India-US relations to remain difficult for now, though the relationship stays important to India. “even though we have to live with the difficult relationship with the U.S. we have for now” ▶ 22:25 India-China Relations Are Improving. Here's What… · 13 Oct
- TCTavi CostaImproving Expects the US to inflate its way out of its debt problem rather than deflate, with a 75-80% probability. “Gun to my head, I think there's a 75, 80% chance we're going to go inflate our way out.” ▶ 0:00 Bond Market Reckoning: Why Your Money Is Next | … · 12 Oct
- GCGrant CardoneSharply improving Expects the US economy to enter the greatest economic expansion since the Industrial Revolution, and to be deflationary rather than inflationary. “We're about to move into the greatest economic expansion since the Industrial Revolution. It's going to be deflationary, not inflationary.” ▶ 0:13 Peter Schiff & Grant Cardone Debate Housing Cras… · 11 Oct
- PSPeter SchiffSharply worsening Expects higher rates to create a lot of problems in the US economy, which was built on real estate. “it's going to create a lot of problems in in the real estate market and in the overall economy uh uh especially the us economy” ▶ 20:07 Peter Schiff & Grant Cardone Debate Housing Cras… · 11 Oct
- RDRichard D. WolffImproving Expects American politics and consciousness to tilt back toward government actively improving average people's lives, with more socialists winning office in US cities. “I can assure you there are more Mamdani's coming.” ▶ 44:45 Oil Crisis Escalates: When Does Iran War End? | … · 10 Oct
- NDNate DonnayImproving Expects US milk production growth to stay above 2% as the herd expansion supports output. “that probably means that u.s milk production growth will stay above two percent” ▶ 0:41 What Milk Production's Slowdown Means for Dairy … · 9 Oct
- LGLuke GromenSharply worsening Expects an austerity-driven US recession to trigger debt collapse, banking system collapse and hyperinflation versus gold. “if we do austerity, we trigger not just recession, but debt collapse, banking system collapse, & risk hyperinflation v. gold” Open the post ONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO… · 8 Oct
- BJBrent JohnsonSharply improving Expects the U.S. to consolidate power and remain the dominant global power rather than decline, likening it to Republican Rome becoming the Empire. “I think that is the more likely scenario for the United States now than one where the United States falls” ▶ 34:19 MacroVoices #553 Brent Johnson: Disparate Housew… · 8 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerWorsening Expects US earnings and payout growth to be peaking, with the second derivative due to roll over. “earnings, and payout CAGRs appear to be peaking on a 5-year basis” Open the post In the US and around the world, earnings, and pa… · 8 Oct
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- WRWolf RichterVery high risk · risk Warns that a recession, when it comes, would be worse than the dot-com bust because of the debt overhang. “I think this has a good chance of being worse than the dot-com bust.” ▶ 31:31 When A.I. Spending Starts Slowing, Start Worryin… · 14 Oct
- TCTavi CostaVery high risk · risk Warns the US debt problem is a growing risk, with interest payments to GDP hitting 5% and nothing being done about it. ▶ 37:20 Bond Market Reckoning: Why Your Money Is Next | … · 12 Oct
- BSBruno SantosVery high risk · risk Warns the US cushion is much thinner, with no spare refining capacity at ~98% utilization and far less room to tap reserves if another disruption hits. ▶ 3:37 Diesel Supply Tightens Despite Recovering Crude … · 12 Oct
- JFJohn FeneckFor · policy Wants to back US-based critical minerals companies because he expects the US to spend heavily on tungsten for munitions. “the us is going to spend a lot of money on this” ▶ 30:37 ‘Reminds Me Of 2008’: The Next Bust & Boom Nobod… · 11 Oct
- GCGrant CardoneStrongly cheap · valuation Says America is the best place in the world to buy and invest. “you should be buying America because America is the best, the best freaking game in town” ▶ 46:09 Peter Schiff & Grant Cardone Debate Housing Cras… · 11 Oct
- RDRichard D. WolffStrongly against · policy Wants the US to withdraw from the Middle East, calling leaving the best thing for the United States. “at this point, leaving is the best thing for the United States” ▶ 18:54 Oil Crisis Escalates: When Does Iran War End? | … · 10 Oct
- EBEric BalchunasAgainst · policy Believes US antitrust laws are no longer enforced. “I don't think they enforce anti-trust laws anymore” Open the post The Stock Market Is Currently Out of Breadth But… · 9 Oct
- WTWill ThompsonVery high risk · risk Expects the US to be a riskier place to operate for businesses and industries that previously paid little attention to political risk. ▶ 14:24 The World Is Underestimating the Coming Copper C… · 9 Oct
Mentions
385 this weekWed 7Mon 12 · 65Thu 15
Stories it travels in
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Who brings it up
- Bloomberg 164 mentions
- The Kobeissi Letter 32 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 29 mentions
- Josh Linville 18 mentions
- Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) 14 mentions
- David Lin 9 mentions
- Robin Brooks 8 mentions
- Javier Blas 8 mentions
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