AI investment is driving a major capital cycle, but sources disagreed over whether the resulting market exposure is still attractive or dangerously stretched.
Gold $4,210 +0.5% S&P 500 7,807 −0.1% Dollar 121.38 −0.3% Oct 2 CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Fed 4.00% Copper $6.76 +0.2% closes of Oct 2–Oct 13
The period’s material centred on AI-led capital spending, its financing burden and the knock-on effects for technology, metals, energy and markets. Speakers and sources also discussed inflation, rates, currencies and gold: Tavi Costa favoured gradual rotation toward emerging markets and resources 15 , while other commentary highlighted stretched equity pricing and strong gold demand 13 31 . India was portrayed both as a fast-growing, increasingly liquid market 2 10 and as exposed to higher rates, rupee weakness and outflows 7 43 . Bitcoin had one item in the followed-topic list but received no substantive attention in the retrieved evidence.
What happened
Goldman Sachs upgraded equities and bonds to overweight, citing resilient earnings, improved valuations, limited recession risk and easing inflation.35 41
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The Kobeissi Letter warned the S&P 500's earnings yield is below the 10-year Treasury yield, implying a negative equity risk premium and stretched valuations.13
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Blackstone's Jon Gray said liquidity in the Indian market is probably second only to the United States and that growth has accelerated.2
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Bloomberg reported India faces higher rates, a weak rupee, foreign-investor outflows and protests that are testing its growth ambitions and noted the rupee has weakened to record lows.7 43
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“Demand for gold is extremely strong.”
Where they disagree Whether current equity valuations and risk appetite are justified
Bullish on equities35 41
1 voice
Equities stretched vs bonds13
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
37 of 42 voices lean bullish on gold. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 19 calls open.
Where they stand · gold
i
Reading the chart ✕ COMEX gold futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 13 Full · since Jul 15 COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Oct 1 Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. COMEX gold futures, 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-13, with 42 desk voices' positions $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Brent Johnson · Sep 13 · up — Gold is probably going a lot higher, and gold and the dollar can rise together. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. COMEX gold futures rose from $4,052 to $4,210 since Jul 15. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 37 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 range-bound.
Their record
○ S&P 500 heading for another year of strong gains : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ offshore drilling growth has another five to ten years to run : Charles Lemonides.
○ Argentina inflation around 20% next year : Lucio Arrocha.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,210 now, +0.1% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,807 now, +2.5% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Tomorrow
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Paul Cronin : “no Fed rate hike this year” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,807, +28.1% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
6 Oct Bitcoin · Wed 2027
Gareth Soloway : “Bitcoin to 100,000 within a year” (Oct 6). Bitcoin is at $83,536, +19.7% to go.Settles on the close of Oct 6 (Bitcoin).
29 Mar Gold · Wed 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Gold over $5,000 within 18 months” (Sep 29). Gold is at $4,210, +18.8% to go.Settles on the close of Mar 29 (COMEX gold futures).
2 Apr Fed · Sun 2028
Dario Perkins : “Fed hikes too much within 18 months” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Apr 2 (FRED DFEDTARU).
The voices
Walter Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs turned bullish on both stocks and bonds, upgrading equities to overweight and citing strong earnings, improved valuations and easing inflation supporting markets.35 41
The Kobeissi Letter
We are seeing a historic shift where the S&P 500's earnings yield minus the 10Y yield is negative, suggesting Treasuries now offer higher yield than stocks and indicating stretched equity valuations.13
Bloomberg
Bloomberg relayed Jon Gray's view that Indian market liquidity is probably second only to the US and growth has accelerated, while also reporting risks from higher rates, a weak rupee, outflows and protests testing India's ambitions.2 7 43
TC Tavi Costa
Tavi Costa said capital is rotating gradually toward emerging markets and resources while US assets remain the largest allocation, leaving room for these trends to run.15
4 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Taggart, Brent Johnson, GoldRepublic Global, Jordi Visser
More from the desk AI capital spending and financing AI investment was described as generating unusually large funding needs: Rishi Sunak said technology companies could become larger net issuers of long-term debt than the US government in 2027. Data-centre expansion is encountering both financing and infrastructure constraints, with AirTrunk delaying an IPO because of rates and volatility and power identified as another obstacle. AI investment was described as generating unusually large funding needs: Rishi Sunak said technology companies could become larger net issuers of long-term debt than the US government in 2027 6 . Data-centre expansion is encountering both financing and infrastructure constraints, with AirTrunk delaying an IPO because of rates and volatility 4 and power identified as another obstacle 42 .
Market valuation, earnings and rates The bullish case was that strong earnings, limited recession risk, easing inflation and potentially more accommodative policy could support both equities and bonds, according to Goldman Sachs as reported by Walter Bloomberg. The counterpoint was that the S&P 500’s equity-risk premium was heading for a third consecutive negative year, making Treasuries more attractive on yield and signalling stretched valuations. The bullish case was that strong earnings, limited recession risk, easing inflation and potentially more accommodative policy could support both equities and bonds, according to Goldman Sachs as reported by Walter Bloomberg 35 41 . The counterpoint was that the S&P 500’s equity-risk premium was heading for a third consecutive negative year, making Treasuries more attractive on yield and signalling stretched valuations 13 .
Gold, resources and inflation hedging Gold demand was characterised as exceptionally strong, with record quarterly inflows into physical gold-backed ETFs and holdings reaching a record. Gold nevertheless held a loss as Middle East conflict raised the risk of energy disruptions, persistent inflation and further rate hikes; Costa favoured gold, silver, copper and zinc among the most attractive investments he saw. Gold demand was characterised as exceptionally strong, with record quarterly inflows into physical gold-backed ETFs and holdings reaching a record 31 . Gold nevertheless held a loss as Middle East conflict raised the risk of energy disruptions, persistent inflation and further rate hikes 12 ; Costa favoured gold, silver, copper and zinc among the most attractive investments he saw 15 .
India, emerging markets and currencies Jon Gray described Indian-market liquidity as probably second only to the United States and pointed to accelerated growth, while an IMF outlook cited in the pool raised India’s growth forecast and linked it to AI and data-centre investment. Other coverage stressed the rupee’s repeated weakening, tariffs, higher rates and foreign outflows as constraints on India’s ambitions. Jon Gray described Indian-market liquidity as probably second only to the United States and pointed to accelerated growth 2 , while an IMF outlook cited in the pool raised India’s growth forecast and linked it to AI and data-centre investment 10 . Other coverage stressed the rupee’s repeated weakening, tariffs, higher rates and foreign outflows as constraints on India’s ambitions 7 43 .
CL
+2328 voices