Gold attracted bullish structural claims, but the broader market discussion stressed fragile AI valuations, inflation and high yields.
CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Gold $4,220 +1.5% Fed 4.00% S&P 500 7,812 +0.6% Copper $6.71 +2.1% closes of Oct 9
The period’s material focused on gold’s potential recovery as the dollar and Treasury yields showed signs of turning, while other commentary linked gold demand to fiscal, monetary and geopolitical concerns 9 15 27 . Bitcoin’s rebound was described as restoring some confidence, but open interest remained below its peak 17 25 . AI, energy and markets were discussed through a more sceptical lens: commentators questioned whether AI revenues and infrastructure could justify valuations, while higher oil, tariffs and yields were seen as inflationary risks 19 24 27 . Followed topics including Federal Reserve System, IPO, Meta Platforms, Inc. and Artificial Intelligence received no attention in the supplied evidence, despite Artificial Intelligence being separately listed as followed with zero items 1 32 .
What happened
Gold showed signs of breaking out as the dollar and US Treasury futures may be turning, supporting bullish structural claims for gold.9 15 27
5 of 19
Debate over AI's macro effect split between views that the AI build‑out is currently inflationary and that it will be disinflationary in time.27
1 of 19
Concerns were raised that AI revenues and token economics may not be growing fast enough to justify massive capital expenditure and valuations.19 24
2 of 19
Show 2 more Show fewer
An alternative view argued AI agent adoption could speed settlement, compress spreads and drive a new crypto cycle.11
1 of 19
Bitcoin rallied restoring some confidence but open interest remained well below prior peaks.17 25
1 of 19
“The reasons for gold to stage another rally are building...”
Where they disagree Whether AI will be inflationary or disinflationary
AI is inflationary now27
1 voice
AI will be disinflationary27
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
36 of 41 voices lean bullish on gold. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 19 calls open.
Where they stand · gold
i
Reading the chart ✕ COMEX gold futures · Google Finance
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 9 Full · since Jul 13 COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Sep 15 Oct 1 Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Felix is positioned in the debasement trade (gold and metals) and expects it to do well over the next year or so, willing to ride short-term downside. Brent Johnson · Sep 13 · up — Gold is probably going a lot higher, and gold and the dollar can rise together. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Chris Marcus · Oct 9 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Robin Brooks · Oct 9 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 Oct 1 Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Chris Marcus · Oct 9 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Robin Brooks · Oct 9 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. COMEX gold futures, 2026-07-13 to 2026-10-09, with 41 desk voices' positions $4,000 $4,250 $4,500 $4,750 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Felix is positioned in the debasement trade (gold and metals) and expects it to do well over the next year or so, willing to ride short-term downside. Brent Johnson · Sep 13 · up — Gold is probably going a lot higher, and gold and the dollar can rise together. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · up — He would rather hold gold as duration than TLT, and sees oil-exporter surpluses returning as a bullish driver for gold. Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference. jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months. Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio. Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration. James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test. Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again. Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up. Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks. Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken. Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break. Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing. Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial. jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role. John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper. Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000. Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it. Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two. Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows. Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up. Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong. jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns. Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake. Chris Marcus · Oct 9 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway. David Scutt · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400. Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months. Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon. Robin Brooks · Oct 9 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building. COMEX gold futures rose from $4,006 to $4,220 since Jul 13. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 36 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 range-bound.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Bitcoin ≥ $85,000 : James Stanley. Called it on Oct 2. Bitcoin $85,489 on Oct 2.
○ AI companies to generate ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032 : The Kobeissi Letter.
○ Bitcoin to drop almost 50% if S&P 500 drops 10-20% : Mike McGlone.
○ OpenAI+Anthropic together to reach $1trn in ARR by 2045 : Bob Elliott.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,812 now, +2.4% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level” S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000. They said Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000. Distance 7,812 now, +2.4% to go. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Wed
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 10 Nov CPI · Tue
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Paul Cronin : “no Fed rate hike this year” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 4 say yes, 0 say no. Natalie Scott-Gray Todd Horwitz Adrian Day Gary Wagner
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU). 1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,812, +28.0% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
6 Oct Bitcoin · Wed 2027
Gareth Soloway : “Bitcoin to 100,000 within a year” (Oct 6). Bitcoin is at $82,364, +21.4% to go.Settles on the close of Oct 6 (Bitcoin).
29 Mar Gold · Wed 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Gold over $5,000 within 18 months” (Sep 29). Gold is at $4,220, +18.5% to go.Settles on the close of Mar 29 (COMEX gold futures).
The voices
Gary Bohm
The AI build‑out is currently inflationary because the US lacks sufficient infrastructure and energy and hyperscalers are competing for debt capital, yet he also noted Kevin Warsh expects AI to be disinflationary eventually.27
open: Gold ≥ $5,000 Joseph Wang
AI revenues don't appear to be growing fast enough to justify the CapEx and valuations, with token costs falling and reported revenue uncertainty creating market jitteriness.19
Jordi Visser
AI‑agent adoption will drive a faster, lower‑spread financial system and kick off a renewed crypto cycle via demand for compute, stablecoins, tokenization and Bitcoin.11
CM Chris Marcus
Gold demand is rising across retail, institutional and sovereign levels and miners should profit even if prices merely hold, implying a structural case for gold and possible revaluation.27
Robin Brooks
The reasons for gold to stage another rally are building and he'll discuss what drove gold's 2025 run and what it would take for a similar boom.15
open: Fed on hold by Oct 31 ST StoneX
Gold is breaking out after a brutal sell‑off as the dollar and US Treasury futures—both key drivers—show signs they may be turning.9
Bloomberg
Bitcoin's recent rally restored some confidence but open interest remains well off its peak.17 25
4 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Brent Johnson, GoldRepublic Global, Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
More from the desk Gold and monetary stress David Scutt argued that gold’s breakout could be supported if the dollar weakens and Treasury futures recover from extreme conditions. Robin Brooks said the forces behind another gold rally were building, while Chris Marcus claimed central-bank and government interest in gold as collateral made a revaluation highly probable. David Scutt argued that gold’s breakout could be supported if the dollar weakens and Treasury futures recover from extreme conditions 9 . Robin Brooks said the forces behind another gold rally were building 15 , while Chris Marcus claimed central-bank and government interest in gold as collateral made a revaluation highly probable 27 .
AI valuation and infrastructure risk Joseph Wang said AI revenue growth appeared insufficient to justify the scale of capital expenditure, with OpenAI’s revenue reporting disputed and Anthropic still losing money despite large revenues. Bob Elliott characterised the market as a bet on parabolic AI growth while spending growth looked increasingly linear. Concerns also centred on inadequate US electricity capacity for promised data centres. Joseph Wang said AI revenue growth appeared insufficient to justify the scale of capital expenditure, with OpenAI’s revenue reporting disputed and Anthropic still losing money despite large revenues 19 . Bob Elliott characterised the market as a bet on parabolic AI growth while spending growth looked increasingly linear 24 . Concerns also centred on inadequate US electricity capacity for promised data centres 19 22 .
Inflation, oil and yields Lance Roberts likewise linked oil and elevated growth to inflation near 3%, while Razan Hilal identified the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.36% as a possible resistance area but warned of pullback risk. Lance Roberts likewise linked oil and elevated growth to inflation near 3%, while Razan Hilal identified the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.36% as a possible resistance area but warned of pullback risk 21 32 .
Bitcoin and crypto positioning Bloomberg’s items said Bitcoin’s rally restored some confidence, but open interest remained well below its peak. Jordi Visser linked AI-driven demand for compute, stablecoins and tokenisation with a possible new crypto cycle that included Bitcoin. Bloomberg’s items said Bitcoin’s rally restored some confidence, but open interest remained well below its peak 17 25 . Jordi Visser linked AI-driven demand for compute, stablecoins and tokenisation with a possible new crypto cycle that included Bitcoin 11 .
Geopolitics and economic spillovers Richard D. Wolff argued that the United States should leave the Iran conflict and warned that tanker insurance costs and disrupted oil flows would intensify inflation. Richard D. Wolff argued that the United States should leave the Iran conflict and warned that tanker insurance costs and disrupted oil flows would intensify inflation 10 .
+1419 voices
