AI’s boom remains intact, but debate centres on whether frontier-lab revenues can justify its debt-funded capex.
S&P 500 7,714 −1.2% Fed 4.00% Dollar 121.60 +0.1% closes of Oct 9–Oct 14
The period’s strongest discussion concerned AI investment, data-centre financing and whether the boom can generate sufficient revenue and shareholder value. Thomas Hayes and Cameron Dawson warned that frontier-lab cash burn and heavy capital spending create financing and valuation risks 11 30 , while Peter Berezin argued that constrained compute supply and profitability could sustain the capex cycle for another 12–24 months 26 . Gold discussion linked its weakness to high Treasury yields but noted that central-bank buying remained net positive 39 , while Bitcoin commentary was bullish, led by Michael Saylor’s forecast of a return above $100,000 18 19 .
What happened
Close observers warned investors have unrealistic expectations for the AI trade and new capital flows are fueling both the boom and concerns of a bust.31 33
1 of 29
Thomas Hayes argued frontier labs’ cash burn and bond issuance create implausible revenue assumptions and leave capex investors most exposed.11
1 of 29
Peter Berezin said data-center profitability, scarce compute and elevated input prices should sustain the AI capex boom for another 12–24 months.26
1 of 29
Show 1 more Show fewer
Cameron Dawson highlighted frontier labs’ cash burn and reliance on capital markets, warning that tighter financial conditions would challenge their fundraising.30
1 of 29
“the AI CapEx boom, I think, probably continues for another 12 to 24 months”
Where they disagree Whether AI valuations and capital spending are approaching a bust
TH CD AI capex risks a bust11 30
2 voices
PB Capex boom can persist 12–24m26
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
37 of 42 voices lean bullish on gold. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 19 calls open.
Where they stand · gold
i
Reading the chart ✕ COMEX gold futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 14 Full · since Jul 16 COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions $4,100 $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions $4,100 $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Oct 1 Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. COMEX gold futures, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-14, with 42 desk voices' positions $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. COMEX gold futures rose from $3,992 to $4,118 since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 37 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 range-bound.
Their record
○ UK deficit to narrow to -3.1% of GDP next year : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ Japan's fiscal deficit to more than triple to -2.5% of GDP : The Kobeissi Letter.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,118 now, +2.3% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,714 now, +3.7% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ 28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,714, +29.6% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
6 Oct Bitcoin · Wed 2027
Gareth Soloway : “Bitcoin to 100,000 within a year” (Oct 6). Bitcoin is at $81,763, +22.3% to go.Settles on the close of Oct 6 (Bitcoin).
29 Mar Gold · Wed 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Gold over $5,000 within 18 months” (Sep 29). Gold is at $4,118, +21.4% to go.Settles on the close of Mar 29 (COMEX gold futures).
2 Apr Fed · Sun 2028
Dario Perkins : “Fed hikes too much within 18 months” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Apr 2 (FRED DFEDTARU).
29 Sep Bitcoin · Fri 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Bitcoin to $200k-$300k in the next two years” (Sep 29). Bitcoin is at $81,763, +144.6% to go.Settles on the close of Sep 29 (Bitcoin).
The voices
TH Thomas Hayes
Frontier labs’ bond financing depends on implausibly high future cash generation and historically capex investors often lose out to productivity adopters.11
PB Peter Berezin
Data centers remain profitable and constrained compute plus elevated input prices should keep the AI capex cycle going for another 12–24 months, though stocks may peak earlier.26
CD Cameron Dawson
Frontier labs are burning cash and reliant on capital markets so a tightening of financial conditions would raise equity volatility and derail IPOs and funding.30
Bloomberg
Gold’s two-day decline followed a Fed official’s comment but easing expectations for 2027 tightening have improved sentiment toward the metal.8
TH Trevor Hall
Gold is pressured by multi-decade high 10-year Treasury yields and a stronger dollar even as overall central-bank demand remains net positive.39
Gary Bohm
A 25% pullback in gold is a normal bull-market correction and Chinese and ETF buying could support the next leg higher.42
open: Gold ≥ $5,000 3 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Brent Johnson, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Jordi Visser, Max Wiethe
More from the desk AI financing and valuation risk Hayes argued that roughly half a trillion dollars of bonds depend on OpenAI and Anthropic meeting aggressive income projections, and that the AI trade may continue even as investors separate eventual winners from losers. Dawson similarly highlighted frontier labs’ cash burn, dependence on capital markets and the risk that tighter financial conditions would weaken IPOs and equity returns. Hayes argued that roughly half a trillion dollars of bonds depend on OpenAI and Anthropic meeting aggressive income projections, and that the AI trade may continue even as investors separate eventual winners from losers 11 . Dawson similarly highlighted frontier labs’ cash burn, dependence on capital markets and the risk that tighter financial conditions would weaken IPOs and equity returns 30 .
AI capex and infrastructure constraints Berezin said data centres remained highly profitable because compute was scarce, supporting another 12–24 months of AI capital expenditure, although stocks could peak before capex does. Bloomberg also reported that energy and skilled labour were constraining data-centre construction, while Brookfield’s Connor Teskey expected compute and energy infrastructure demand to exceed supply beyond the end of the decade. Berezin said data centres remained highly profitable because compute was scarce, supporting another 12–24 months of AI capital expenditure, although stocks could peak before capex does 26 . Bloomberg also reported that energy and skilled labour were constraining data-centre construction, while Brookfield’s Connor Teskey expected compute and energy infrastructure demand to exceed supply beyond the end of the decade 25 32 .
Gold and monetary policy Gold was described as holding a two-day decline after a Federal Reserve signal that one more hike might be needed this year, with the prospect of no further tightening in 2027 improving sentiment. Gold was described as holding a two-day decline after a Federal Reserve signal that one more hike might be needed this year, with the prospect of no further tightening in 2027 improving sentiment 8 .
Bitcoin and crypto-market positioning Michael Saylor said Bitcoin’s bear market was over and forecast a move back above $100,000, with Strategy planning further purchases and securities issuance. CryptoQuant’s reported whale accumulation was characterised as an early bull phase, while a separate discussion examined regulatory and settlement questions around pre-IPO perpetual contracts},{ Michael Saylor said Bitcoin’s bear market was over and forecast a move back above $100,000, with Strategy planning further purchases and securities issuance 18 19 . CryptoQuant’s reported whale accumulation was characterised as an early bull phase, while a separate discussion examined regulatory and settlement questions around pre-IPO perpetual contracts 20 49 },{
+2429 voices