AI optimism remained powerful but contested, while gold advocates made the strongest case for monetary hedges amid inflation and currency stress.
CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts Sep Fed 4.00% Gold $4,179 +1.7% S&P 500 7,719 −1.1% Dollar 121.60 +0.1% Oct 9 Bitcoin $81,092 −0.6% closes of Oct 9–Oct 15
Discussion centred on AI’s market impact, inflation and rates, gold’s monetary role, and dollar diversification. AI was presented both as a powerful earnings and infrastructure driver 15 and as a likely bubble vulnerable to equity supply and slowing spending 32 34 . Hot inflation was linked to stronger dollar and higher-rate expectations 20 21 , while gold advocates argued that institutional under-allocation and monetary-system stress could support much higher prices 19 22 . Bitcoin received limited attention, mainly as an asset class becoming more established but still needing lower volatility and protection from technological threats 35 .
What happened
Investment chiefs were sharply divided on the AI build-out with some calling it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and others warning the data-center boom could turn ugly.4
0 of 33
Cameron Dawson argued demand for AI infrastructure remains very strong but flagged next year’s capex growth as the key risk to sustaining margins and earnings upside.15
1 of 33
Ben Inker warned AI is likely a bubble because broad AI adoption requires it to be cheap, which undercuts sustained exceptional profitability and rising equity supply and heavy data-center investment could precipitate a collapse.32 34
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Alasdair Macleod argued fiat currencies are failing, predicting severe financial disruption and much higher commodity prices measured in currencies, implying a large upside for gold.22
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Michael Howell said the world may be moving toward two monetary blocs — a dollar-based system and a Chinese system using gold as notional backing — while the dollar remains the cleanest paper currency.27
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“The real bull case for gold is that it is fully reincorporated in the financial system”
Where they disagree Whether the AI build-out is durable or a bubble
CD AI build-out durable15
1 voice
BI AI is likely a bubble32 34
1 voice
Divide among investment chiefs4
Investment chiefs at the alternative-investment gathering
The desk How the desk is calling it
39 of 44 voices lean bullish on gold. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 19 calls open.
Where they stand · gold
i
Reading the chart ✕ COMEX gold futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 15 Full · since Jul 17 COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions $4,100 $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Oct 1 Oct 15 Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall. Gary Bohm · Oct 14 · up — Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be. Michael Howell · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again. COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-20 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions $4,100 $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Oct 1 Oct 15 Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall. Gary Bohm · Oct 14 · up — Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be. Michael Howell · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again. COMEX gold futures, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-15, with 44 desk voices' positions $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold. Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher. jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly. Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day. Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall. Gary Bohm · Oct 14 · up — Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be. Michael Howell · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again. COMEX gold futures rose from $4,019 to $4,179 since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 39 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 range-bound.
Their record
○ monetary inflation running at 7%-8% per annum : Michael Howell.
○ AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months : Ben Inker.
○ US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027 : The Kobeissi Letter.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Jun 30 Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year” COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212 $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ $4,212 Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. They said Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Distance $4,179 now, +0.8% to go by Jun 30, 2027. source ↗ ○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,719 now, +3.6% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ 28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Laks Ganapathi Paul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,719, +29.6% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
6 Oct Bitcoin · Wed 2027
Gareth Soloway : “Bitcoin to 100,000 within a year” (Oct 6). Bitcoin is at $81,092, +23.3% to go.Settles on the close of Oct 6 (Bitcoin).
29 Mar Gold · Wed 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Gold over $5,000 within 18 months” (Sep 29). Gold is at $4,179, +19.6% to go.Settles on the close of Mar 29 (COMEX gold futures).
2 Apr Fed · Sun 2028
Dario Perkins : “Fed hikes too much within 18 months” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Apr 2 (FRED DFEDTARU).
29 Sep Bitcoin · Fri 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Bitcoin to $200k-$300k in the next two years” (Sep 29). Bitcoin is at $81,092, +146.6% to go.Settles on the close of Sep 29 (Bitcoin).
The voices
CD Cameron Dawson
Demand for AI infrastructure remains very strong today, but next year’s capex growth forecast will determine whether margins and the AI-led earnings upswing can be sustained.15
BI Ben Inker
Broad AI adoption must be cheap, which undermines durable exceptional profitability, and rising equity supply plus heavy investment in data centres make this likely to prove a bubble.32 34
AM Alasdair Macleod
Fiat currencies are failing to preserve value, making severe financial disruption likely and implying commodities and gold could rise manyfold measured in depreciating currencies.22
MH Michael Howell
We appear to be forming two monetary systems — a dollar-based bloc using US Treasuries and a Chinese system that will use gold as notional backing — with the dollar still the cleanest paper currency.27
SH Steve H. Hanke
Inflation should be understood primarily as a monetary phenomenon rather than through selective interpretation of particular price indices.7
5 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Brent Johnson, Jordi Visser, Josh Linville
More from the desk AI boom versus bubble risk Cameron Dawson said current AI demand remained strong, but the sustainability of infrastructure stocks depended heavily on whether projected hyperscaler capital-expenditure growth held up. Ben Inker argued that broad AI adoption requires low prices, which conflicts with exceptional profitability, and called data-centre investment particularly risky. Investment chiefs were explicitly divided between describing the build-out as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and warning that the data-centre boom could turn ugly. Cameron Dawson said current AI demand remained strong, but the sustainability of infrastructure stocks depended heavily on whether projected hyperscaler capital-expenditure growth held up 15 . Ben Inker argued that broad AI adoption requires low prices, which conflicts with exceptional profitability, and called data-centre investment particularly risky 32 34 . Investment chiefs were explicitly divided between describing the build-out as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and warning that the data-centre boom could turn ugly 4 .
Inflation, rates and the dollar Hot US inflation increased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and supported the dollar. Hot US inflation increased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and supported the dollar 20 21 .
Gold and monetary-system stress Shayne McGuire argued that gold’s bull case rests on institutional investors reallocating from equities and bonds, given their negligible current exposure. Alasdair Macleod claimed fiat-currency depreciation, debt stress and paper-market dynamics could produce very large gold gains, while Michael Howell described gold as a potential notional backing for an evolving Chinese monetary system. Shayne McGuire argued that gold’s bull case rests on institutional investors reallocating from equities and bonds, given their negligible current exposure 19 . Alasdair Macleod claimed fiat-currency depreciation, debt stress and paper-market dynamics could produce very large gold gains, while Michael Howell described gold as a potential notional backing for an evolving Chinese monetary system 22 27 .
Market concentration and breadth The Kobeissi Letter said exceptionally low S&P 500 ETF volume signalled consolidation and had historically preceded pullbacks in the cited examples. Cameron Dawson highlighted deteriorating breadth, with much of the index weaker despite the headline market remaining near highs, while technology was described as carrying the market’s gains. The Kobeissi Letter said exceptionally low S&P 500 ETF volume signalled consolidation and had historically preceded pullbacks in the cited examples 13 . Cameron Dawson highlighted deteriorating breadth, with much of the index weaker despite the headline market remaining near highs, while technology was described as carrying the market’s gains 15 17 .
Bitcoin’s maturation Eric Balchunas characterised Bitcoin as being in a transition toward a more established asset class after gaining Wall Street, government and ETF acceptance. He said future progress would require lower volatility, weaker correlation, stronger affordability messaging and resilience against quantum, AI or competing-network threats. Eric Balchunas characterised Bitcoin as being in a transition toward a more established asset class after gaining Wall Street, government and ETF acceptance. He said future progress would require lower volatility, weaker correlation, stronger affordability messaging and resilience against quantum, AI or competing-network threats 35 .
BI
+2833 voices