Gold views split between a structural bull case and near-term pressure from yields and Fed hawkishness.
CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Gold $4,147 +0.1% Fed 4.00% Copper $6.67 +0.3% S&P 500 7,802 −0.2% Dollar 121.38 −0.3% Oct 2 closes of Oct 2–Oct 8
Discussion centred on gold’s competing macro and technical signals: Brad Langille argued that underinvestment in mining, central-bank buying and monetary debasement created an unusually strong setup for a gold bull market 9 , while market commentary highlighted pressure from rising Treasury yields and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve outlook 40 46 . Bitcoin received only one directly relevant mention, as Vincent Deluard said gold and bitcoin might benefit from AI-driven capital flows into Asian semiconductor economies 19 . The wider pool also covered AI investment, its possible bubble and inflation risks, energy demand, currencies, bonds and India; the followed Federal Reserve System and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. received no attention in this period 26 .
What happened
Brad Langille argued that underinvestment in mining, monetary debasement and central-bank buying create an unusually strong setup for a gold bull market.9
1 of 30
Michael Boutros said gold faces substantial near-term downside pressure from higher Treasury yields and would need to clear key technical levels to rally.40
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Robin Brooks said gold’s flat performance reflects the market retaining a hawkish Fed narrative despite reduced odds of an October hike.46
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“I think we're potentially at the start of a strong bull market in the metal price.”
Where they disagree Gold’s outlook
BL Structural bull case9
1 voice
MB Near-term downside from yields40
1 voice
Flat due to Fed hawkishness46
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
44 of 60 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Calls settled lately: 6 right. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 42 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 5 Full · since Jul 10 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-06, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 9 · up — The Fed has shifted from rate cuts to discussing rate hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · up — Brooks argues the Fed should hike 25bps at next week's meeting, since the price of not hiking is high. Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 13 · down — Trump says the US should have the lowest rate in the world, pushing the Fed toward aggressive easing. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Warren Pies · Sep 14 · up — Pies expects the Fed to hike this week and, unless it is a one-and-done move, to keep hiking through a cycle. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Gary Bohm · Sep 16 · down — Faber expects the Fed to resume money printing at some point in the near future. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 16 · down — Market expectations for four Fed hikes over the next year have gone too far, since underlying inflation is contained. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Anna Wong · Sep 17 · up — Warsh's political maneuvering protected the Fed's independence, a positive for the institution. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Luke Gromen · Sep 17 · up — Gromen expects Warsh's Fed to be willing to raise rates into an oil supply shock. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hawkish shift is poorly justified and hiking does not buy credibility, implying the hawkish turn is not warranted. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 17 · up — Standard Chartered now expects the Fed to hike 25bp in December 2026, versus its prior call of no change this year. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 21 · up — Timmer says the Fed is joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening policy. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 24 · up — Fed speakers support hiking rates on several occasions to bring inflation back to 2%. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley says the Fed cannot bail out markets now, and trying to would only make things worse. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 24 · down — CIFC argues the Fed is losing control of long-term yields, which are increasingly driven by forces outside its influence. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. Gary Bohm · Sep 25 · down — Schiff expects the Fed will be forced to intervene and will create more inflation. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 25 · up — Hammack says the Fed must keep a restrictive policy stance until clear progress is made on lowering inflation. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · up — The market prices a ~70% chance of another Fed hike in October after hawkish Fed speakers. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is expected to hike rates three times by the middle of 2027. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 29 · up — Barr says further policy adjustments are likely needed, implying more rate hikes ahead. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 30 · down — Goldman expects the next Fed hike to come in December rather than October, and sees a strong chance no further hikes are needed. Dario Perkins · Oct 1 · up — Perkins argues the Fed is not currently in a fiscal-dominance trap, implying it can still hit its inflation target. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Michael Boutros · Oct 1 · up — He expects at least one more rate hike before year-end, with markets pricing roughly 90% odds of a 25bp move in December. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Gary Bohm · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to step in with liquidity, with the question being where the Fed put is struck. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Clem Chambers · Oct 6 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold in October, with dovish repricing and officials pushing back against an October hike. Michael Boutros · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold interest rates this month, with futures pricing a 78% chance of no change. Michael Boutros · Oct 6 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. steph pomboy · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Walter Bloomberg · Oct 6 · down — Expects less pressure on the Fed to hike, with current pricing for up to four hikes over the next year too aggressive. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-10 to 2026-10-06, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · up — Brooks argues the Fed should hike 25bps at next week's meeting, since the price of not hiking is high. Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 13 · down — Trump says the US should have the lowest rate in the world, pushing the Fed toward aggressive easing. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Warren Pies · Sep 14 · up — Pies expects the Fed to hike this week and, unless it is a one-and-done move, to keep hiking through a cycle. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Gary Bohm · Sep 16 · down — Faber expects the Fed to resume money printing at some point in the near future. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 16 · down — Market expectations for four Fed hikes over the next year have gone too far, since underlying inflation is contained. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Anna Wong · Sep 17 · up — Warsh's political maneuvering protected the Fed's independence, a positive for the institution. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Luke Gromen · Sep 17 · up — Gromen expects Warsh's Fed to be willing to raise rates into an oil supply shock. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hawkish shift is poorly justified and hiking does not buy credibility, implying the hawkish turn is not warranted. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 17 · up — Standard Chartered now expects the Fed to hike 25bp in December 2026, versus its prior call of no change this year. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 21 · up — Timmer says the Fed is joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening policy. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 24 · up — Fed speakers support hiking rates on several occasions to bring inflation back to 2%. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley says the Fed cannot bail out markets now, and trying to would only make things worse. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 24 · down — CIFC argues the Fed is losing control of long-term yields, which are increasingly driven by forces outside its influence. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. Gary Bohm · Sep 25 · down — Schiff expects the Fed will be forced to intervene and will create more inflation. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 25 · up — Hammack says the Fed must keep a restrictive policy stance until clear progress is made on lowering inflation. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · up — The market prices a ~70% chance of another Fed hike in October after hawkish Fed speakers. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is expected to hike rates three times by the middle of 2027. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 29 · up — Barr says further policy adjustments are likely needed, implying more rate hikes ahead. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 30 · down — Goldman expects the next Fed hike to come in December rather than October, and sees a strong chance no further hikes are needed. Dario Perkins · Oct 1 · up — Perkins argues the Fed is not currently in a fiscal-dominance trap, implying it can still hit its inflation target. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Michael Boutros · Oct 1 · up — He expects at least one more rate hike before year-end, with markets pricing roughly 90% odds of a 25bp move in December. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Gary Bohm · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to step in with liquidity, with the question being where the Fed put is struck. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Clem Chambers · Oct 6 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold in October, with dovish repricing and officials pushing back against an October hike. Michael Boutros · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold interest rates this month, with futures pricing a 78% chance of no change. Michael Boutros · Oct 6 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. steph pomboy · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Walter Bloomberg · Oct 6 · down — Expects less pressure on the Fed to hike, with current pricing for up to four hikes over the next year too aggressive. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-10 to 2026-10-06, with 60 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 9 · up — The Fed has shifted from rate cuts to discussing rate hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · up — Brooks argues the Fed should hike 25bps at next week's meeting, since the price of not hiking is high. Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 13 · down — Trump says the US should have the lowest rate in the world, pushing the Fed toward aggressive easing. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Warren Pies · Sep 14 · up — Pies expects the Fed to hike this week and, unless it is a one-and-done move, to keep hiking through a cycle. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Gary Bohm · Sep 16 · down — Faber expects the Fed to resume money printing at some point in the near future. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 16 · down — Market expectations for four Fed hikes over the next year have gone too far, since underlying inflation is contained. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Anna Wong · Sep 17 · up — Warsh's political maneuvering protected the Fed's independence, a positive for the institution. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Luke Gromen · Sep 17 · up — Gromen expects Warsh's Fed to be willing to raise rates into an oil supply shock. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hawkish shift is poorly justified and hiking does not buy credibility, implying the hawkish turn is not warranted. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 17 · up — Standard Chartered now expects the Fed to hike 25bp in December 2026, versus its prior call of no change this year. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 21 · up — Timmer says the Fed is joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening policy. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 24 · up — Fed speakers support hiking rates on several occasions to bring inflation back to 2%. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley says the Fed cannot bail out markets now, and trying to would only make things worse. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 24 · down — CIFC argues the Fed is losing control of long-term yields, which are increasingly driven by forces outside its influence. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. Gary Bohm · Sep 25 · down — Schiff expects the Fed will be forced to intervene and will create more inflation. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 25 · up — Hammack says the Fed must keep a restrictive policy stance until clear progress is made on lowering inflation. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · up — The market prices a ~70% chance of another Fed hike in October after hawkish Fed speakers. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is expected to hike rates three times by the middle of 2027. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 29 · up — Barr says further policy adjustments are likely needed, implying more rate hikes ahead. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 30 · down — Goldman expects the next Fed hike to come in December rather than October, and sees a strong chance no further hikes are needed. Dario Perkins · Oct 1 · up — Perkins argues the Fed is not currently in a fiscal-dominance trap, implying it can still hit its inflation target. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Michael Boutros · Oct 1 · up — He expects at least one more rate hike before year-end, with markets pricing roughly 90% odds of a 25bp move in December. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Gary Bohm · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to step in with liquidity, with the question being where the Fed put is struck. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Clem Chambers · Oct 6 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold in October, with dovish repricing and officials pushing back against an October hike. Michael Boutros · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold interest rates this month, with futures pricing a 78% chance of no change. Michael Boutros · Oct 6 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. steph pomboy · Oct 6 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Walter Bloomberg · Oct 6 · down — Expects less pressure on the Fed to hike, with current pricing for up to four hikes over the next year too aggressive. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.21% to 4.79% since Jul 10. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 44 expect more hikes, 9 expect a pause or cuts, 7 expect a hold.
Their record ✓ 6 ✗ 0
✓ Bitcoin ≥ $85,000 : James Stanley. Called it on Oct 2. Bitcoin $85,489 on Oct 2.
✓ Fed hike on Sep 17 : Dario Perkins, Peter Berezin, Anna Wong, Weston Nakamura. Target 3.75% → 4.00%.
○ one final 25bp rate hike in December : Walter Bloomberg.
○ gold 27,000-29,000 by 2030 : Henrik Zeberg.
○ S&P 500 downside completes when large caps are sold off, likely in 2027 : Ted Oakley.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · no deadline James Stanley: “4100 test in the short term” COMEX gold futures with James Stanley's target ≤ $4,100 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≤ $4,100 James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. They said Sep 25: Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Distance $4,147 now, −1.1% to go. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline Patrick Ceresna: “S&P 500 could head to 8,000-8,200 on a break of 52-week highs” S&P 500 with Patrick Ceresna's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Technically the S&P 500 is a beautiful bull trend that could head to 8,000-8,200 if it breaks 52-week highs, though breadth is deteriorating. They said Sep 24: Technically the S&P 500 is a beautiful bull trend that could head to 8,000-8,200 if it breaks 52-week highs, though breadth is deteriorating. Distance 7,802 now, +2.5% to go. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Wed
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 2 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Fiona Cincotta Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 20 Dec Gold · Sun
The Kobeissi Letter : “gold above $5,000 in the coming months” (Sep 20). Gold is at $4,147, +20.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 20 (COMEX gold futures).
31 Dec Gold · Thu
Gold higher by Dec 31? 2 say yes, 0 say no. Jurrien Timmer Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (COMEX gold futures). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 2 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Michael Boutros Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 2 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec S&P 500 · Thu
Gareth Soloway : “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” (Oct 6). S&P 500 is at 7,802, +2.5% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (S&P 500).
1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,802, +28.2% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
The voices
BL Brad Langille
I don't think I've ever seen a better setup for the metal price — underinvestment in exploration and development, monetary debasement and central-bank buying point to the potential start of a strong gold bull market.9
MB Michael Boutros
Gold is facing headwinds from higher yields and remains vulnerable near term unless it closes above 42.30 with a break below 40.96 resuming downside.40
open: Fed +0.25% by Dec 31 Robin Brooks
Gold has been flatlining because the market hasn't let go of its hawkish Fed narrative even as pricing for an October hike has fallen.46
open: Fed on hold by Oct 31; Fed +0.50% 3 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Brent Johnson, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Jordi Visser, Max Wiethe
More from the desk Gold’s structural bull case Brad Langille claimed that insufficient exploration and development investment had failed to meet current metal demand, while monetary debasement and central-bank gold purchases strengthened the outlook. He said he had not seen a better setup for gold during his career and viewed a strong bull market as potentially beginning. Brad Langille claimed that insufficient exploration and development investment had failed to meet current metal demand, while monetary debasement and central-bank gold purchases strengthened the outlook. He said he had not seen a better setup for gold during his career and viewed a strong bull market as potentially beginning 9 .
Gold’s near-term headwinds Michael Boutros said higher yields were putting downside pressure on gold and identified multiple technical levels that would determine whether the market resumed lower or broke higher. Michael Boutros said higher yields were putting downside pressure on gold and identified multiple technical levels that would determine whether the market resumed lower or broke higher 40 .
AI, markets and alternative assets AI was described both as a source of potential productivity gains and as a possible financial and social risk. Michael Novogratz called it a major bubble while still urging investors to participate, whereas Ray Dalio characterised it as a classic bubble nearing a possible break. Vincent Deluard said AI-driven semiconductor capital flows could make gold and bitcoin unexpected beneficiaries. AI was described both as a source of potential productivity gains and as a possible financial and social risk 18 . Michael Novogratz called it a major bubble while still urging investors to participate, whereas Ray Dalio characterised it as a classic bubble nearing a possible break 22 27 . Vincent Deluard said AI-driven semiconductor capital flows could make gold and bitcoin unexpected beneficiaries 19 .
Rates, inflation and energy Fed minutes reportedly showed most officials expected another rate increase by year-end, with nearly all seeing upside inflation risks and some linking AI investment to excess demand. Other speakers warned that high yields could destabilise markets, while Clem Chambers argued that AI-led growth and rising energy demand would support higher energy and copper prices. Fed minutes reportedly showed most officials expected another rate increase by year-end, with nearly all seeing upside inflation risks and some linking AI investment to excess demand 26 . Other speakers warned that high yields could destabilise markets 20 25 , while Clem Chambers argued that AI-led growth and rising energy demand would support higher energy and copper prices 29 .
+2530 voices