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Federal Reserve System

September 2026 · 107 voices
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Entity · financial institution

September 2026 · 107 of the 74 voices we track · 601 mentions

Sep 1 → Oct 1, 05:30 ET · Last update Sep 16, 11:37 ET (for the window to Aug 1, 05:30)

September 2026Live view →
Sceptical

Commentary fixated on Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication shift, hawkish dissents, and market-led tightening. Multiple voices argue Warsh eschews forward guidance, offers sparse pressers, and may even cut the number of meetings, while long-end yields surged as markets “do the Fed’s work,” raising credibility questions if rhetoric isn’t backed by hikes 13467891011. Others dispute the Fed’s primacy, citing supply-driven yield pressures and fiscal/AI capex crowding-out, or arguing hiking now yields little disinflation and unnecessary activity losses 512. Warsh’s stance draws sharp criticism from Luke Gromen as unworkable under debt and crisis dynamics, with expectations the Fed would ultimately expand its balance sheet despite tough talk 1319.

From the window to Aug 1, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.

Where the voices land

All voices 37 voices

6 dovish31 hawkish

Strongly dovish

  • DLDaniel LacalleStrongly dovish The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation. “The risk is increasingly not inflation accelerating, but the Fed staying tight for too long.” Open the post Rate hikes are useless for the current inflation… · 30 Sept
  • LGLuke GromenStrongly dovish The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet. Open the item Medium-to-long term thoughts on LT USTs, etc. · 14 Sept
  • EBEric BalchunasStrongly dovish Balchunas thinks the "Rate Hike Camp" is wrong again — he does not expect the Fed to hike rates. “another reason why I think the Rate Hike Camp is going to be wrong (again)” Open the post Increased interest payments (which is already li… · 12 Sept
  • GBGary BohmStrongly dovish Bohm argues the Fed should not hike, saying hikes won't work and would stall the economy around a barrel shortage. Open the post The shortage is barrels and if Fed policy tries … · 4 Sept

Dovish

  • RBRobin BrooksDovish Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data. “Today's inflation data suggest the Fed shouldn't hike in October” Open the post The global bond market sell-off casts its shadow… · 30 Sept
  • ETElizabeth ThomasDovish She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls. “I think the Fed is going to have to tap the brakes on this hiking cycle.” ▶ 10:59 U.S. Bonds Are Trading Like an Emerging Market w… · 28 Sept

Hawkish

  • NSNatalie Scott-GrayHawkish The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line. “supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve holds a relatively hawkish line” ▶ 0:03 What Base Metals Tightness Means for Copper Smel… · 29 Sept
  • JCJeffrey ChristianHawkish Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively. “We think that the Fed will raise interest rates at least one more time, maybe two more times” ▶ 33:53 Gold Is Getting Crushed—Is This The Start Of A B… · 29 Sept
  • LLLawrence LepardHawkish He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat. “We've had one hike. There'll probably be a couple more” ▶ 24:19 No Living Investor Has Seen A Time Like This Bef… · 29 Sept
  • JBJim BiancoHawkish He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously. “Stop cutting rates and then eventually maybe start raising rates. And if you don't, we'll abandon the bond market.” ▶ 10:26 How The Bond Market Can ‘Wreck’ Every Other Asse… · 28 Sept
  • JSJames StanleyHawkish Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm. “that's with a Fed rate hike, a hawkish assurance of another rate hike” ▶ 8:45 10-Year Yields Jump and the S&P 500 Hits a Recor… · 28 Sept
  • JSJeff SniderHawkish The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks. ▶ 0:00 Rare Recession Indicator Is ‘Screaming’—No One’s… · 26 Sept
  • MLMichael LebowitzHawkish The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year. “I think that's probably the course of action here. The question is, is it one or two or three or four?” ▶ 49:37 Market Starting To Crack Under High Bond Yields?… · 26 Sept
  • DCDCPHawkish DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike. “They cut too much, and now they got to hike.” ▶ 53:02 The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup · 25 Sept
  • ALArthur LafferHawkish Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed. ▶ 14:50 Art Laffer On Bond Market MELTDOWN: How Bad Coul… · 24 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesHawkish Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. “Thots on the Fed hike: Hiking with elevated levels of govt debt it is stimulative.” Open the post Thots on the Fed hike: Hiking with elevated lev… · 16 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraHawkish The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Open the post 🇺🇸FOMC +25bp & 🇯🇵BOJ +25bp 👆both expected … · 16 Sept
  • PBPeter BerezinHawkish Berezin thinks the improved labor momentum lowers the bar for a Fed hike later this year. “This has lowered the bar for a Fed hike later this year.” Open the post The US labor market is not on fire but underlyin… · 4 Sept

Strongly hawkish

  • JPJulian PinedaStrongly hawkish Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates. ▶ 0:00 Trade War Risk Returns and North American Curren… · 1 Oct
  • RJRory JohnstonStrongly hawkish If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance. ▶ 46:05 The Shocking Reason Gas Prices Can’t Come Down A… · 30 Sept
  • LGLaks GanapathiStrongly hawkish Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer. “they have to increase an interest rate another time this year. And they will. And then they will hold it. until mid next year” ▶ 30:51 LAKS GANAPATHI | Gold & gold proxies have been t… · 30 Sept
  • FRFawad RazaqzadaStrongly hawkish Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar. “This is because of rising expectations That the fed will be forced to tighten its belt further” ▶ 0:00 The RBA Hiked Rates and the Australian Dollar St… · 29 Sept
  • SHSteve H. HankeStrongly hawkish With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates. “under those two conditions, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates” ▶ 36:54 Bond Yields Surge: How Much Higher Before Econom… · 29 Sept
  • TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly hawkish The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. “the Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time” Open the post What is happening here. The bond market is now … · 29 Sept
  • BSBill SmeadStrongly hawkish Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987. “They cut rates 200 basis points. That's what will happen. That's what will happen when the mania breaks.” ▶ 0:00 ‘Almost 0%’ Chance Stocks Are Higher In 10 Years… · 27 Sept
  • DODoombergStrongly hawkish Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing. ▶ 0:00 DOOMBERG | All roads lead to the printer! · 27 Sept
  • JWJoseph WangStrongly hawkish The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in. ▶ 2:38 Markets Weekly September 26, 2026 · 26 Sept
  • KMKeith McCulloughStrongly hawkish He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think. ▶ 9:01 2027 Market Bloodbath: Worse Than 2022's Bear Ma… · 24 Sept
  • ARAlex RidgersStrongly hawkish He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view. “we've now firmly come out of that with a hawkish view” ▶ 0:34 Dollar Rally Runs in a Straight Line as AI Trade… · 24 Sept
  • RHRazan HilalStrongly hawkish Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals. “Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting rise above 70%” ▶ 0:01 Gold and Silver Cling to Support as Yields Test … · 24 Sept
  • HPHenry PeabodyStrongly hawkish Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real. “the risk, we think, is that we do keep rates higher longer, we do need to move higher” ▶ 8:15 Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Exp… · 24 Sept
  • BCBen CarlsonStrongly hawkish Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. “So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates” Open the post So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates … · 23 Sept
  • WPWarren PiesStrongly hawkish Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. “Warren says one more hike” Open the post RT @Wild_Randomness: RECAP 3. @WarrenPies lates… · 21 Sept
  • JTJurrien TimmerStrongly hawkish Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter. “those last two rate cuts from the Fed were premature and that they need to be reversed” Open the post Various iterations of the Taylor Rule clearly sh… · 17 Sept
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly hawkish Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. “Rates remain far too low given current conditions.” Open the post Rates remain far too low given current condition… · 16 Sept
  • DPDario PerkinsStrongly hawkish Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Open the post My guess is that the Fed just started on a quart… · 16 Sept
  • AWAnna WongStrongly hawkish Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. “A perfect test to this hypothesis will be how the long end respond next week to the likely Fed hike.” Open the post A perfect test to this hypothesis will be how th… · 12 Sept

6 dovish31 hawkish

Also asked

Policy 13 voices← against · for →

10 against3 for

Strongly against

  • BJBrent JohnsonStrongly against Johnson argues the Fed's money creation is counterfeiting that steals citizens' purchasing power and should be stopped. “they are essentially counterfeiting money, stealing the purchasing power of US citizens, and they should be stopped” Open the post When the Fed creates money out of thin air, they… · 17 Sept

Against

  • SHSteve H. HankeAgainst Hanke argues monetary policy is not about interest rates but about the money supply, implying the Fed's rate hikes are not real tightening. “monetary policy is not about interest rates. It's about changes in the money supply” ▶ 18:02 Bond Yields Surge: How Much Higher Before Econom… · 29 Sept
  • JBJim BiancoAgainst Bianco criticizes the Fed for approving almost no new banking licenses since 2008, using regulation as a barrier. “the Fed has only approved about 10 banking licenses in 18 years. It's effectively zero.” ▶ 30:19 How The Bond Market Can ‘Wreck’ Every Other Asse… · 28 Sept
  • PSPeter SchiffAgainst Schiff argues the Fed should not intervene to cap long-term yields, though he expects it will. “first of all they shouldn't intervene they should let interest rates go up but they they probably won't” ▶ 0:00 PETER SCHIFF | The Federal Reserve is going to h… · 25 Sept
  • DCDCPAgainst DCP warns the Fed hiking four times could be a policy mistake that blows up AI capex. “They could hike four times, get you a one-point hike right into an AI camp that's meltdown” ▶ 53:02 The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup · 25 Sept
  • TOTed OakleyAgainst The Fed can't bail investors out now; doing so would only make things worse. ▶ 1:03:25 Ready For A Bear Market? Most Investors Aren't |… · 24 Sept
  • DLDaniel LacalleAgainst He criticizes the Fed for inflating the debt bubble rather than sticking to its mandate. “I thought the mandate was maximum employment and price stability, not inflating the debt bubble.” Open the post The Fed is truly independent... from the real ec… · 17 Sept
  • LGLuke GromenAgainst Gromen mocks the Fed's tightening as self-defeating, since hiking worsens deficits and hands income to Boomers. “Fed hike = the Fed is trying to tighten financial conditions by giving more interest income to the upper leg of the "K"” Open the post Fed hike = the Fed is trying to tighten financia… · 16 Sept
  • DCDean CurnuttAgainst The Fed cannot bring inflation down on its own without credible fiscal help; a 10% Fed funds rate is not reasonable. “I don't think the Fed has a reasonable set of things that it can do without some help from the fiscal side.” ▶ 49:35 The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | D… · 16 Sept
  • AWAnna WongAgainst Wong thinks it would be a big mistake for the Fed to seal a rate hike on the basis of a one-off wireless phone services distortion in inflation. “Hard to believe that this category is what seals the deal for a rate hike. A big mistake.” Open the post October 2017, then Fed chair Janet Yellen talked… · 12 Sept

For

  • TKThe Kobeissi LetterFor The Fed should act on the weak labor market rather than ignore it. “The Fed cannot ignore the weak US labor market.” Open the post BREAKING: US job openings dropped -256,000 in Au… · 30 Sept
  • GBGary BohmFor The Fed will step in and create more dollars to hold rates down if yields keep climbing. “If yields keep climbing, the Federal Reserve is next. That means creating more dollars to hold rates down.” Open the post The same rising bond yields that knocked gold lo… · 28 Sept

Strongly for

  • AHArthur HayesStrongly for Either the US government or the Fed will end up printing money to absorb the AI compute and debt problem. “Choose one, both require printed money” Open the post AI safety first: Either the USG assumes Anthrop… · 13 Sept
Direction 3 voices← negative · positive →

2 negative1 positive

Bearish

  • LGLuke GromenBearish Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. “They were so CERTAIN that Fed rate hikes would calm the long end, but they were wrong...and they will continue to be wrong” Open the post The bond mafia has 45 years of experience workin… · 30 Sept
  • RDRay DalioDovish Dalio argues the Fed is unable to manage the stagflationary environment, caught between tightening and easing. “a stagflationary environment that the Federal Reserve struggles to manage” Open the post This happens as long-term rates rise relative to… · 11 Sept

Hawkish

  • MEMohamed El-ErianHawkish El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. “Chair Warsh’s pushback against what “forward guidance” has devolved into is already gaining traction abroad.” Open the post It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Fed… · 24 Sept

Mentions

601 in September 2026
Mon 31Tue 15 · 114Thu 1

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