US

Sharply worsening

• LGLaks GanapathiSharply worsening Ganapathi expects a major implosion in the US economy before any growth, regardless of Fed decisions. “There is going to be a huge implosion before there is going to be any growth.” ▶ 33:23 LAKS GANAPATHI | Gold & gold proxies have been t… · 30 Sept
• LLLawrence LepardSharply worsening Lepard says the US government has bankrupted itself and the country has been mismanaged. “the U S government has bankrupted itself, sadly” ▶ 50:38 No Living Investor Has Seen A Time Like This Bef… · 29 Sept
• BSBill SmeadSharply worsening The US government is the most indebted drunken borrower of all time, borrowing in prosperity with no capacity to respond if prosperity ends. “the United States government is the most indebted drunken borrower of all time. They're borrowing money in prosperity.” ▶ 50:19 ‘Almost 0%’ Chance Stocks Are Higher In 10 Years… · 27 Sept
• TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply worsening The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, so its fiscal outlook is deteriorating. “The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path.” Open the post BREAKING: The US deficit is now up to $1.97 tril… · 14 Sept

Worsening

• RJRory JohnstonWorsening A diesel export ban would be bad for industry and the full cycle of the U.S. economy and would break the refining system within a month or two. ▶ 31:35 The Shocking Reason Gas Prices Can’t Come Down A… · 30 Sept
• LGLuke GromenWorsening The US cannot catch up on electricity-driven growth without the bond market being crushed in real terms, so the consensus view of a painless catch-up is wrong. “bond investor consensus still thinks the US can catch up without the bond market being crushed in real terms, but that’s not possible” Open the post Few metrics are a better read on real economic g… · 30 Sept
• BWBryony WorthingtonWorsening The US is the largest fossil fuel exporter with a dogged pro-fossil narrative, and its climate picture is not looking great. “So it isn't looking great. We may have Tesla and Rivian, but most people are driving big, nice petrol trucks around.” ▶ 48:35 Is The Earth Warming Faster Than We Thought? | E… · 30 Sept
• BPBen PouladianWorsening If data center build-out stalls, jobs and investment will leave the US for countries like Australia, hurting the American economy. “The jobs will leave and those regions will get the benefit” ▶ 31:41 Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Me… · 30 Sept
• JCJeffrey ChristianWorsening He expects a US recession at some point between now and 2028, though less deep than previously forecast. “yes, we probably will have a recession. sometime between now and 2028” ▶ 3:57 Gold Is Getting Crushed—Is This The Start Of A B… · 29 Sept
• ABArnaud BertrandWorsening Bertrand endorses the view that US economic nationalism, aggression and disregard for international law will outlast Trump. “"economic nationalism, racial supremacism, moral poverty, naked aggression and wanton disregard for international law and norms" are all trends "which will outlast Trump."” Open the post Quite the momentous article by Navtej Sarna, Ind… · 28 Sept
• JBJim BiancoWorsening Bianco says the problem is government spending, which no one in Washington is willing to fix. “no one is interested in fixing the spending problem. They all want to spend like drunken sailors.” ▶ 36:57 How The Bond Market Can ‘Wreck’ Every Other Asse… · 28 Sept
• CBChris BerryWorsening Berry warns the West faces a structural tungsten supply gap and has much left to solve. “there is a structural gap in the West that looms large with supply for both defense and non-defense applications at risk” ▶ 19:01 Tungsten: The War Over the Metal of War · 28 Sept
• ETElizabeth ThomasWorsening She expects volatility and a drawdown into the midterm elections, with angry voters and bumpy headlines. “we're going to have volatility, probably a drawdown into the midterm elections” ▶ 22:04 U.S. Bonds Are Trading Like an Emerging Market w… · 28 Sept
• BJBrent JohnsonWorsening The US will eventually succumb to the pain of too much debt and higher rates, though the timing versus others is the key question. “i think the us is going it's just that i think who succumbs to that pain first is a really important question” ▶ 2:43 How the U.S. power move in Greenland impacts you… · 27 Sept
• MLMichael LebowitzWorsening The economy is K-shaped and he is a little concerned about the outlook for next year. “A little concerned, but it's a lack of a better word. It's a K-shaped economy.” ▶ 35:28 Market Starting To Crack Under High Bond Yields?… · 26 Sept
• DCDCPWorsening DCP says the lower half of the K-shaped economy is struggling and will get squeezed hard in the next six to nine months. “the lower half of the k are going to get squeezed hard in the next six to nine months” ▶ 8:46 The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup · 25 Sept
• FEFelixWorsening Felix sees a lot of tightening of financial conditions and economic damage already baked in from higher long yields and diesel. “there's a lot of tightening of financial conditions and the economy that's baked into the cake right now” ▶ 18:34 The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup · 25 Sept
• QUQuinnWorsening Quinn says the bond market is sniffing out more spending and an unsustainable fiscal position ahead of a split Congress. ▶ 13:47 The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup · 25 Sept
• Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )Worsening The US was insulated from the energy crunch, but that protection is now gone and the crunch has arrived. “the US has been fairly insulated from the energy crunch, but it was coming. Well, it is here.” Open the post If any of you have been listening to the Morning… · 19 Sept
• DLDaniel LacalleWorsening America is heading toward the same stagnation and debt problems as France unless it abandons big government. “France is a warning to America.” Open the post France is a warning to America. Big government.… · 19 Sept
• ETErik TownsendWorsening Townsend doubts the US will be allowed to build nuclear at Barakah prices, and warns of losing competitiveness to China. “Now it's time to find out whether they'll be allowed to build them for that price in USA. My guess is NO, sadly.” Open the post I think the below announcement is profoundly imp… · 7 Sept

Improving

• FCFiona CincottaImproving US data shows an economy holding up well and powering ahead. ▶ 3:24 Fed Hike Bets Lift Yields Yet Nasdaq Hits a Reco… · 26 Sept
• HAHugh AgroImproving Agro sees Barrick returning to the United States as a sign of the country's improving mining appeal. “Barrack itself exiting some of its more adventuresome activities elsewhere in the world to be back in the United States” ▶ 9:29 Revival Gold Has Two Paths to Unlock Major Value · 24 Sept
• JSJosef SchachterImproving The US continues to be an energy juggernaut in both production and consumption. “the u.s continues to be a an energy juggernaut both in production and also in its consumption” ▶ 26:36 Global Gas Shortage: This Is When Oil Price Doub… · 23 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerImproving The US economy is showing resilient growth that even $100 crude likely won't derail. “crude is probably not expensive enough to derail the US economy’s resilient growth” Open the post The energy complex is struggling through an echo… · 22 Sept
• EVEvanImproving Evan expects the US to secure a workable maritime protection deal with the Houthis, making nonintervention compatible with its interests. “American nonintervention then becomes compatible with private sector interests if shipping remains protected” Open the post Six days after my initial assessment, the Houthi… · 19 Sept
• GBGary BohmImproving America will not pause its A.I. buildout and will keep funding the race despite rising yields. “As America refuses to pause, both pipelines stay open.” Open the post China will not pause, so America cannot either. … · 9 Sept