Gold remained supported by central-bank demand and softer rate expectations, while Bitcoin’s defensive credentials were sharply disputed.
Fed 4.00% Gold $4,144 −1.0% Bitcoin $83,691 −2.2% CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Dollar 121.38 −0.3% S&P 500 7,819 +0.6% 52w high closes of Oct 2–Oct 7
Gold discussions focused on a tug of war between support from softer Fed expectations, lower oil prices and central-bank buying, and pressure from elevated yields and technical resistance 23 . Bitcoin was described both as an increasingly adopted alternative outside Fed control 14 and as a dollar-linked speculative asset that lacks defensive value unless it correlates with gold 29 . Broader market coverage also debated sticky inflation, higher rates, Treasury demand and whether the AI investment boom can continue without sufficient real-economy demand 14 30 41 . The followed topics Artificial Intelligence, OpenAI, Anthropic, IPO, tariffs, energy, copper, data centers, Elon Musk, S&P 500, inflation, dollar, gold, Bitcoin, US, UK, India, Japan, Federal Reserve System, U.S. Treasury, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and Meta Platforms, Inc. received attention; Bloomberg, AI, UK, India, Japan, Federal Reserve System, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and Meta Platforms, Inc. were discussed only in passing in this selected pool, while Artificial Intelligence received no distinct additional attention beyond AI-related items 4 9 10 17 20 37 .
What happened
Gold is trading in a tug of war between support from dovish Fed repricing, lower oil and central-bank buying, and pressure from elevated yields and technical resistance.23
1 of 24
Todd Horwitz warned inflation is far higher than official readings and predicted yields could reach about 6%, arguing rates must rise.14
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Charles Tan said the recent Treasury selloff looks overdone, driven by forced selling and competition for capital from AI investment and government borrowing, and that markets price too many hikes.30
0 of 24
Show 2 more Show fewer
Scott Bessent argued core inflation remains quiescent and the energy shock should not feed into core inflation.20
1 of 24
Ray Dalio warned AI is a 'classic bubble' nearing a bursting point as rates rise, while Bob Elliott said AI capex continues to accelerate and Emma Norchet said OpenAI and Anthropic can both succeed.7 17 41
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“Gold is stuck in a tug of war.”
FR
Fawad Razaqzada StoneX ▶ 0:00
Where they disagree Inflation and the path of interest rates
TH Inflation materially higher14
1 voice
Selloff overdone; hikes priced too much30
Charles Tan
SB Core inflation subdued20
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
37 of 43 voices lean bullish on gold. Calls settled lately: 6 right. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 40 calls open.
Where they stand · gold
i
Reading the chart ✕ COMEX gold futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 5 Full · since Jul 9 COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-07, where the desk's voices took positions $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 10 · up — Gromen implies gold rises sharply as the dollar is devalued against it. ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq · Sep 10 · down — Gold doesn't trade great here. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Felix is positioned in the debasement trade (gold and metals) and expects it to do well over the next year or so, willing to ride short-term downside. Brent Johnson · Sep 13 · up — Gold is probably going a lot higher, and gold and the dollar can rise together. Freddie Brick · Sep 13 · mixed — Brick says he has no strong view on where metal prices, including gold, will be in three, six or 12 months. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. jeroen blokland · Sep 15 · up — Blokland treats physical gold as a scarce asset that belongs in every robust portfolio, implying a constructive view on it. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Gary Bohm · Sep 16 · up — Faber says gold is where he would put most of his money for the long haul. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · up — Brooks expects gold to keep rising as the Fed's unconvincing hawkish shift fades. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Luke Gromen · Sep 21 · up — Gromen cites gold's 9% gain since Bloomberg's bearish call as evidence the debasement trade is intact. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 21 · up — Bernstein remains firmly bullish on gold, expecting it to keep rising despite higher real yields, with a 2030 target of $5,600/oz. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Gold is holding a multi-month bullish structure and a sustained hold above 4,240 with a reversal above 4,400 would raise confidence in bullish forecasts toward 4,520–5,000. Gary Bohm · Sep 25 · up — Schiff argues rising bond yields are bullish for gold, not bearish, and that all roads lead to inflation, making the setup the most bullish script imaginable. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Mike Clark · Sep 25 · up — Lucky Shot drilling has outlined a new vein of about 50,000 ounces of gold, with a 400,000-500,000 ounce resource targeted next year. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Eugene Marinelli · Sep 28 · up — Marinelli is drawn to gold as a scarce asset amid money printing and inflation. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Charles Funk · Sep 29 · up — Funk treats $4,000 gold as the settled new normal rather than a milestone. Christina McCarthy · Sep 29 · up — McCarthy says the gold market is in a strong bull environment, making lower-grade bulk tonnage material economic. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Gary Bohm · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to start working again once a risk-asset correction is met with more liquidity. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 2 · up — Continues to like gold, implying he expects it to do well from here. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Razan Hilal · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold's long-term bullish outlook to remain intact, with a surge back toward 5,000 and possibly a record high. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Lyn Alden · Oct 3 · up — Expects stocks to keep underperforming gold over the multi-year stretch, a hallmark of fiscal dominance. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to recover in Q4, with a sustained break above $4,400 opening the way to $4,500, then $4,700 and $5,000. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 6 · steady — Expects gold to stay range-bound for now, with consolidation the near-term outcome until 4,235-4,285 is reclaimed or 4,100 breaks. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Danny Moses · Oct 7 · up — Sees gold as a hedge against monetary debasement that rises as dollars are printed. COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-10 to 2026-10-07, where the desk's voices took positions $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Sep 15 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 10 · up — Gromen implies gold rises sharply as the dollar is devalued against it. ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq · Sep 10 · down — Gold doesn't trade great here. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Felix is positioned in the debasement trade (gold and metals) and expects it to do well over the next year or so, willing to ride short-term downside. Brent Johnson · Sep 13 · up — Gold is probably going a lot higher, and gold and the dollar can rise together. Freddie Brick · Sep 13 · mixed — Brick says he has no strong view on where metal prices, including gold, will be in three, six or 12 months. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. jeroen blokland · Sep 15 · up — Blokland treats physical gold as a scarce asset that belongs in every robust portfolio, implying a constructive view on it. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Gary Bohm · Sep 16 · up — Faber says gold is where he would put most of his money for the long haul. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · up — Brooks expects gold to keep rising as the Fed's unconvincing hawkish shift fades. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Luke Gromen · Sep 21 · up — Gromen cites gold's 9% gain since Bloomberg's bearish call as evidence the debasement trade is intact. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 21 · up — Bernstein remains firmly bullish on gold, expecting it to keep rising despite higher real yields, with a 2030 target of $5,600/oz. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Gold is holding a multi-month bullish structure and a sustained hold above 4,240 with a reversal above 4,400 would raise confidence in bullish forecasts toward 4,520–5,000. Gary Bohm · Sep 25 · up — Schiff argues rising bond yields are bullish for gold, not bearish, and that all roads lead to inflation, making the setup the most bullish script imaginable. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Mike Clark · Sep 25 · up — Lucky Shot drilling has outlined a new vein of about 50,000 ounces of gold, with a 400,000-500,000 ounce resource targeted next year. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Eugene Marinelli · Sep 28 · up — Marinelli is drawn to gold as a scarce asset amid money printing and inflation. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Charles Funk · Sep 29 · up — Funk treats $4,000 gold as the settled new normal rather than a milestone. Christina McCarthy · Sep 29 · up — McCarthy says the gold market is in a strong bull environment, making lower-grade bulk tonnage material economic. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Gary Bohm · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to start working again once a risk-asset correction is met with more liquidity. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 2 · up — Continues to like gold, implying he expects it to do well from here. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Razan Hilal · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold's long-term bullish outlook to remain intact, with a surge back toward 5,000 and possibly a record high. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Lyn Alden · Oct 3 · up — Expects stocks to keep underperforming gold over the multi-year stretch, a hallmark of fiscal dominance. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to recover in Q4, with a sustained break above $4,400 opening the way to $4,500, then $4,700 and $5,000. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 6 · steady — Expects gold to stay range-bound for now, with consolidation the near-term outcome until 4,235-4,285 is reclaimed or 4,100 breaks. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Danny Moses · Oct 7 · up — Sees gold as a hedge against monetary debasement that rises as dollars are printed. COMEX gold futures, 2026-07-09 to 2026-10-07, with 43 desk voices' positions $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Gary Bohm · Sep 7 · up — Rogers owns gold, a bullish position on the metal. Jeffrey Currie ++ · Sep 7 · up — Currie argues for owning gold over fiat currencies in the current environment, part of a generational hard-asset cycle still in its early innings. Luke Gromen · Sep 10 · up — Gromen implies gold rises sharply as the dollar is devalued against it. ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq · Sep 10 · down — Gold doesn't trade great here. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Felix is positioned in the debasement trade (gold and metals) and expects it to do well over the next year or so, willing to ride short-term downside. Brent Johnson · Sep 13 · up — Gold is probably going a lot higher, and gold and the dollar can rise together. Freddie Brick · Sep 13 · mixed — Brick says he has no strong view on where metal prices, including gold, will be in three, six or 12 months. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. jeroen blokland · Sep 15 · up — Blokland treats physical gold as a scarce asset that belongs in every robust portfolio, implying a constructive view on it. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Gary Bohm · Sep 16 · up — Faber says gold is where he would put most of his money for the long haul. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Robin Brooks · Sep 17 · up — Brooks expects gold to keep rising as the Fed's unconvincing hawkish shift fades. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Luke Gromen · Sep 21 · up — Gromen cites gold's 9% gain since Bloomberg's bearish call as evidence the debasement trade is intact. Walter Bloomberg · Sep 21 · up — Bernstein remains firmly bullish on gold, expecting it to keep rising despite higher real yields, with a 2030 target of $5,600/oz. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Gold is holding a multi-month bullish structure and a sustained hold above 4,240 with a reversal above 4,400 would raise confidence in bullish forecasts toward 4,520–5,000. Gary Bohm · Sep 25 · up — Schiff argues rising bond yields are bullish for gold, not bearish, and that all roads lead to inflation, making the setup the most bullish script imaginable. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Mike Clark · Sep 25 · up — Lucky Shot drilling has outlined a new vein of about 50,000 ounces of gold, with a 400,000-500,000 ounce resource targeted next year. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Eugene Marinelli · Sep 28 · up — Marinelli is drawn to gold as a scarce asset amid money printing and inflation. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Charles Funk · Sep 29 · up — Funk treats $4,000 gold as the settled new normal rather than a milestone. Christina McCarthy · Sep 29 · up — McCarthy says the gold market is in a strong bull environment, making lower-grade bulk tonnage material economic. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Gary Bohm · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to start working again once a risk-asset correction is met with more liquidity. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Jurrien Timmer · Oct 2 · up — Continues to like gold, implying he expects it to do well from here. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Razan Hilal · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold's long-term bullish outlook to remain intact, with a surge back toward 5,000 and possibly a record high. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Lyn Alden · Oct 3 · up — Expects stocks to keep underperforming gold over the multi-year stretch, a hallmark of fiscal dominance. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to recover in Q4, with a sustained break above $4,400 opening the way to $4,500, then $4,700 and $5,000. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 6 · steady — Expects gold to stay range-bound for now, with consolidation the near-term outcome until 4,235-4,285 is reclaimed or 4,100 breaks. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Danny Moses · Oct 7 · up — Sees gold as a hedge against monetary debasement that rises as dollars are printed. COMEX gold futures rose from $4,141 to $4,144 since Jul 9. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 37 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 range-bound, 1 mixed.
Their record ✓ 6 ✗ 0
✓ Bitcoin ≥ $85,000 : James Stanley. Called it on Oct 2. Bitcoin $85,489 on Oct 2.
✓ Fed hike on Sep 17 : Dario Perkins, Peter Berezin, Anna Wong, Weston Nakamura. Target 3.75% → 4.00%.
○ one final 25bp rate hike in December : Walter Bloomberg.
○ gold 27,000-29,000 by 2030 : Henrik Zeberg.
○ S&P 500 downside completes when large caps are sold off, likely in 2027 : Ted Oakley.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · no deadline James Stanley: “4100 test in the short term” COMEX gold futures with James Stanley's target ≤ $4,100 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≤ $4,100 James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. They said Sep 25: Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Distance $4,144 now, −1.1% to go. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline Patrick Ceresna: “S&P 500 could head to 8,000-8,200 on a break of 52-week highs” S&P 500 with Patrick Ceresna's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Patrick Ceresna · Sep 24 · up — Technically the S&P 500 is a beautiful bull trend that could head to 8,000-8,200 if it breaks 52-week highs, though breadth is deteriorating. They said Sep 24: Technically the S&P 500 is a beautiful bull trend that could head to 8,000-8,200 if it breaks 52-week highs, though breadth is deteriorating. Distance 7,819 now, +2.3% to go. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Wed
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 2 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Fiona Cincotta Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 20 Dec Gold · Sun
The Kobeissi Letter : “gold above $5,000 in the coming months” (Sep 20). Gold is at $4,144, +20.6% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 20 (COMEX gold futures).
31 Dec Gold · Thu
Gold higher by Dec 31? 2 say yes, 0 say no. Jurrien Timmer Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (COMEX gold futures). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 2 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Michael Boutros Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 2 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 31 Dec S&P 500 · Thu
Gareth Soloway : “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” (Oct 6). S&P 500 is at 7,819, +2.3% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (S&P 500).
1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,819, +27.9% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
The voices
FR Fawad Razaqzada
Gold is stuck in a tug of war: dovish Fed repricing and lower oil support it, while elevated yields and technical resistance constrain gains alongside continued central bank buying.23
open: Gold ≥ $4,500 TH Todd Horwitz
Inflation is much higher than official readings and interest rates need to rise, with a real shot at six percent yields this year.14
open: Fed +0.25% by Dec 31 SB Scott Bessent
Core inflation has been very quiescent and the recent energy shock should not feed through into core inflation.20
Bob Elliott
AI-related capex keeps chugging in line with prior quarters, with the key question whether the real economy can absorb the buildout.41
CW Chris Whalen
Bitcoin has been largely co-opted by Wall Street and, unless it correlates positively with gold, it lacks defensive value and is now largely speculative.29
3 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Brent Johnson, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Jordi Visser, Max Wiethe
More from the desk Gold and rates Fawad Razaqzada said gold was caught between support from a dovish repricing of Fed expectations, lower oil and central-bank purchases, and resistance from high bond yields and technical levels. Todd Horwitz argued that markets had already priced in higher rates and that persistent inflation could still push gold higher, despite a stronger dollar. Fawad Razaqzada said gold was caught between support from a dovish repricing of Fed expectations, lower oil and central-bank purchases, and resistance from high bond yields and technical levels 23 . Todd Horwitz argued that markets had already priced in higher rates and that persistent inflation could still push gold higher, despite a stronger dollar 14 .
Bitcoin’s role Todd Horwitz linked Bitcoin’s rise to broader adoption and its independence from the Federal Reserve, while saying it was becoming more widely accepted. Chris Whalen disagreed, arguing that Bitcoin had been co-opted by Wall Street and was primarily a speculative instrument rather than a hedge or safe haven. Todd Horwitz linked Bitcoin’s rise to broader adoption and its independence from the Federal Reserve, while saying it was becoming more widely accepted 14 . Chris Whalen disagreed, arguing that Bitcoin had been co-opted by Wall Street and was primarily a speculative instrument rather than a hedge or safe haven 29 .
Inflation, bonds and monetary policy Todd Horwitz forecast substantially higher rates and claimed inflation was closer to 10% than the reported 3.7%, while Gareth Soloway remained doubtful that Kevin Warsh would sustain a hawkish stance. Charles Tan took the opposite market view on Treasuries, saying the selloff was overdone and that pricing for as many as four hikes was too aggressive. Todd Horwitz forecast substantially higher rates and claimed inflation was closer to 10% than the reported 3.7%, while Gareth Soloway remained doubtful that Kevin Warsh would sustain a hawkish stance 14 20 . Charles Tan took the opposite market view on Treasuries, saying the selloff was overdone and that pricing for as many as four hikes was too aggressive 30 .
AI boom and market concentration The sources described continuing AI capex, surging data-centre power demand and intense demand for computing infrastructure. Countervailing claims were that AI could be a classic bubble, that some corporate tax treatment was questionable, and that the buildout might outrun real-economy demand. The sources described continuing AI capex, surging data-centre power demand and intense demand for computing infrastructure 13 25 41 . Countervailing claims were that AI could be a classic bubble, that some corporate tax treatment was questionable, and that the buildout might outrun real-economy demand 7 9 41 .
Trade, energy and commodities Tariff front-running was linked to sharply higher Canadian exports to the US and a large US trade deficit. Copper was described as constructive but more balanced, with tight concentrate supply offset by easing Chinese spot demand and inventories building. Tariff front-running was linked to sharply higher Canadian exports to the US and a large US trade deficit 2 27 . Copper was described as constructive but more balanced, with tight concentrate supply offset by easing Chinese spot demand and inventories building 22 .
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