The central dispute was whether AI-led demand and asset concentration can persist, or whether inflation, rates and financing stress will expose a broader bubble.
Dollar 121.38 −0.3% Oct 2 CPI 3.35% +0.05 pts Aug Gold $4,212 +1.3% Fed 4.00% Bitcoin $82,623 +1.2% Copper $6.67 +1.5% closes of Oct 2–Oct 9
The period’s material focused on a strained macro backdrop: persistent inflation, higher oil and yields, dollar strength, narrow equity-market breadth, and concern that AI investment is amplifying both market concentration and inflation risks 3 9 11 23 . Gold and Bitcoin were discussed as alternative or defensive assets, but views diverged sharply on their near-term prospects 9 14 17 19 26 . AI infrastructure remained a major theme, with bullish demand claims competing with warnings that financing, valuations, IPOs and delivery constraints were becoming fragile 5 6 7 16 27 33 . The followed Federal Reserve System received no direct attention in the pool, despite related discussion of Fed policy and Kevin Warsh 23 26 .
What happened
Discussion highlighted narrow equity breadth, rising yields and oil, and concerns that AI investment is amplifying market concentration and inflation risks.1 2 3
3 of 29
Debate over safe havens split between bearish views for Bitcoin and bullish or defensive views for gold, silver and other assets.9 19 26
3 of 29
AI infrastructure was contested: some said demand is off the charts and will continue, while others warned of IPO postponements, dodgy metrics and delivery/debt issues at data-center firms.5 7 27 33
4 of 29
Show 1 more Show fewer
Voices argued over dollar direction with some expecting a short-term pullback but longer-term dollar strength, while others warned a dollar surge could force global selling and higher yields.17 19
2 of 29
“The breadth is horrible.”
Where they disagree Near-term outlook for gold and Bitcoin
MM Bitcoin to lead decline9
1 voice
Gold/silver/Bitcoin as bond hedge19
1 voice
JI Debasement trade assets win26
1 voice
The desk How the desk is calling it
46 of 60 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Calls settled lately: 1 right. Next to settle: CPI on Oct 14; 13 calls open.
Where they stand · the Fed's path
i
Reading the chart ✕ dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis
An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.
Calls · since Sep 4 Full · since Jul 13 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-07, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 9 · up — The Fed has shifted from rate cuts to discussing rate hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · up — Brooks argues the Fed should hike 25bps at next week's meeting, since the price of not hiking is high. Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Adrian Day · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 7 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Luke Gromen · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. Peter Boockvar · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-07, where the desk's voices took positions 4% 4.50% 5% Sep 15 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 9 · up — The Fed has shifted from rate cuts to discussing rate hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · up — Brooks argues the Fed should hike 25bps at next week's meeting, since the price of not hiking is high. Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Adrian Day · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 7 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Luke Gromen · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. Peter Boockvar · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. 2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-13 to 2026-10-07, with 60 desk voices' positions 4% 4.50% 5% Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Fed upper target 2-year yield hike The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 9 · up — The Fed has shifted from rate cuts to discussing rate hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 10 · up — Brooks argues the Fed should hike 25bps at next week's meeting, since the price of not hiking is high. Conks · Sep 11 · up — The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. Dario Perkins · Sep 11 · up — Perkins expects Warsh to hike rates, arguing his credibility depends on it. Felix Jauvin · Sep 11 · up — Fed odds have shifted to ~70% for a hike; he thinks it should be closer to 50-50 and expects a possible insurance/credibility hike. Luke Gromen · Sep 11 · up — The Fed hiking rates will crush its credibility and push it into a 1980s Brazil-style position. Quinn Thompson · Sep 11 · up — It will be very difficult for the Fed not to hike over coming meetings; base case shifting toward a hike. Ray Dalio · Sep 11 · down — Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 11 · up — The Fed is back to a higher-for-longer stance, with markets pricing a September hike rather than cuts. Anna Wong · Sep 12 · up — Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. Eric Balchunas · Sep 12 · down — Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 12 · up — Brooks argues the Fed must hike next week, calling it a grave mistake not to deliver. Robin Brooks · Sep 13 · up — Brooks says Warsh is boxed into hiking rates. Luke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction. Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish. Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes. Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists. Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields. Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path. Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift. Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell. Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month. Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain. Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary. Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower. David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings. Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October. Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027. Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike. Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come. Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October. Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year. Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy. Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over. James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike. Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time. Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate. Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous. Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble. Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening. Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere. Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds. Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year. Adrian Day · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited. Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms. Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 7 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive. Luke Gromen · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt. Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end. Peter Boockvar · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates. The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.26% to 4.77% since Jul 13. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 46 expect more hikes, 8 expect a pause or cuts, 6 expect a hold.
Their record ✓ 1 ✗ 0
✓ Bitcoin ≥ $85,000 : James Stanley. Called it on Oct 2. Bitcoin $85,489 on Oct 2.
○ Bitcoin to drop almost 50% if S&P 500 drops 10-20% : Mike McGlone.
○ OpenAI+Anthropic together to reach $1trn in ARR by 2045 : Bob Elliott.
○ Dollar above 101 on the Dixie triggers a chaotic unwind : Luke Gromen.
What settles next
Near the mark
○ Open · by Dec 31 Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end” S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. They said Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575. Distance 7,765 now, +3.0% to go by Dec 31. source ↗ ○ Open · no deadline Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level” S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,000 7,250 7,500 7,750 8,000 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 target ≥ 8,000 Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000. They said Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000. Distance 7,765 now, +3.0% to go. source ↗ 14 Oct CPI · Wed
No dated calls yet. Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
28 Oct FOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no. Keith McCullough Robin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision. 31 Dec Fed · Thu
Paul Cronin : “no Fed rate hike this year” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
31 Dec Fed · Thu
Adrian Day : “another quarter-point Fed hike by end of 2026” (Oct 8). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
1 Apr S&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter : “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,765, +28.8% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
6 Oct Bitcoin · Wed 2027
Gareth Soloway : “Bitcoin to 100,000 within a year” (Oct 6). Bitcoin is at $82,623, +21.0% to go.Settles on the close of Oct 6 (Bitcoin).
29 Mar Gold · Wed 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Gold over $5,000 within 18 months” (Sep 29). Gold is at $4,212, +18.7% to go.Settles on the close of Mar 29 (COMEX gold futures).
29 Sep Bitcoin · Fri 2028
Lawrence Lepard : “Bitcoin to $200k-$300k in the next two years” (Sep 29). Bitcoin is at $82,623, +142.1% to go.Settles on the close of Sep 29 (Bitcoin).
The voices
MM Mike McGlone
Bitcoin has been a leading indicator of weakness and I prefer selling rallies because if equities fall bitcoin is likely to accelerate downward.9
Luke Gromen
For average investors expressing a bearish bond view, gold, silver and some Bitcoin are preferable, and gold would be the final survivor in a systemic unwind.19
JI jim iuorio
If the Fed returns to buying long-duration bonds, debasement-play assets like gold, silver, platinum, real estate, farmland and possibly Bitcoin could benefit, and AI can be a lasting productivity force though equities might correct.26
Ed Zitron
Firmus’s revenue concentration, delivery uncertainty and debt exemplify broader problems in American AI data-center companies and reflect bubble dynamics and questionable valuations.5
SR Stacy Rasgon
Demand for AI-related infrastructure is extremely strong across the board and companies using and investing in the technology do not sound worried, so the build-out is unlikely to be broadly stopped.27
BJ Brent Johnson
The dollar may see a short-term pullback allowing a bounce in gold and the euro, but I expect materially higher dollar levels over the longer term and that higher dollar would break things globally.17
Bloomberg
The AI boom has resulted in a concentration of immense wealth and is drawing investment away from emerging markets and traditional industries, worsening trade imbalances.2
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Data-center gas turbine delivery speeds are slowing even as US orders surge, creating potential delivery constraints for the AI build-out.33
5 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: GoldRepublic Global, Jordi Visser, Max Wiethe
More from the desk Macro pressure and market breadth Speakers described persistent inflation, higher energy prices, rising yields and a strengthening dollar as continuing pressures. Speakers described persistent inflation, higher energy prices, rising yields and a strengthening dollar as continuing pressures 3 11 14 .
Gold and Bitcoin as competing defenses Other views favoured gold, silver and some Bitcoin as expressions of a debt-debasement trade, while McGlone saw Bitcoin as a leading indicator of further downside. Other views favoured gold, silver and some Bitcoin as expressions of a debt-debasement trade, while McGlone saw Bitcoin as a leading indicator of further downside 9 19 26 .
AI investment: strong demand versus bubble risk Stacy Rasgon said AI-related demand remained strong and that operating companies were still increasingly positive, while Jim Iuorio argued that AI was a genuine long-term productivity force even if the equity trade could still fail. Conversely, Ed Zitron described Firmus and comparable data-center companies as financially fragile, and Bloomberg-linked items highlighted concentrated wealth, repricing risk and disappointing AI-infrastructure listings. Stacy Rasgon said AI-related demand remained strong and that operating companies were still increasingly positive, while Jim Iuorio argued that AI was a genuine long-term productivity force even if the equity trade could still fail 26 27 . Conversely, Ed Zitron described Firmus and comparable data-center companies as financially fragile, and Bloomberg-linked items highlighted concentrated wealth, repricing risk and disappointing AI-infrastructure listings 2 5 6 7 .
Financing and physical bottlenecks The expected postponement of Firmus’s IPO was presented as a warning for other proposed AI listings. The expected postponement of Firmus’s IPO was presented as a warning for other proposed AI listings 7 .
Dollar, debt and geopolitical stress Brent Johnson allowed for a short-term dollar pullback and a bounce in gold, but expected higher dollar levels over the longer term and warned that excessive strength could break things. Luke Gromen instead focused on a potentially destabilising dollar-and-yields spiral, arguing that gold would be the ultimate survivor in a severe debt and liquidity crisis. Brent Johnson allowed for a short-term dollar pullback and a bounce in gold, but expected higher dollar levels over the longer term and warned that excessive strength could break things 17 . Luke Gromen instead focused on a potentially destabilising dollar-and-yields spiral, arguing that gold would be the ultimate survivor in a severe debt and liquidity crisis 19 .
+2429 voices
